- Energy is economic. Its value is what it replaces, in human labor in particular. A gallon of gasoline does the work of 50 people. And it costs $3.33/gal. That's huge and very cheap. If gasoline cost the same as beer served at the bar/pub, it would be around $30/gal. Ponder that the next time you fill your tank.
- Energy is food, but it doesn't have to be. Organic farming gets around the standard oil-based inputs and focuses on improving soil fertility the hard way, via careful monitoring, crop rotation, and human labor. This means we don't have to starve just because oil is getting expensive. This also means that a Die Off is NOT NECESSARY. We may have to bicycle to work, but we don't have to die. This is VERY important to understand.
- Energy is convenient thanks to a lot of labor saving devices we've grown up with. Most of these run on electricity, which run on power plants, which involve oil at some point, even their parts or delivery or the insulation on your wiring. However, it is possible to synthesize oil from coal, from various plants including pond scum algae. We don't have that scaled up to provide all our needs and we probably won't for some years after we're all used to bicycling either. Growing fuel is less convenient than drilling it out of the ground, but growing it involves fewer wars.
- Cheap solar exists as patents, yet is not currently out as products. When the money is right, the products will show up. Cheap solar replaces grid-based electric uses pretty evenly, but you should expect a more decentralized power generation system when you've got cheap solar panels on your roof and in various fields of bad land or exposed rock or sand or over every parking lot and commercial building roof. Its going to be everywhere. Cheap solar takes very little maintenance and the power is predictable based on sunny days so it can be engineered for.
- Wind power works best when its big (Pi-R-squared), not small, and requires lots of maintenance because it destroys itself and isn't very efficient. The best place for wind turbines is on tops of ridge lines where the air is less turbulent and the wind speed is constant. Variation is speed and direction and changes in either physically break turbines, which then require expert attention and parts to repair, neither of which is quick or free. Solar is better.
- World trade does not END just because there's no oil, or oil is very expensive. Goods carried can be brought around the world using SAILS and modern materials and automation, such as wire cables and electric winches. Computer controls can do this very well, provided maintenance is done and GPS remains in use along with weather forecasting. A modern ship is a lot like an expert system supercomputer. It does a lot of the hard things for the captain and crew, including navigation and ballast control and communications. Apply this to sailing vessels connecting to weather satellites and buoys and you can avoid most of the hazards of navigation pretty easily, most of the time. No more blundering into typhoons or becalmned regions of ocean, and supplies can be air-dropped in an emergency. Modern desalination means no running out of fresh water, and sufficient food stocks and solar panels keeps everything running fine, just fine. And mean it. Being a sailor on a future sailing vessel, complete with electric winches and masts welded to the top of the shipping containers? Oh yeah, that's gonna be awesome.
- Indifferent Socialism is probably going to be our dominant form of govt. If you die, nobody really cares. You better look out for yourself and your family because the govt won't. There is no legal requirement for the govt to insure you survive. Doesn't matter how you voted. We're back in Tammany Hall territory. Accept that.
- Rail and barge traffic are going to increase because they are fuel efficient, by the ton. While not as fast or convenient as a car, rail does move passengers pretty well, and lots of freight. I expect this to become the dominant form of long distance transport in the USA in coming decades. It will largely be electrified and probably not that fast thanks to traffic issues and all the fun railroad managers will have routing passengers, express lines, and freight. Its the future. Making the best of rail travel will be a lot like having a Eurail Pass, only across the American states and Canada. Aircraft are going to be for military and the very rich. If you have to ask what Very Rich means, you aren't. Many of the rich will just get their own rail cars again, like they did 100 years ago. Its a special form of elitism. They'll likely have barges and sailboats too, since that is also elite, and a way to show off and make others chase you.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Peak Oil: Advanced
Steep learning curve from beginning to advanced. The truth behind peak oil is this:
Politics: The Economics of Indifferent Socialism
This is a political post. Be warned I will be expounding on what I think is happening in America.
In my last job, I worked with graduates of top universities. Many of the people I worked with were broken, and they were by definition the failures of their schools because they worked in the same place as me, who was hired because I could fog a mirror and I showed up. I also got the job done and solved all sorts of critical issues is irrelevant to their Totalitarian wage slavery plans. Too many managers smugly believe that if their keep their employees miserable on the "Pyramid of Needs" that this will save them money and increase their own bonuses. What ACTUALLY happens is they get a high turnover rate as employees leave for humane companies that value employees and the employer ends up wasting man hours on training and mistakes. I think this is a big part of the unintended consequences of offshoring labor. You end up with managers that openly deride American workers, workers who are unhappy in their jobs and trapped in wage slavery fearful of losing even that, and productivity ends up low because morale is so bad.
The solution to this is improve morale by valuing employees properly (and I DON'T MEAN lunch), pay them well enough so they stop quitting (full medical, equivalent pay to others, no lying HR), and punish managers who don't get this through their arrogant skulls (by firing them). This is what was needed at my last job, whose name shall be nameless for legal reasons. I suspect what I found at that hellhole is pretty common in profit obsessed corporations run by psychopaths. Really common. I've read the white papers on this. The numbers are quite frightening.
The school I went to had tenured professors, who taught students to trust in big govt, while claiming to be Liberal Arts school. This is ironic since Clinton, the president at the time, shed millions of govt jobs and cut funding to schools and universities while claiming the opposite. What funding got through went to BUILDINGS rather than classrooms and teachers. Instead of paying for quality, they paid for wage slaves, trapped in a sort of cult mentality that affects many teachers. This is still true today. The way schools are funded is ridiculous. And the upper levels are pleased as can be about it, since I suspect they get paid by the square foot, not the student. I really should investigate that. I know the funds are use-it-or-lose-it but building huge gyms when the classrooms are falling apart and the bathrooms haven't been updated since 1962? Not right.
Most socialist wannabes love citing the "success" of Scandinavian socialism but ignore the way it is paid for or that the populations are tiny. In Norway, they use oil money because its the main hard currency outside of bauxite-aluminum processing. The oil is running out, the revenues are falling, and Norway is getting poorer. Eventually folks will start leaving because their lifestyles under socialism are unaffordable/unpleasant. Denmark? Both oil money and investment banking in Derivatives. They've had a pretty severe crash early on when Iceland, where they owned about half that island nation's debt, defaulted. That's where the Derivatives crash was first felt, internationally. Ireland owned a lot too, also defaulted. Finland hates socialism and is trying to figure out what to do with its immigrants and quietly working to avoid turning into France or Germany, both of whom treat their Muslim immigrants as 2nd class citizens, like America does to Mexicans. The locals feel exploited by their tax rates, the immigrants ARE exploited by employers, and nobody wants to do anything about it because the Profits come from that cheap labor source. Immigrants want profit sharing and respect, but they're taking huge advantage of the socialism, particularly education and unemployment benefits, which increases the tax burden and they're an easy target for nationalists. History doesn't exactly repeat, but it does rhyme.
Greek socialism was built on derivatives debt, kept afloat by tourism and olives, their only real source of Hard Currency. Nations tend to use Fiat currency internally, and the agreed value is often very different externally, shown in import costs. Japan doesn't grow most of its food, and that food is imported and famously expensive because the Yen isn't worth much. Japan's debt payments are 300% of their GDP, so they keep raising the debt ceiling and sell their bonds to the elderly with a promise not to default. That won't end well. Japan's economy, which isn't socialist so much as indifferent to non-bribing capitalism (small business) has a real unemployment rate of approximately 48%. It may be the most dysfunctional First-world nation on Earth. I still like their anime. I just wish they'd admit the need for competition and allow their youth a chance instead of continually crushing hope for any kind of future. A really screwed up country. I worry we'll keep heading that way ourselves. We ARE following their pattern.
Canadian socialized medicine is actually nasty-bad, according to other diabetics who live there and have posted on the subject with years of complaints. They're treated like Lepers and expected to pay for all those supplies out of pocket, which is like telling a cancer patient to cover all their hospitalization costs and chemo treatments ($400K) with their retirement fund. Its economic suicide, or murder actually. This is what Canada thinks of people with treatable chronic illness. And its getting to my point.
Most people who believe in Socialism as the inevitable and necessary future are ignorant optimists. Socialism often turns unaffordable, and benefits end up cut back for all but the very special, which is rarely YOU. And to qualify as Very Special, you need to offer a serious return on their investment in your comfort or lifespan. Kinda like capitalism. Mature socialism is going to become indifferent to The Masses of Useless Eaters and provide minimum care and calories, based on what the nation can afford and enforce without too much effort. Govt jobs tend to be done by very strict rule-followers rather than problem solvers. Thus the ruins of Detroit, Katrina, and Sandy. The bureaucrats are following the law to protect their own jobs, not fixing the problem. The problem isn't their job, you see? The law is their job. Real socialism is going to be like real govt, indifferent to the problem, strict to the law, and your life or death is irrelevant to them, just like the Diabetics in Canada. I call this Indifferent Socialism.
This is a great means of managing population surplus against economics. Becoming a survivor in a dog-eat-human kind of world will be a lot more about your own ability to make the most of your share, and hide what you can scrounge from the lazier gits who are eternally hungry for what they don't deserve and haven't earned. People like modern chairwarmers in schools and universities. We've all seen them. The ones who do nothing at their job, just enough to prevent being fired, but have long since given up trying. They want to get their pension so they can do even less, and expect us to pay it. In my degree, the real ambition of my teachers was Scotch. Really. It was scotch. Most had multiple alimonies to pay because they kept cheating on their pregnant wife with the latest coed, then lost what little they had in the divorce, then married the coed who then got pregnant and stayed home while they went with the latest coed on the next field trip. See a pattern? I sure do. They couldn't keep any money with it being handed out to ex-wives so they drowned their sorrows in Scotch, the better quality the happier they were. Replace scotch with Pot and you've described probably half the unemployed and most of the underemployed in America today. I think the govt knows this and can't see much point in offering those useless eaters fancy benefits if what they want is Doritos and Twinkies because they've got the munchies.
The post oil world does come down to population management and rather than the very energy intensive Totalitarianism, Indifference is cheaper and affordable. Its not like elected officials keep their promises, right?
In my last job, I worked with graduates of top universities. Many of the people I worked with were broken, and they were by definition the failures of their schools because they worked in the same place as me, who was hired because I could fog a mirror and I showed up. I also got the job done and solved all sorts of critical issues is irrelevant to their Totalitarian wage slavery plans. Too many managers smugly believe that if their keep their employees miserable on the "Pyramid of Needs" that this will save them money and increase their own bonuses. What ACTUALLY happens is they get a high turnover rate as employees leave for humane companies that value employees and the employer ends up wasting man hours on training and mistakes. I think this is a big part of the unintended consequences of offshoring labor. You end up with managers that openly deride American workers, workers who are unhappy in their jobs and trapped in wage slavery fearful of losing even that, and productivity ends up low because morale is so bad.
The solution to this is improve morale by valuing employees properly (and I DON'T MEAN lunch), pay them well enough so they stop quitting (full medical, equivalent pay to others, no lying HR), and punish managers who don't get this through their arrogant skulls (by firing them). This is what was needed at my last job, whose name shall be nameless for legal reasons. I suspect what I found at that hellhole is pretty common in profit obsessed corporations run by psychopaths. Really common. I've read the white papers on this. The numbers are quite frightening.
The school I went to had tenured professors, who taught students to trust in big govt, while claiming to be Liberal Arts school. This is ironic since Clinton, the president at the time, shed millions of govt jobs and cut funding to schools and universities while claiming the opposite. What funding got through went to BUILDINGS rather than classrooms and teachers. Instead of paying for quality, they paid for wage slaves, trapped in a sort of cult mentality that affects many teachers. This is still true today. The way schools are funded is ridiculous. And the upper levels are pleased as can be about it, since I suspect they get paid by the square foot, not the student. I really should investigate that. I know the funds are use-it-or-lose-it but building huge gyms when the classrooms are falling apart and the bathrooms haven't been updated since 1962? Not right.
Most socialist wannabes love citing the "success" of Scandinavian socialism but ignore the way it is paid for or that the populations are tiny. In Norway, they use oil money because its the main hard currency outside of bauxite-aluminum processing. The oil is running out, the revenues are falling, and Norway is getting poorer. Eventually folks will start leaving because their lifestyles under socialism are unaffordable/unpleasant. Denmark? Both oil money and investment banking in Derivatives. They've had a pretty severe crash early on when Iceland, where they owned about half that island nation's debt, defaulted. That's where the Derivatives crash was first felt, internationally. Ireland owned a lot too, also defaulted. Finland hates socialism and is trying to figure out what to do with its immigrants and quietly working to avoid turning into France or Germany, both of whom treat their Muslim immigrants as 2nd class citizens, like America does to Mexicans. The locals feel exploited by their tax rates, the immigrants ARE exploited by employers, and nobody wants to do anything about it because the Profits come from that cheap labor source. Immigrants want profit sharing and respect, but they're taking huge advantage of the socialism, particularly education and unemployment benefits, which increases the tax burden and they're an easy target for nationalists. History doesn't exactly repeat, but it does rhyme.
Greek socialism was built on derivatives debt, kept afloat by tourism and olives, their only real source of Hard Currency. Nations tend to use Fiat currency internally, and the agreed value is often very different externally, shown in import costs. Japan doesn't grow most of its food, and that food is imported and famously expensive because the Yen isn't worth much. Japan's debt payments are 300% of their GDP, so they keep raising the debt ceiling and sell their bonds to the elderly with a promise not to default. That won't end well. Japan's economy, which isn't socialist so much as indifferent to non-bribing capitalism (small business) has a real unemployment rate of approximately 48%. It may be the most dysfunctional First-world nation on Earth. I still like their anime. I just wish they'd admit the need for competition and allow their youth a chance instead of continually crushing hope for any kind of future. A really screwed up country. I worry we'll keep heading that way ourselves. We ARE following their pattern.
Canadian socialized medicine is actually nasty-bad, according to other diabetics who live there and have posted on the subject with years of complaints. They're treated like Lepers and expected to pay for all those supplies out of pocket, which is like telling a cancer patient to cover all their hospitalization costs and chemo treatments ($400K) with their retirement fund. Its economic suicide, or murder actually. This is what Canada thinks of people with treatable chronic illness. And its getting to my point.
Most people who believe in Socialism as the inevitable and necessary future are ignorant optimists. Socialism often turns unaffordable, and benefits end up cut back for all but the very special, which is rarely YOU. And to qualify as Very Special, you need to offer a serious return on their investment in your comfort or lifespan. Kinda like capitalism. Mature socialism is going to become indifferent to The Masses of Useless Eaters and provide minimum care and calories, based on what the nation can afford and enforce without too much effort. Govt jobs tend to be done by very strict rule-followers rather than problem solvers. Thus the ruins of Detroit, Katrina, and Sandy. The bureaucrats are following the law to protect their own jobs, not fixing the problem. The problem isn't their job, you see? The law is their job. Real socialism is going to be like real govt, indifferent to the problem, strict to the law, and your life or death is irrelevant to them, just like the Diabetics in Canada. I call this Indifferent Socialism.
This is a great means of managing population surplus against economics. Becoming a survivor in a dog-eat-human kind of world will be a lot more about your own ability to make the most of your share, and hide what you can scrounge from the lazier gits who are eternally hungry for what they don't deserve and haven't earned. People like modern chairwarmers in schools and universities. We've all seen them. The ones who do nothing at their job, just enough to prevent being fired, but have long since given up trying. They want to get their pension so they can do even less, and expect us to pay it. In my degree, the real ambition of my teachers was Scotch. Really. It was scotch. Most had multiple alimonies to pay because they kept cheating on their pregnant wife with the latest coed, then lost what little they had in the divorce, then married the coed who then got pregnant and stayed home while they went with the latest coed on the next field trip. See a pattern? I sure do. They couldn't keep any money with it being handed out to ex-wives so they drowned their sorrows in Scotch, the better quality the happier they were. Replace scotch with Pot and you've described probably half the unemployed and most of the underemployed in America today. I think the govt knows this and can't see much point in offering those useless eaters fancy benefits if what they want is Doritos and Twinkies because they've got the munchies.
The post oil world does come down to population management and rather than the very energy intensive Totalitarianism, Indifference is cheaper and affordable. Its not like elected officials keep their promises, right?
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Scooter Clothing: Form Follows Function
We've gotten used to cheap clothes thanks to Globalism giving us penny an hour tailors working in literal sweatshops in Dominican Republic, Mexico, Vietnam, and China. You can buy a teeshirt with any sort of logo on it for almost nothing. It's shapeless and durable enough to last a year or two of weekly wear, but this sort of thing ends without cheap transportation.
When cargo ships have to start employing sails or kites to make their trip economical again, thanks to rising fuel prices, what gets carried had better offer significant profit per volume. That means spices and valuable things, not teeshirts or other cheap clothing. This is a primary reason I think being a Tailor is going to make a real comeback as a profession, along with cobbler and machinist. All these imports are going to get slower and more expensive, less profitable. If we can make a product here, we will.
For the last century, bicycles have been a mature technology. There have been some improvements, like multispeed gear shifters in 1897 which surprised me because 10-speed bicycles weren't a thing until the 1970's, or so I thought. I suspect effective marketing was responsible. 100 years ago, bicyclists wore woolen clothes, no helmet, usually a hat and possibly gloves, a scarf and maybe goggles. There are still bicycling clubs in Britain and France which dress in period costume. It was very proper for the exercise craze that swept the world in the time of Kellogg and the belief that a fit person would live longer or forever. This does not turn out to be true. Eating less will let you live longer. Getting ENOUGH exercise will delay or deny heart attacks if you have good genes. The bicyclists of the time would stop for tea in the various villages and manors converted to hotels for tea and sandwiches, then press on with newly repaired inner tubes, rain or shine. You have to admire English cyclists for riding no matter the weather.
Modern aluminum or carbon fiber framed bicycles are light and fast. They use the latest technology to compete in the Tour de France, which is a massively grueling competition across France and into the Alps and Pyrenees. Racers need every advantage so they usually have the typical skin tight spandex clothes rather than tweed woolens. This is a widely followed sport for bicyclists, one of the reasons I pay attention to it, and the gear and clothing are emulated by cyclists who admire or want to duplicate that level of competition and fitness. Thus your weekends will find bright yellow jerseys on the side of the road, pedaling along and looking very serious.
A fit bicyclist is skinny, like an eel, and covered in bright colors and patches of black and slips through the air so they can go faster. Bicycle clubs that focus on speed rather than tourism compete heavily with components so their clothing is very functional at getting every trace of speed they can, mostly to keep up with the others and not be left behind. Form follows function.
Skintight riding clothes for competition are inappropriate workwear unless you work in a gym. Hard exercise doesn't do good things for personal hygiene in an office either. This is one of the reasons that bicycling to work or school needs to be balanced and less strenuous, allowing more conservative clothing and hopefully sufficient aeration to avoid sweaty smells. Usually you accomplish this by riding more slowly on a different sort of bicycle, more upright. During WW2, the code breakers who were mostly women, at Bletchley Park bicycled to work in military uniforms with skirts.
The most fuel efficient personal vehicle is the 49cc scooter and basic safety gear is a must to save your skin and your life in a wreck. Most people choose to either wear street clothes and risk bad injury but ride in comfort, or they go with full motorcycle leathers despite the low 20-30 mph top speed. You can die at 15 mph, keep in mind so its not paranoid, its just that full leathers on a scooter might be a bit much for a 10-15 minute ride to work. You don't do that on a bicycle, after all.
I can see real value in tailored scooter gear, in style, for each season. Safety gear works best if it fits properly, and tightly on the rider, so it doesn't slip during a crash and injure you or expose you to injury. A riding jacket should be skin tight with the appropriate vents so you don't get all sweaty in the summer and don't freeze in the winter. The essential armor underneath are plastic plates with foam rubber so the impacts won't shatter your arms or collarbone, with armored fabric that won't tear as you slide across pavement, hopefully not hitting obstacles that break bones or kill you. Not to be grim, but we all know of people killed in motorcycle accidents, and a scooter is a type of motorcycle. Their low speed makes them comparatively safe, but there is still some danger from other vehicles.
Motorcycle wear is meant to catch the eyes of drivers in split seconds to save the motorcyclists life. They are very LOUD colors. Not exactly discrete or fashionable unless you are a rap star. Replace the loud with something at least a bit fashionable in form and color. Personally I don't like black leather. I had a black leather jacket. It was glove leather and smelled like fish on a hot day, cod liver oil to be specific. I have no idea why. Lots of old motorcyclists wear black leather jackets because they are both traditional and functional, I just don't like them. Too many pirate cosplayers are wearing black leather with big bright steel zippers like the thug of a 1980's action movie, waiting around for Stallone to punch out their spine. These cosplayers typically end up drinking too much at biker bars, wrecking on a corner, and if they aren't killed, spend the rest of their lives operating an electric wheelchair with a drinking straw. I don't want that. Neither do you. But I do want some better looking scooter gear, in browns and tans and maybe some blue piping and some reflective strips. Something I wouldn't be ashamed to be seen wearing at a decent restaurant or the grocery store.
I saw several motorcycles out yesterday in the Winter sun. The weather that looks warm but the shadows have ice in them and the wind cuts through you. I also saw a scooterist, wearing a clear face helmet and sunglasses. He looked about 60, probably a retiree living in one of the local apartments or a house, motoring around with obvious grocery bags sticking out of the top of panniers behind him, including a loaf of french baguette. He was wearing non-armored street clothes, looked like a London Fog jacket from the 1980's. I used to have one of those.
While that's one approach to scootering, most scooterists recommend armor. I just wonder about armor that's still comfortable work wear. With linings and a cut that appears to be appropriate for the workplace and the riding season. Most motorcycle jackets are loud and flashy stripes which belong on a Power Ranger or black leather. I don't belong in either. I have more class than that. Unless I can find something right, I may end up working with my Mom to tailor something which actually fits me properly, or modify a jacket until it does. I'm sure that kevlar thread is expensive, as is the stronger reinforced fabrics, but expensive doesn't mean unaffordable. Particularly if it fits properly and is comfortable. Its only reasonable that someone else has already done this so I just need to search harder and I'll find gear that's sufficiently conservative in appearance and comfortable to wear. When I find it, I'll post here.
When cargo ships have to start employing sails or kites to make their trip economical again, thanks to rising fuel prices, what gets carried had better offer significant profit per volume. That means spices and valuable things, not teeshirts or other cheap clothing. This is a primary reason I think being a Tailor is going to make a real comeback as a profession, along with cobbler and machinist. All these imports are going to get slower and more expensive, less profitable. If we can make a product here, we will.
For the last century, bicycles have been a mature technology. There have been some improvements, like multispeed gear shifters in 1897 which surprised me because 10-speed bicycles weren't a thing until the 1970's, or so I thought. I suspect effective marketing was responsible. 100 years ago, bicyclists wore woolen clothes, no helmet, usually a hat and possibly gloves, a scarf and maybe goggles. There are still bicycling clubs in Britain and France which dress in period costume. It was very proper for the exercise craze that swept the world in the time of Kellogg and the belief that a fit person would live longer or forever. This does not turn out to be true. Eating less will let you live longer. Getting ENOUGH exercise will delay or deny heart attacks if you have good genes. The bicyclists of the time would stop for tea in the various villages and manors converted to hotels for tea and sandwiches, then press on with newly repaired inner tubes, rain or shine. You have to admire English cyclists for riding no matter the weather.
Modern aluminum or carbon fiber framed bicycles are light and fast. They use the latest technology to compete in the Tour de France, which is a massively grueling competition across France and into the Alps and Pyrenees. Racers need every advantage so they usually have the typical skin tight spandex clothes rather than tweed woolens. This is a widely followed sport for bicyclists, one of the reasons I pay attention to it, and the gear and clothing are emulated by cyclists who admire or want to duplicate that level of competition and fitness. Thus your weekends will find bright yellow jerseys on the side of the road, pedaling along and looking very serious.
A fit bicyclist is skinny, like an eel, and covered in bright colors and patches of black and slips through the air so they can go faster. Bicycle clubs that focus on speed rather than tourism compete heavily with components so their clothing is very functional at getting every trace of speed they can, mostly to keep up with the others and not be left behind. Form follows function.
Skintight riding clothes for competition are inappropriate workwear unless you work in a gym. Hard exercise doesn't do good things for personal hygiene in an office either. This is one of the reasons that bicycling to work or school needs to be balanced and less strenuous, allowing more conservative clothing and hopefully sufficient aeration to avoid sweaty smells. Usually you accomplish this by riding more slowly on a different sort of bicycle, more upright. During WW2, the code breakers who were mostly women, at Bletchley Park bicycled to work in military uniforms with skirts.
The most fuel efficient personal vehicle is the 49cc scooter and basic safety gear is a must to save your skin and your life in a wreck. Most people choose to either wear street clothes and risk bad injury but ride in comfort, or they go with full motorcycle leathers despite the low 20-30 mph top speed. You can die at 15 mph, keep in mind so its not paranoid, its just that full leathers on a scooter might be a bit much for a 10-15 minute ride to work. You don't do that on a bicycle, after all.
I can see real value in tailored scooter gear, in style, for each season. Safety gear works best if it fits properly, and tightly on the rider, so it doesn't slip during a crash and injure you or expose you to injury. A riding jacket should be skin tight with the appropriate vents so you don't get all sweaty in the summer and don't freeze in the winter. The essential armor underneath are plastic plates with foam rubber so the impacts won't shatter your arms or collarbone, with armored fabric that won't tear as you slide across pavement, hopefully not hitting obstacles that break bones or kill you. Not to be grim, but we all know of people killed in motorcycle accidents, and a scooter is a type of motorcycle. Their low speed makes them comparatively safe, but there is still some danger from other vehicles.
Motorcycle wear is meant to catch the eyes of drivers in split seconds to save the motorcyclists life. They are very LOUD colors. Not exactly discrete or fashionable unless you are a rap star. Replace the loud with something at least a bit fashionable in form and color. Personally I don't like black leather. I had a black leather jacket. It was glove leather and smelled like fish on a hot day, cod liver oil to be specific. I have no idea why. Lots of old motorcyclists wear black leather jackets because they are both traditional and functional, I just don't like them. Too many pirate cosplayers are wearing black leather with big bright steel zippers like the thug of a 1980's action movie, waiting around for Stallone to punch out their spine. These cosplayers typically end up drinking too much at biker bars, wrecking on a corner, and if they aren't killed, spend the rest of their lives operating an electric wheelchair with a drinking straw. I don't want that. Neither do you. But I do want some better looking scooter gear, in browns and tans and maybe some blue piping and some reflective strips. Something I wouldn't be ashamed to be seen wearing at a decent restaurant or the grocery store.
I saw several motorcycles out yesterday in the Winter sun. The weather that looks warm but the shadows have ice in them and the wind cuts through you. I also saw a scooterist, wearing a clear face helmet and sunglasses. He looked about 60, probably a retiree living in one of the local apartments or a house, motoring around with obvious grocery bags sticking out of the top of panniers behind him, including a loaf of french baguette. He was wearing non-armored street clothes, looked like a London Fog jacket from the 1980's. I used to have one of those.
While that's one approach to scootering, most scooterists recommend armor. I just wonder about armor that's still comfortable work wear. With linings and a cut that appears to be appropriate for the workplace and the riding season. Most motorcycle jackets are loud and flashy stripes which belong on a Power Ranger or black leather. I don't belong in either. I have more class than that. Unless I can find something right, I may end up working with my Mom to tailor something which actually fits me properly, or modify a jacket until it does. I'm sure that kevlar thread is expensive, as is the stronger reinforced fabrics, but expensive doesn't mean unaffordable. Particularly if it fits properly and is comfortable. Its only reasonable that someone else has already done this so I just need to search harder and I'll find gear that's sufficiently conservative in appearance and comfortable to wear. When I find it, I'll post here.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Portability
Cellphones are really useful. You can be most anywhere and stay in touch with friends or business. Most adults and teenagers have a cellphone because of this utility.
Laptops are useful. They let you do work wherever. Wireless connections let you access the internet using that laptop or cellphone wherever.
Thumb drives are really useful, particularly since they let you carry important documents, and modify them as needed, without using any power. No battery needed. It just sits there till you plug it into a USB drive on a computer. They're also cheap.
Digital cameras are really useful. You can take pictures, see if they're any good, store hundreds of them, make photo albums and upload their contents online to share. You can even use Optical Code Reader software to interpret photos with text on them into text documents, which is very popular with doctors and professionals of many kinds.
MP3 players are really useful. Good ones will hold days of music, maybe even your entire collection. You can swap files with them too. Or store movies. The better cellphones will act as music players and store data and transfer it wirelessly or a common Mini-USB cable everybody has.
Debit cards are really useful. Instead of carrying around wads of cash, you have a secure card that can't be used without an encrypted reader and your 4-5 digit PIN which only you know. Its convenient and can be used for many many things. Even buying a car.
Now that I know that stronger passenger cars and most pickup trucks are capable of pulling trailers you can live in, the size of a studio apartment, I know that you can take the above devices and turn your life portable, following the jobs. Fuel isn't free, but you don't have to use that passenger car or pickup truck for your daily commute, though you can certainly park that trailer close to your work to minimize fuel use. After all, its a trailer. Its on wheels. You can move it to wherever.
Many technical jobs today are portable and short term. They basically treat you as a contractor because you're competing with Call Centers in India using Remote Access computer systems and the internet to do the information processing and account setup and security remotely. All from a boiler room in Mumbai. The hardware installation is something you do in days or weeks, then tow your trailer to the next contract job. You'd think that IT temp agencies would be all over this, but from what I've seen they just headhunt and forget you after they get their commission. Finding your own jobs is cheaper for the company and more profitable for you. Temp Agencies are too greedy today.
You need the right contract and with carefully negotiated terms and staged payments, in thirds usually. First payment for showing up. Second for halfway point. Last for approval of completion and sign off. This approach is easy to replicate and portable, but you have to lay out the terms exactly so you're both satisfied.
Living in a trailer, most of which are built for the summer so have poor insulation, won't be very comfortable in places that are too cold or too hot. Buying a quality one is probably expensive. A used one is cheap, but often broken in many ways and will need carpentry and possibly welding work done, even electrical. If you do buy a fixer trailer and have the skillset to repair it, by all means add the crucial stuff like a Wireless 802.11n loop on the roof, with Ethernet jacks on the walls, and put in Solar co-generation panels for power and heat, and replace the batteries with new marine deep cycle batteries, and the refrigerator with a modern and more efficient one. Remember you'll be living there. And if you can replace the insulation DO SO! It will make you much more comfortable and save you money.
Most people just rent an apartment, but that's hard to do today if the contract is too short. Most places either want a 6-12 month lease signed, or direct you to an Extended Stay motel, which costs around the same as an apartment. Not all of those have kitchens, and some charge you extra for heat and internet. They are affordable, up to a point. However most trailer parks are just a few hundred a month for a space with hookups (power, water, sewer, cable TV, and sometimes internet). This is why I say you should look hard at your needs and see if they can be met with a trailer.
Everything in life is a tradeoff. We can't change that. We can only choose, or let others choose for us.
Laptops are useful. They let you do work wherever. Wireless connections let you access the internet using that laptop or cellphone wherever.
Thumb drives are really useful, particularly since they let you carry important documents, and modify them as needed, without using any power. No battery needed. It just sits there till you plug it into a USB drive on a computer. They're also cheap.
Digital cameras are really useful. You can take pictures, see if they're any good, store hundreds of them, make photo albums and upload their contents online to share. You can even use Optical Code Reader software to interpret photos with text on them into text documents, which is very popular with doctors and professionals of many kinds.
MP3 players are really useful. Good ones will hold days of music, maybe even your entire collection. You can swap files with them too. Or store movies. The better cellphones will act as music players and store data and transfer it wirelessly or a common Mini-USB cable everybody has.
Debit cards are really useful. Instead of carrying around wads of cash, you have a secure card that can't be used without an encrypted reader and your 4-5 digit PIN which only you know. Its convenient and can be used for many many things. Even buying a car.
 |
| Minimalism, on wheels. |
Now that I know that stronger passenger cars and most pickup trucks are capable of pulling trailers you can live in, the size of a studio apartment, I know that you can take the above devices and turn your life portable, following the jobs. Fuel isn't free, but you don't have to use that passenger car or pickup truck for your daily commute, though you can certainly park that trailer close to your work to minimize fuel use. After all, its a trailer. Its on wheels. You can move it to wherever.
Many technical jobs today are portable and short term. They basically treat you as a contractor because you're competing with Call Centers in India using Remote Access computer systems and the internet to do the information processing and account setup and security remotely. All from a boiler room in Mumbai. The hardware installation is something you do in days or weeks, then tow your trailer to the next contract job. You'd think that IT temp agencies would be all over this, but from what I've seen they just headhunt and forget you after they get their commission. Finding your own jobs is cheaper for the company and more profitable for you. Temp Agencies are too greedy today.
You need the right contract and with carefully negotiated terms and staged payments, in thirds usually. First payment for showing up. Second for halfway point. Last for approval of completion and sign off. This approach is easy to replicate and portable, but you have to lay out the terms exactly so you're both satisfied.
Living in a trailer, most of which are built for the summer so have poor insulation, won't be very comfortable in places that are too cold or too hot. Buying a quality one is probably expensive. A used one is cheap, but often broken in many ways and will need carpentry and possibly welding work done, even electrical. If you do buy a fixer trailer and have the skillset to repair it, by all means add the crucial stuff like a Wireless 802.11n loop on the roof, with Ethernet jacks on the walls, and put in Solar co-generation panels for power and heat, and replace the batteries with new marine deep cycle batteries, and the refrigerator with a modern and more efficient one. Remember you'll be living there. And if you can replace the insulation DO SO! It will make you much more comfortable and save you money.
Most people just rent an apartment, but that's hard to do today if the contract is too short. Most places either want a 6-12 month lease signed, or direct you to an Extended Stay motel, which costs around the same as an apartment. Not all of those have kitchens, and some charge you extra for heat and internet. They are affordable, up to a point. However most trailer parks are just a few hundred a month for a space with hookups (power, water, sewer, cable TV, and sometimes internet). This is why I say you should look hard at your needs and see if they can be met with a trailer.
Everything in life is a tradeoff. We can't change that. We can only choose, or let others choose for us.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Scooter vs Enduro Bike
Bicycles are cheapest post oil transportation, but hills make them impractical. For the real world, you need some amount of hill climbing power if you live in mountains or must cross them to reach work or school. This is a big part of which San Francisco is so popular for Vespa owners. A scooter moves you up the hill so you don't end up out of breath.
In the old days of 78 cent/gal gasoline, it was traditional to give a used older car to a teenager around the time they graduate high school. This was a sign they were acknowledged as having grown up a bit and earned the responsibility. The car was used to get to a job, go to college, dating, and would eventually lead to a better job, an apartment, and a marriage and family of their own. The car was the gateway to adulthood.
Now that oil is expensive and debt burden is huge, more and more young people are riding scooters and motorcycles to school and work because they are reasonably cheap to buy and very fuel efficient. Its not always comfortable, particularly when its rainy. But on the many dry days, of which there are around 300 a year in California, 83% of the time, they work just fine. Picking your machine is actually based on the distance of your commute, your required minimum speed, hills, road surface, and how that impacts your fuel economy. Realistically, you have to buy the right tool for the job.
I have ridden a Tomos Underbone scooter down in Newport Beach. It has an automatic transmission and spews great clouds of blue smoke. It goes up a hill about as fast as I do pedaling. But I don't have to pedal. The engine does the work for me. Nearly every other kind of scooter is better than that one, both in quality and capability. For Newport Beach it was great. Parking on Balboa Island, where I was staying, is minimal. Most people snag a space where they can find one, often blocks from their cottage, and bicycle or scooter across the bridge to the mainland for groceries. The cottages on Balboa Island are really close together, You can reach, almost, from one house to the next with outstretched arms. The weather in the summertime is fantastic, though. And with all the money there there's little crime so its very safe to let your kids play, to be neighbors with other rich kids. The future will probably have many examples of this sort of high density housing. I just hope that the cottages of the future are as varied and beautiful as the ones on Balboa Island. If they're all the same, the kids will grow up evil, like the ones in the Projects in Chicago. Mr JH Kuntsler is right about architectural variation being important to the human psyche. This is one of the reasons I find central valley towns, especially the ones north of Sacramento, to be so fascinating as they are highly varied, pre-car cottages for the most part, with an alley in the rear to the carriage house (garage) or park on the street. Most of these communities are flat with proper grids so you can actually use a 49cc scooter as intended. A Tomos or Vespa would work great there. So would a simple bicycle. I think those places are the next great Real Estate growth area. It depends a lot on jobs, though. Most are purely agricultural and repair, with minimal retail or other jobs available. They need to offer more crafts, more opportunities so people will stay instead of move into the Hellhole cities.
On the Pacific Coast Cities, hills are everywhere, potholes are common, and speeds are often high on the freeways, usually with poor or non-existent connections for frontage roads. This is a problem in my state. About the smallest safe, cheap vehicle on 2 wheels is the Ninja 250. Bought used they're around $2K, often with less than 12K miles. They are high revving engines, running to 14K RPMs but get around 70 mpg depending on how they're ridden. There are upgrades available for the brakes and suspension that makes them safer, and I suspect if I owned one I'd do that. Most people who have owned them liked them a lot, and said they brought a lot of joy back into riding a motorcycle. They're freeway capable but most fun on twisty canyon roads. Suzuki has a couple competitors like the GW250, a fuel injected twin. Honda has a fuel injected single, which has more torque, and a new 500cc sport bike which is more powerful and offers a good fuel economy balance for commuting. It could probably be ridden by a beginner safely and grow with them into a full commuter and sport bike. Kawasaki has upgraded the new Ninja to 300cc and Fuel Injection, which is a nice perk and might make it a more fun ride.
Road surface is important. Its what keeps the bike's wheel on the pavement. The combine contact patch of the front and rear wheel of most motorcycles is LESS than a single wheel on a Prius with its narrow tires and high pressure. You really have to be careful on those corners, on potholes or bits of slick manhole covers or strips of tar used to fix road cracks when money is short. They are called Tar Snakes by motorcyclist and they can kill you. Potholes in the PRK are often 2.5 inches deep, the typical thickness of a new layer of asphalt over the previous road surface. Motorcyclists dodge these because you will probably DIE if you hit one. You can limit the threat two ways: big wheels and long travel suspension. If you have small wheels and small suspension travel, like on a scooter, you are going down. As a scooter is slow, if there is a car behind you, you will probably be run over, very literally. Most people consider this a bad thing. The safest vehicle for really bad roads with potholes is a long travel suspension with four wheels. A subaru or truck or sedan, basically. They're popular for many reasons, but their safety in those conditions is unparalelled. No motorcycle is going to be as good. Its when the roads turn to mud bog and ruts that the motorcycle's value becomes obvious. The bike can go around, over or through more easily than a 4 wheel vehicle, and getting unstuck is a matter of lifting it out by brute force. You can't do that with an SUV. They weigh too much.
While the traditional wheel size of 10 inches is enough on good smooth pavement, its dangerous on rougher surfaces, which is mostly what we have here in the PRK. We have rough pavement and hills. Ergo, the 10 inch wheel on every 49cc Vespa is not a good idea here. That 10 inch wheel is what allows room for the flat floorboards on a scooter which make it so convenient. Put your package between your feet. You can shop with it. That's a really useful feature, like a pickup truck as many scooterists compare it. I really think the minimum wheel size on our roads should be 12 inches, and even that is taking a lot of risks with potholes. 14 inch wheels is loads safer than 10, as the physics keeps the bike moving forward out of a 3 inch deep pothole rather than stopping it dead and flipping over into traffic as a 10 inch wheel does. But big wheels removes those floorboards, and you lose some of that utility.
The safer the ride, the less useful the design for cargo (groceries). Most motorcyclists get around this with panniers, boxes or bags hanging on the tail of the bike to hold stuff, like groceries, your lunch, a computer, a shoulder bag. That kind of thing.
This is why Enduro bikes, which have the best suspension for rough roads on 2-wheels offer serious solutions. Supermoto setups on enduro bikes, such as the Suzuki DRZ0400SM are a good balance of power, fuel economy and a very good suspension. They can deal with rough roads, and pot holes you didn't see, without killing you because they have 11 inches of wheel travel and the suspension is usually set very supple, as you see with a Baja 1000 trophy racing truck, vehicles with 26 inches of suspension travel and famous for "bouncing" across the desert at full race speed.
Still, 4 wheels are safer. I encourage my readers to keep repairing their existing cars but ride a scooter or bike when the weather permits, for practice and to know what to expect should it become necessary as primary transportation. Wars can be sudden and the loss of access to fuel might happen very quickly, in a day or a week, thanks to troubles in the Middle East or Mexico or Nigeria. Things happen.
It IS legal to ride a ATV on the road, provided it has fenders and lights and turn signals and one rearview mirror. Make sure the turn signals work and the DMV will license it. You'll have to pay registration every year, but they assign you a license plate and a sticker and it's legal. ATVs are still out in the weather, but they have 4 wheels and still get decent mileage once you swap the tires and remember to lean hard on those corners. MPG isn't usually that great however, and a Geo Metro would offer more for the same price with better fuel economy too. Only do the ATV thing if that's all you've got and you get stuck otherwise.
Whatever you end up driving, you'll want to figure out a way to lock out its ignition so its harder to steal when you park it at work or the grocery store. You don't worry about that much with a car because its got a hard shell, but a bike or scooter can be lifted into a pickup truck by two strong men while you're buying milk and cookies inside. Happens. Accept that is a possibility every time you lock it and walk away.
Even if they don't steal it someone may still drill out your gas tank and steal your fuel. That's the big downside of a locking gas cap. Most people recommend no lock since replacing fuel is cheaper than replacing the tank spout or the tank itself. Or finding your vehicle on fire because the prick was smoking at the time. This has actually happened during the last gas price spike down in San Jose at an apartment complex, gasoline thieves, stealing fuel to buy methamphetamines, were smoking cigarettes as they drilled out the tank. They filled some containers, the lit the car on fire and ran away. The parking structure burned down and several other cars were destroyed. That will happen again. People tend to do the same sorts of stupid crap. I imagine the smell of gasoline will turn into a major Red Alert for the fire department and police in future 911 calls. Times are bad enough without burning down apartment buildings. It will probably encourage people to leave the ghettoes behind, though.
The following are my recommendations for commuter motorcycles/scooters based on terrain.
So ride cautiously and carefully. Read the manual for motorcycle safety. Take the class and get your license. It lowers your insurance rate. Excess speed and drunkenness are the real cause of most motorcycle accidents, which usually happen at corners. So don't drink when you ride and don't push it on corners and you're avoiding the major dangers. The other danger is car drivers not seeing you and pulling out. When you spot a car, be ready to brake and slow down enough you can stop if you must without hitting them. This is the other big danger. Those 3 issues are what will most likely threaten you as a motorcyclist. Defensive riding really is that simple.
As for crash safety and comfort, wear protective gear, at least some of it, usually a helmet, gloves and jacket are minimum. Wear appropriate for the weather conditions, and remember that wind chill can give you hypothermia in minutes on a bike so be warm enough.
For visibility to others, many riders prefer to keep their headlight on when in motion. Some like pulsing lights, which are distracting but do draw drivers attention. Most motorcyclists DO NOT RIDE AFTER DARK, for several reasons. The main one is that in corners you are blind. If you must work a night job or travel after dark, stick to using a car. Or move closer to your job so you can walk instead. Or get a job closer to where you live, same reason. Or get a job with human hours, during daylight.
Post oil, night jobs are going to be much less convenient and probably less safe in other ways too. Crime, remember? The closer you ride to dark, the better reason to wear protective gear with reflective stripes and good lights for the vehicle so it can be seen from all angles, easily. Bicyclists know this too. I have various lights for my bicycle from when I was commuting in traffic and after several weeks I gave it up as too dangerous despite it being a mere 2 miles. The gas I was burning was trivial compared to the daily dangers of distracted drivers with SUVs and Cellphones swerving into my bike lane and missing by inches.
This was part of why I started thinking hard about a scooter. When you are at the same speed as the traffic, they "see you" more easily. You stop being a pedestrian on wheels and start being part of the flow. I recommend any commuter remember they must keep up with traffic to be safe, but sometimes the right answer is frontage roads and stoplights rather than freeways. 2-land highway and roads seem to be safest for motorcyclists which is why you often see them there, motoring along.
While I love the look of the Vespa, it is overpriced, has tiny wheels, and a terrible suspension for California roads. It would only be suitable in flat places with very smooth pavement. Great for a college town, like Davis or Chico or Cal Poly or Stanford. Its popular in LA where there's sufficient money, and a few people up here have them. I don't see it as a good are sane choice, real world.
I turned my attention to Vintage bikes. The old Triumph, BSA, Honda, and Suzuki are nice looking, but you need serious expertise to maintain them and repair their electrical faults. Most of these are being bought up and lovingly restored by retiring baby boomers, most at significant financial loss. They are happy though.
The Ninja 250 is a good bike, but I dislike its looks. Nothing vintage about it but its ignition system, since its carbureted. The closest thing to a vintage these days are called Naked bikes, such as the Suzuki TU-250x, which has the advantage of fuel injection in a bike that looks like a BSA Lightning clone, complete with wire wheels and a rear drum brake.
I have not sat on one yet, however, so I don't know if its my size or small. If its too small for me I'll be looking at something else. I may even buy the GW250 or an Enduro to tidy up or possibly that new Honda CB500 due to that engine being pretty ideal for Sierra highway riding. Suzuki has a new 500cc as well. Its a good compromise for power and fuel economy and a serious contender for a daily rider.
Its listed as an adventure bike. I suppose with panniers for lunch and a camera it would be a nice way to reach Sardine Lakes for a picnic.
Then again, so would a Mazda Miata, and it has 4 wheels and you don't need all that riding gear. Just goggles and one of those english motoring caps. Whee! I realize that someday the fuel that allows us to move at all will be restricted, either by price or legal rationing, and we'll be daydreaming of the good old days when you slid a card, fueled up your vehicle, and drove as fast as you liked, same as any other fool. We had it good.
I like scooters because they are joyful on a warm sunny day. I like bicycles for the same reason. A motorcycle is probably the same. When its cold and wet, take a car. We'll need to find joy in our lives when the fuel is gone and we're stuck where we are. We can't dodge the future, nor can be pretend the basing our civilization on a fuel supply that runs out was a good idea. We have to live with it. But most of living with it is adapting our minds and how we think about things. If we can stop feeling entitled to cars and fast food and doing whatever we want just because we have money. Let all those old ideas go. Join the Present. For now, we still have gasoline. Next year? Who knows?
In the old days of 78 cent/gal gasoline, it was traditional to give a used older car to a teenager around the time they graduate high school. This was a sign they were acknowledged as having grown up a bit and earned the responsibility. The car was used to get to a job, go to college, dating, and would eventually lead to a better job, an apartment, and a marriage and family of their own. The car was the gateway to adulthood.
Now that oil is expensive and debt burden is huge, more and more young people are riding scooters and motorcycles to school and work because they are reasonably cheap to buy and very fuel efficient. Its not always comfortable, particularly when its rainy. But on the many dry days, of which there are around 300 a year in California, 83% of the time, they work just fine. Picking your machine is actually based on the distance of your commute, your required minimum speed, hills, road surface, and how that impacts your fuel economy. Realistically, you have to buy the right tool for the job.
I have ridden a Tomos Underbone scooter down in Newport Beach. It has an automatic transmission and spews great clouds of blue smoke. It goes up a hill about as fast as I do pedaling. But I don't have to pedal. The engine does the work for me. Nearly every other kind of scooter is better than that one, both in quality and capability. For Newport Beach it was great. Parking on Balboa Island, where I was staying, is minimal. Most people snag a space where they can find one, often blocks from their cottage, and bicycle or scooter across the bridge to the mainland for groceries. The cottages on Balboa Island are really close together, You can reach, almost, from one house to the next with outstretched arms. The weather in the summertime is fantastic, though. And with all the money there there's little crime so its very safe to let your kids play, to be neighbors with other rich kids. The future will probably have many examples of this sort of high density housing. I just hope that the cottages of the future are as varied and beautiful as the ones on Balboa Island. If they're all the same, the kids will grow up evil, like the ones in the Projects in Chicago. Mr JH Kuntsler is right about architectural variation being important to the human psyche. This is one of the reasons I find central valley towns, especially the ones north of Sacramento, to be so fascinating as they are highly varied, pre-car cottages for the most part, with an alley in the rear to the carriage house (garage) or park on the street. Most of these communities are flat with proper grids so you can actually use a 49cc scooter as intended. A Tomos or Vespa would work great there. So would a simple bicycle. I think those places are the next great Real Estate growth area. It depends a lot on jobs, though. Most are purely agricultural and repair, with minimal retail or other jobs available. They need to offer more crafts, more opportunities so people will stay instead of move into the Hellhole cities.
On the Pacific Coast Cities, hills are everywhere, potholes are common, and speeds are often high on the freeways, usually with poor or non-existent connections for frontage roads. This is a problem in my state. About the smallest safe, cheap vehicle on 2 wheels is the Ninja 250. Bought used they're around $2K, often with less than 12K miles. They are high revving engines, running to 14K RPMs but get around 70 mpg depending on how they're ridden. There are upgrades available for the brakes and suspension that makes them safer, and I suspect if I owned one I'd do that. Most people who have owned them liked them a lot, and said they brought a lot of joy back into riding a motorcycle. They're freeway capable but most fun on twisty canyon roads. Suzuki has a couple competitors like the GW250, a fuel injected twin. Honda has a fuel injected single, which has more torque, and a new 500cc sport bike which is more powerful and offers a good fuel economy balance for commuting. It could probably be ridden by a beginner safely and grow with them into a full commuter and sport bike. Kawasaki has upgraded the new Ninja to 300cc and Fuel Injection, which is a nice perk and might make it a more fun ride.
Road surface is important. Its what keeps the bike's wheel on the pavement. The combine contact patch of the front and rear wheel of most motorcycles is LESS than a single wheel on a Prius with its narrow tires and high pressure. You really have to be careful on those corners, on potholes or bits of slick manhole covers or strips of tar used to fix road cracks when money is short. They are called Tar Snakes by motorcyclist and they can kill you. Potholes in the PRK are often 2.5 inches deep, the typical thickness of a new layer of asphalt over the previous road surface. Motorcyclists dodge these because you will probably DIE if you hit one. You can limit the threat two ways: big wheels and long travel suspension. If you have small wheels and small suspension travel, like on a scooter, you are going down. As a scooter is slow, if there is a car behind you, you will probably be run over, very literally. Most people consider this a bad thing. The safest vehicle for really bad roads with potholes is a long travel suspension with four wheels. A subaru or truck or sedan, basically. They're popular for many reasons, but their safety in those conditions is unparalelled. No motorcycle is going to be as good. Its when the roads turn to mud bog and ruts that the motorcycle's value becomes obvious. The bike can go around, over or through more easily than a 4 wheel vehicle, and getting unstuck is a matter of lifting it out by brute force. You can't do that with an SUV. They weigh too much.
While the traditional wheel size of 10 inches is enough on good smooth pavement, its dangerous on rougher surfaces, which is mostly what we have here in the PRK. We have rough pavement and hills. Ergo, the 10 inch wheel on every 49cc Vespa is not a good idea here. That 10 inch wheel is what allows room for the flat floorboards on a scooter which make it so convenient. Put your package between your feet. You can shop with it. That's a really useful feature, like a pickup truck as many scooterists compare it. I really think the minimum wheel size on our roads should be 12 inches, and even that is taking a lot of risks with potholes. 14 inch wheels is loads safer than 10, as the physics keeps the bike moving forward out of a 3 inch deep pothole rather than stopping it dead and flipping over into traffic as a 10 inch wheel does. But big wheels removes those floorboards, and you lose some of that utility.
The safer the ride, the less useful the design for cargo (groceries). Most motorcyclists get around this with panniers, boxes or bags hanging on the tail of the bike to hold stuff, like groceries, your lunch, a computer, a shoulder bag. That kind of thing.
This is why Enduro bikes, which have the best suspension for rough roads on 2-wheels offer serious solutions. Supermoto setups on enduro bikes, such as the Suzuki DRZ0400SM are a good balance of power, fuel economy and a very good suspension. They can deal with rough roads, and pot holes you didn't see, without killing you because they have 11 inches of wheel travel and the suspension is usually set very supple, as you see with a Baja 1000 trophy racing truck, vehicles with 26 inches of suspension travel and famous for "bouncing" across the desert at full race speed.
Still, 4 wheels are safer. I encourage my readers to keep repairing their existing cars but ride a scooter or bike when the weather permits, for practice and to know what to expect should it become necessary as primary transportation. Wars can be sudden and the loss of access to fuel might happen very quickly, in a day or a week, thanks to troubles in the Middle East or Mexico or Nigeria. Things happen.
It IS legal to ride a ATV on the road, provided it has fenders and lights and turn signals and one rearview mirror. Make sure the turn signals work and the DMV will license it. You'll have to pay registration every year, but they assign you a license plate and a sticker and it's legal. ATVs are still out in the weather, but they have 4 wheels and still get decent mileage once you swap the tires and remember to lean hard on those corners. MPG isn't usually that great however, and a Geo Metro would offer more for the same price with better fuel economy too. Only do the ATV thing if that's all you've got and you get stuck otherwise.
Whatever you end up driving, you'll want to figure out a way to lock out its ignition so its harder to steal when you park it at work or the grocery store. You don't worry about that much with a car because its got a hard shell, but a bike or scooter can be lifted into a pickup truck by two strong men while you're buying milk and cookies inside. Happens. Accept that is a possibility every time you lock it and walk away.
Even if they don't steal it someone may still drill out your gas tank and steal your fuel. That's the big downside of a locking gas cap. Most people recommend no lock since replacing fuel is cheaper than replacing the tank spout or the tank itself. Or finding your vehicle on fire because the prick was smoking at the time. This has actually happened during the last gas price spike down in San Jose at an apartment complex, gasoline thieves, stealing fuel to buy methamphetamines, were smoking cigarettes as they drilled out the tank. They filled some containers, the lit the car on fire and ran away. The parking structure burned down and several other cars were destroyed. That will happen again. People tend to do the same sorts of stupid crap. I imagine the smell of gasoline will turn into a major Red Alert for the fire department and police in future 911 calls. Times are bad enough without burning down apartment buildings. It will probably encourage people to leave the ghettoes behind, though.
The following are my recommendations for commuter motorcycles/scooters based on terrain.
- Flat, slow street, short commutes under 12 miles: scooter, small motor 49cc, 120 mpg. Carb is fine and much cheaper. 2-stroke with monthly maintenance or 4 stroke and maintenance every 2000 miles.
- Hilly slow streets, reasonably smooth pavement: scooter, 125 cc 10-14" wheels. 4 stroke engine, 75 mpg.
- Flat rough streets: 125-250cc motorcycle, possibly used Enduro bike. 70 mpg, 4-stroke or 2 stroke. Appropriate suspension adjustments and tires for the surface, such as semi-knobby or slick depending on recommendations for experienced riders. A Ninja would work for this too.
- Hilly rough streets: 250cc Enduro bike, used, 4 stroke, good tires and suspension.
- Flat freeway: Ninja 250, used. 70 mpg, 100 mph top speed, decent brakes and acceptable suspension.
- Freeway with potholes and rough pavement: car. Don't risk this with a bike. Too many opportunities to die on this surface at freeway speed. People do, but they eventually wreck and die. Don't be one of them.
- Country road, flat: any cruiser or standard or supermoto bike is fine. Mind your speed into corners, and beware of loose pea gravel on driveway exits. Common as hell in the countryside. On a corner that will end you.
So ride cautiously and carefully. Read the manual for motorcycle safety. Take the class and get your license. It lowers your insurance rate. Excess speed and drunkenness are the real cause of most motorcycle accidents, which usually happen at corners. So don't drink when you ride and don't push it on corners and you're avoiding the major dangers. The other danger is car drivers not seeing you and pulling out. When you spot a car, be ready to brake and slow down enough you can stop if you must without hitting them. This is the other big danger. Those 3 issues are what will most likely threaten you as a motorcyclist. Defensive riding really is that simple.
As for crash safety and comfort, wear protective gear, at least some of it, usually a helmet, gloves and jacket are minimum. Wear appropriate for the weather conditions, and remember that wind chill can give you hypothermia in minutes on a bike so be warm enough.
For visibility to others, many riders prefer to keep their headlight on when in motion. Some like pulsing lights, which are distracting but do draw drivers attention. Most motorcyclists DO NOT RIDE AFTER DARK, for several reasons. The main one is that in corners you are blind. If you must work a night job or travel after dark, stick to using a car. Or move closer to your job so you can walk instead. Or get a job closer to where you live, same reason. Or get a job with human hours, during daylight.
Post oil, night jobs are going to be much less convenient and probably less safe in other ways too. Crime, remember? The closer you ride to dark, the better reason to wear protective gear with reflective stripes and good lights for the vehicle so it can be seen from all angles, easily. Bicyclists know this too. I have various lights for my bicycle from when I was commuting in traffic and after several weeks I gave it up as too dangerous despite it being a mere 2 miles. The gas I was burning was trivial compared to the daily dangers of distracted drivers with SUVs and Cellphones swerving into my bike lane and missing by inches.
This was part of why I started thinking hard about a scooter. When you are at the same speed as the traffic, they "see you" more easily. You stop being a pedestrian on wheels and start being part of the flow. I recommend any commuter remember they must keep up with traffic to be safe, but sometimes the right answer is frontage roads and stoplights rather than freeways. 2-land highway and roads seem to be safest for motorcyclists which is why you often see them there, motoring along.
While I love the look of the Vespa, it is overpriced, has tiny wheels, and a terrible suspension for California roads. It would only be suitable in flat places with very smooth pavement. Great for a college town, like Davis or Chico or Cal Poly or Stanford. Its popular in LA where there's sufficient money, and a few people up here have them. I don't see it as a good are sane choice, real world.
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| Deus is really good at building elegant bikes from junkers. |
I turned my attention to Vintage bikes. The old Triumph, BSA, Honda, and Suzuki are nice looking, but you need serious expertise to maintain them and repair their electrical faults. Most of these are being bought up and lovingly restored by retiring baby boomers, most at significant financial loss. They are happy though.
The Ninja 250 is a good bike, but I dislike its looks. Nothing vintage about it but its ignition system, since its carbureted. The closest thing to a vintage these days are called Naked bikes, such as the Suzuki TU-250x, which has the advantage of fuel injection in a bike that looks like a BSA Lightning clone, complete with wire wheels and a rear drum brake.
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| All this and 75 mpg. |
I have not sat on one yet, however, so I don't know if its my size or small. If its too small for me I'll be looking at something else. I may even buy the GW250 or an Enduro to tidy up or possibly that new Honda CB500 due to that engine being pretty ideal for Sierra highway riding. Suzuki has a new 500cc as well. Its a good compromise for power and fuel economy and a serious contender for a daily rider.
Its listed as an adventure bike. I suppose with panniers for lunch and a camera it would be a nice way to reach Sardine Lakes for a picnic.
I like scooters because they are joyful on a warm sunny day. I like bicycles for the same reason. A motorcycle is probably the same. When its cold and wet, take a car. We'll need to find joy in our lives when the fuel is gone and we're stuck where we are. We can't dodge the future, nor can be pretend the basing our civilization on a fuel supply that runs out was a good idea. We have to live with it. But most of living with it is adapting our minds and how we think about things. If we can stop feeling entitled to cars and fast food and doing whatever we want just because we have money. Let all those old ideas go. Join the Present. For now, we still have gasoline. Next year? Who knows?
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Post Oil Survival Skills
As the oil age winds down, we're left with freeways but no fuel to drive on them. Largely separated markets with no warehouse because they're based on Just In Time deliveries, and soon empty parking lots. Some of these have already gone bankrupt and empty.
We have suburban neighborhoods 45-60 miles from the cities they're meant to be in, and that same distance from the jobs to pay those mortgages. As Mr. JH Kuntsler points out, this was a huge misallocation of resources. However, the Europeans he loves so well have been correcting these sorts of errors for centuries by retasking real estate and buildings from their obsolete designs into something useful today. They're often awkward and imperfect, but they're still useful. This is the answer to correcting the real estate problems.
The exurbs are often surrounded by fallow (unused) farmland. Kinda like villages. What if those big houses got locked bedroom doors, a kitchen manned by a cook, and offered affordable rates for rent? During the Great Depression, big houses were turned into small apartments called Boarding Houses. They'd rent by the month and food was either included or the kitchen was treated like a small lunchroom with cheap prices, on call. Since we're back in Great Depression economics again (since the current president took office), it would make sense to offer Boarding Houses. With all those unemployed or underemployed adults floating around, a Boarding House would be a good compromise. If the surrounding fields were turned into Market Gardens (vegetable gardens for sale in markets) that provides local employment for the boarders as well as food for the dining room. The more carefully the local soil is developed, the better food it can grow and the more nutritious that food becomes. Exurban neighborhoods and housing developments could become villages with specialized production, including turning the front room into a store, or the garage. Since we soon won't have cars, the garage becoming a shop actually makes sense. Eventually, such places could become actual towns rather than a place to keep your stuff while you sleep, commuting 100 miles or more per day for a job.
A similar approach can be made with Suburbs. Note that Urbus is from Sumerian, the first civilization. It means town or city. Sub-Urbus means village dependent on town, thus the Sub usage. I learned that in my Archaeology class in college, from a Dr. Poe, the man who found Petra. I know it looks like a movie set, but its real and really exists. Great teacher, btw.
Petra was the local equivalent of a truck stop. Like Reno. It had water via some clever irrigation canals carved into the rock on either side of the steep canyon that led their way into the town, which is carved into the rock like this. Since everybody was doing silk-road kinds of pack horses and camels, it made sense. This was adapting resources to appropriate use.
The Suburbs are those areas outside the city itself where housing is cheaper and Cheap Oil made relatively easy to get back and forth to work. It was a compromise, giving up time commuting to and from the city in exchange for a larger house with more privacy. Post oil, with no fuel available for commuting to work, or costing a significant portion of that income to make the commute (which is already happening), families with commuting workers find themselves giving up more and more luxuries until the stress can break them. Thus the high divorce rate. Love is easy when there's money. Not so much when you're both broke. When the pack mules stopped coming to Petra to trade and water their animals, Petra died. When the commuters can't afford to commute, the suburbs will die. Unless something is done.
The way forward for the suburbs is similar to that of the Exurbs. Market gardens, garage businesses, and bulldozing empty homes to make space for the gardens. They're already doing this in Cleveland, btw. They think this will save the value of the remaining homes, and they're selling the empty plots to the adjoining neighbor for $1, with the understanding they will fence the property and use it, not leave it as a vacant lot. This is important. Ownership defines value. Cleveland knows that the Tragedy of the Commons is a major flaw in Socialism, and a big part of why Communism fails, consistently. There has to be profit motive and ownership. Boarding Houses make sense in the suburbs too, and the garage businesses can be more specialized. I think we should expect more manufacturing to turn up in suburbs simply because there's a more educated population base which can provide workers. This is largely true in the industrial districts, which are often unsafe and have poor mass transit options, dumping riders into stations where getting stabbed or raped is the least of your worries. That either gets changed or those businesses will lose all their workers when the cars go away.
Shifting manufacturing out of dangerous areas and back to where people actually live does require some infrastructure, but reliable power and a clean well lighted building space isn't hard to come by. Cheap Solar for the power, former shopping areas for the building space, and hybrid trucks can borrow power from the grid, then use biodiesel or battery charge to make deliveries and pickups. Not perfect, but sustainable. This opens up those abandoned Plazas with their huge parking lots to economic activity again. Imagine former Wallmart stores turned into factory shop space building something useful instead of sitting empty. Those spaces could otherwise be turned into flea-market stalls or local department stores/shops.
I'll also point out that industrial design architects could take your basic car oriented shopping center and convert most of the parking lot into additional shops, a guard shack, and bike racks, with solar panels on every roof, lots of good lighting, and industrial battery to use that power after dark. You'd need a nearby tram stop for all the potential customers. If you have multistory buildings near public transit, turn the bottom floors to shops and the upper floors to apartments with controlled entrance to the elevators keeping out muggers and such. Stopping crime is big business.
And there's quite a few careers that need to happen post oil that have faded into obscurity thanks to Globalism.
The other way forward for suburbs is electrified rail, to keep commuters able to reach those city jobs so they can keep paying mortgages and thus property taxes and support businesses. With cheap enough transit running frequently enough, using solar power and batteries to provide the power for the transport, you can retain the transportation economy sustainably. It won't be easy. And for it to be used, it must be convenient. The less convenient, the more stress on families and the more likely the whole thing fails. Its also expensive. Even with cheap solar, you still need high temperature sodium batteries, which means you need a stationary engineer to monitor them 24/7 which means 3 or 4 of them, and you need tram drivers and train drivers to run all those mass transit vehicles, with a good enough wage they won't go on strike and quality people do the job so won't run over children in the cross walks because Muni Drivers DO in SF. Its LEGAL, and they are protected from prosecution because they're saving the lives of their passengers in exchange for running down the idiot who steps off without looking. Used to be a daily thing back in the 1970s and 80s evening news. We were tougher back then. Electrified grid tied buses and trams are the sustainable way forward because they don't rely on batteries, they're a mature technology that's well understood, and they exist in many cities already. The overhead wires are ugly, but you gotta make do.
The alternative to that is biodiesel scooters and motorcycles. The OPOC engine claims it can take advantage of this, but I've never seen a real one or read a single unbiased review. The company making them is taking their sweet time, time we just don't have. I refused to invest in a technology that's not durable and easy to fix or replace and that can only be proven by real world reviews. Common Rail Injection Diesel motors, using old diesel technology like the Hayes mounted in a KLR frame would be fine, but the Hayes is ridiculously overpriced ($19K!) and its not even proprietary technology. So why aren't any auto engineers competing with Hayes? A tiny diesel mounted in an Enduro bike frame? Pure win. The cheaper the final product cost, the better. This has to change. While I applaud Ford for finally bringing their 3-cylinder 1.0 L aluminum block diesel to America after years in Europe, they're also taking their sweet time with it. That would be an ideal engine for a micro-truck, like the kind for deliveries and farm use in Japan, and would offer a lot of domestic options here for towns still converting to overhead electric grid transport. The economy has to survive the transition, even if that economy is itself converting to Post-Oil occupations. We need shoe makers more than we need mortgage or insurance brokers. And telesales? No thank. Bye! We need hands on jobs for our populations, as many as we can get, because Idle Hands do the Devil's Work. And that kind of thing leads to stealing or murder. And that's just a waste of everything.
Finally, the urban areas must fully adapt to non-car transportation. This should be easy, since most people in the inner city are carless anyway. It should be pretty easy for them. The hard part will be the rich moving into the city, and kicking out the poor, then insisting on proper police protection, health and cleanliness standards, maintenance, all of which will come from their taxes. The more rich people, the better the neighborhoods become, which improves police salaries, giving them reason to enforce standards. Thus ends the poverty in the urban core. It takes the end of Cheap Oil to do this, and leaves the wealthy with More Time, since they're not commuting from Suburban Mansions, instead having urban ones. The ruins of flooded ghettoes in New Jersey won't be ghettoes anymore. They're being bulldozed and sold to developers building million dollar mansions to the rich. Better tax base than slums, the poor and their crime get booted out, and everybody who matters is happy. Same thing is happening in SF city. Wealth Concentrates. It sustains itself. It protects itself. It celebrates itself through celebrity and ego stroking. And the poor love watching movies about rich beautiful people. So being rich is clearly Might Makes Right. Isn't that awesome? The rich think so. And the Govt makes sure they're happy. So the poor in the inner city? Your time is over. Move out or suffer the consequences.
Between streetcars, overhead electric buses, bicycles and scooters, and small delivery trucks have pretty well adapted a city like SF to the future. Its really a matter of water supply and potential earthquake damage that limits them. They can get daily farm shipments through the docks, including meat and fresh veggies. This lets them focus on specialized activities, the cream of our sciences and entertainments. While LA is a hodgepodge of neighborhoods and housing developments, The City has always referred to San Francisco. I know this because my Dad is from LA. He moved up to The City, where culture actually happens, in the 1960's and met my mom. LA plays at culture and fails. They just don't have people concentrated enough to reach that critical mass of wealth and creativity like SF or New York do. SF is physically constrained so it concentrates properly. Someday it will be even more wealthy and even more interesting.
As a person, you get to choose where you live by what you want to do. You can farm in the Exurbs, Craft in the Suburbs, or you can Commute into the city as a specialist or servant to the Rich. All of these options have upsides and downsides. Nothing is perfect.
You may even opt to stay mobile and live in a trailer park as needed. I'm learning from a friend that IT jobs are now all "Contract-Temp" because there's no motivation (thanks to low quality) to keep IT workers around. Things are too unstable, and software patches eventually remove the requirements. Businesses change direction with the economy too. I gave up on IT as a career in 2004, having seen the writing on the wall ("certificate" scams, low quality patches, product support, cheapskate ignorant customers, unreasonable expectations, low return on investment, hardware depreciation, cludged systems, non-competitive contracting, OS scams, trojans, declining pay). I focused on direct support, desktop and training. It saved my bacon and having interpersonal skills is a non-exportable job security. No boiler room telesales can replace me. But I only do IT in a very limited sense. I'm too far out of the game. I get more pay as a handyman operating a drill or shovel than I did as a Tech guy.
If you choose to be in IT, it is in your best interest to live in a trailer and move from job to job. Wire the trailer for IT purposes and self sufficiency. Contract it so you can park the thing in the client's lot so you can avoid paying rent. When the job is getting finished, find the next spot, fuel the tow vehicle and go as soon as you're done and the client has accepted the work and their payment clears the bank. Boom! A suspect many craft jobs can be done like this. Heartland makes trailers that include garage space with a shop, living space in front. They call them Toy Haulers. You need a purpose built truck to pull them, setup for 5th Wheel hitch, but that would pay for itself in time.
Imagine that garage space is used for any sort of machining, locksmith, electronics repair, whatever. There's maintenance jobs that could be run in there too. Or a trailer devoted to that towed by an RV to live in. Adapting your lifestyle to your profession is necessary today. Having space to haul your scooter or golf cart in, and solar panels on the roof? It could work. It seems like such a change from apartments or big houses and fast fancy cars, but that was a delusion of the Cheap Oil world. That's over.
Ultimately, our society and economy must adapt to the Post Oil reality. We're all going to be installing a lot of Solar panels, and shifting from the fun and convenient forms of transportation to the ones that make you stand in the rain and smell other peoples BO, and get your pocket picked or your crotch groped. It won't be fun. We're all going to walk more, and eat less meat, and learn to appreciate quality in a way we never did before, and its going to cost us more of our pay so we'll either learn to ration our money or die of stupidity.
Using fewer non-renewable resources will make us a stronger nation and correct our trade deficit. As our Elders FAILED to do this when times we good, it falls on us to save our grandchildren from either wage slavery or revolution, neither one of which will do us any good. WE have to make the sacrifices because our parents certainly didn't. Cowards. Its up to us to fix this mess, to stand up and be the Adults in a way they never did. It is a daunting task, but who else can do it? At least we were raised to be flexible, thanks to all the changes we've lived through.
I still remember Muscle Cars when that's all there was to drive, and Libraries you had to visit and use a paper card catalog to find a book made out of paper. And it might not even BE there. That was our information storage. And mail that took days to deliver instead of seconds. And phone booths. And Newspapers. Transistor Radios as a selling point. And vacuum tube testers at the local pharmacy. And all sorts of things which have since vanished as technology has changed how we live. Its been a hell of a ride.
The changes we'll go through as oil goes away will be even bigger, but we really don't have a choice. Refusing reality is just choosing to die, and few people actually do that. They sigh, they have a temper tantrum, they get over it, then adapt. You will too.
We have suburban neighborhoods 45-60 miles from the cities they're meant to be in, and that same distance from the jobs to pay those mortgages. As Mr. JH Kuntsler points out, this was a huge misallocation of resources. However, the Europeans he loves so well have been correcting these sorts of errors for centuries by retasking real estate and buildings from their obsolete designs into something useful today. They're often awkward and imperfect, but they're still useful. This is the answer to correcting the real estate problems.
The exurbs are often surrounded by fallow (unused) farmland. Kinda like villages. What if those big houses got locked bedroom doors, a kitchen manned by a cook, and offered affordable rates for rent? During the Great Depression, big houses were turned into small apartments called Boarding Houses. They'd rent by the month and food was either included or the kitchen was treated like a small lunchroom with cheap prices, on call. Since we're back in Great Depression economics again (since the current president took office), it would make sense to offer Boarding Houses. With all those unemployed or underemployed adults floating around, a Boarding House would be a good compromise. If the surrounding fields were turned into Market Gardens (vegetable gardens for sale in markets) that provides local employment for the boarders as well as food for the dining room. The more carefully the local soil is developed, the better food it can grow and the more nutritious that food becomes. Exurban neighborhoods and housing developments could become villages with specialized production, including turning the front room into a store, or the garage. Since we soon won't have cars, the garage becoming a shop actually makes sense. Eventually, such places could become actual towns rather than a place to keep your stuff while you sleep, commuting 100 miles or more per day for a job.
A similar approach can be made with Suburbs. Note that Urbus is from Sumerian, the first civilization. It means town or city. Sub-Urbus means village dependent on town, thus the Sub usage. I learned that in my Archaeology class in college, from a Dr. Poe, the man who found Petra. I know it looks like a movie set, but its real and really exists. Great teacher, btw.
The Suburbs are those areas outside the city itself where housing is cheaper and Cheap Oil made relatively easy to get back and forth to work. It was a compromise, giving up time commuting to and from the city in exchange for a larger house with more privacy. Post oil, with no fuel available for commuting to work, or costing a significant portion of that income to make the commute (which is already happening), families with commuting workers find themselves giving up more and more luxuries until the stress can break them. Thus the high divorce rate. Love is easy when there's money. Not so much when you're both broke. When the pack mules stopped coming to Petra to trade and water their animals, Petra died. When the commuters can't afford to commute, the suburbs will die. Unless something is done.
The way forward for the suburbs is similar to that of the Exurbs. Market gardens, garage businesses, and bulldozing empty homes to make space for the gardens. They're already doing this in Cleveland, btw. They think this will save the value of the remaining homes, and they're selling the empty plots to the adjoining neighbor for $1, with the understanding they will fence the property and use it, not leave it as a vacant lot. This is important. Ownership defines value. Cleveland knows that the Tragedy of the Commons is a major flaw in Socialism, and a big part of why Communism fails, consistently. There has to be profit motive and ownership. Boarding Houses make sense in the suburbs too, and the garage businesses can be more specialized. I think we should expect more manufacturing to turn up in suburbs simply because there's a more educated population base which can provide workers. This is largely true in the industrial districts, which are often unsafe and have poor mass transit options, dumping riders into stations where getting stabbed or raped is the least of your worries. That either gets changed or those businesses will lose all their workers when the cars go away.
Shifting manufacturing out of dangerous areas and back to where people actually live does require some infrastructure, but reliable power and a clean well lighted building space isn't hard to come by. Cheap Solar for the power, former shopping areas for the building space, and hybrid trucks can borrow power from the grid, then use biodiesel or battery charge to make deliveries and pickups. Not perfect, but sustainable. This opens up those abandoned Plazas with their huge parking lots to economic activity again. Imagine former Wallmart stores turned into factory shop space building something useful instead of sitting empty. Those spaces could otherwise be turned into flea-market stalls or local department stores/shops.
I'll also point out that industrial design architects could take your basic car oriented shopping center and convert most of the parking lot into additional shops, a guard shack, and bike racks, with solar panels on every roof, lots of good lighting, and industrial battery to use that power after dark. You'd need a nearby tram stop for all the potential customers. If you have multistory buildings near public transit, turn the bottom floors to shops and the upper floors to apartments with controlled entrance to the elevators keeping out muggers and such. Stopping crime is big business.
And there's quite a few careers that need to happen post oil that have faded into obscurity thanks to Globalism.
- Shoemaker (cobbler). Use modern methods and materials, but make them locally. They can be repaired, too.
- Tailor. Teeshirts from Dominican Republic or Vietnam? Not much longer. If its going to cost anyway, and you want better treatment, pay for the real thing. It will be more comfortable and you'll get better treatment by showing some class.
- Bicycle and scooter sales and mechanic. Lots of people are inexpert at this, and while they'll eventually develop the skills, paying someone to do it will be an obvious niche. The rates need to be lower.
- Bicycle Stylist might become a real career too, a sort of mechanic who can turn a beater that gets you stopped by the police into something elegant that lets you ride on by, using paint, better accessories, and the right colors. See CycleExif for examples of elegant bicycles.
- Biodiesel and ethanol fuel seller. Imagine your fuel dealer came to your house, like the milkman, and dropped off fuel and picked up the empty jerry cans or 2L bottles from a lock box by your garage. Since the gas stations are going to go under without cheap gas to sell, and won't touch biodiesel due to its variable quality, nor ethanol from sugar cane or sugar beets because its competition, this is going to be a niche. I could easily see a neighbor becoming expert on this and doing the rounds a couple days a week with a cart or fuel truck. I suspect the fire department and police would want to sign off on it, but it will still happen. Needs must!
- Neighborhood brewer, making craft beer. In hard times you need booze to relax. I grew up with those, and there was a veritable trade in beers, wines, jams, cheese, wool, yarn, firewood, all quietly bartered back and forth without the IRS knowing. Until 2000, it was still legal to make distilled booze under 5.0 Gal. stock on hand, and unlimited quantities of denatured for personal use as fuel. All without a tax stamp or ATF involvement. This could sell to the local fuel guy, as you need Methanol to make biodiesel since it converts the used cooking oil into triglycerides, part of the chemistry. The local brewer should have his license once he starts trading with more than a couple houses in barter else some goons will break down his doors like during Prohibition.
- Tire maker. Turns out you can do this in a small shop with an electric heated vat of used rubber and the underlaying tire. Dirty Jobs did a special on a retreads shop in LA and I was kinda impressed how simple and quick it is. We'll need that for motorcycle and scooter tires, and bike tires too. Changing the tread pattern is easy this way.
- Welder. A welder is important because small industrial ideas can be created in durable metal provided you've got the metal and a TIG welder with power supply, and Argon Gas, which is still pretty cheap. And that can be run on a generator or solar-battery combo. I know how to do this. Its not easy, but it can be done. A welder can build carts. He can build trailers to tow behind your bicycle or motorcycle. He can build a Jeepney around a small engine like they have in Manilla. Its basic transportation, neither fast nor very safe, but its something. The Auto Industry has failed. Its time for home craftsmen to step up with solutions.
- Short Order cook, for boarding houses. Making food for a boarding house from available food stuffs will get more challenging. I think most dishes will have egg in them, and making eggs taste good will be a daily challenge. Rice as the carbs, veggies for the vitamins, season to cover the blandness. Miso for more protein from soybeans, grown to add nitrogen to the soil. Miso is safe from endrocrine disrupters in raw/cooked soy products like Tofu and TVP. This will be a demanding and probably thankless job.
- Health Inspector. All these little businesses can impact health and safety, some of which might kill their customers due to inexperience or contamination. While its unlikely they'll be cheating on purpose, mistakes happen. A health inspector should be more of a teacher than cop. Salmonella outbreaks will be a big problem with all the chickens and eggs around. So will cholera and other food poisoning. Some people will be tempted to use untreated human waste to increase vegetable yields, called Night Soil, since its common in Europe and central america. This is why travellers are urged to only eat COOKED veggies, not salads or raw. The cholera goes right to the plant flesh, to the fruit you're eating.
- Security guard. This is a growth industry. All those shops and no fast way for a cop to get there without oil to power a wasteful cruiser engine. Best be able to run fast and tackle a purse snatcher or shoot an extortionist or home invader. It will be dangerous and much harder than its been in a century. Expect to ride a bicycle and wear a bulletproof vest. You don't need oil to have guns or knives, and desperate people do desperate things.
- Architect. Redesigns can be smart and tasteful. People with a little money will be willling to have something that works, or a business needing a shop that attracts customers from the outside. An architect will be busy in the next few decades doing these conversions.
- Construction material recovery and resales. Abandoned buildings can sometimes be stripped, legally or not. Will you care about owners rights if the company that bought the building is Chinese? No. Strip it out, every wire and light fixture. Resell them locally. There's no issues with the police because they aren't Chinese either and we've all got a grudge against them for ruining our economy. The long term consequence of Dumping goods into a market to bankrupt the local production is a disdain for that nation. Since the Chinese are also buying out banks that own the underwater mortgages and seizing properties, stripping houses of construction materials for repurposing makes sense at every level. Better than them getting bulldozed. At least the materials will find a home.
The other way forward for suburbs is electrified rail, to keep commuters able to reach those city jobs so they can keep paying mortgages and thus property taxes and support businesses. With cheap enough transit running frequently enough, using solar power and batteries to provide the power for the transport, you can retain the transportation economy sustainably. It won't be easy. And for it to be used, it must be convenient. The less convenient, the more stress on families and the more likely the whole thing fails. Its also expensive. Even with cheap solar, you still need high temperature sodium batteries, which means you need a stationary engineer to monitor them 24/7 which means 3 or 4 of them, and you need tram drivers and train drivers to run all those mass transit vehicles, with a good enough wage they won't go on strike and quality people do the job so won't run over children in the cross walks because Muni Drivers DO in SF. Its LEGAL, and they are protected from prosecution because they're saving the lives of their passengers in exchange for running down the idiot who steps off without looking. Used to be a daily thing back in the 1970s and 80s evening news. We were tougher back then. Electrified grid tied buses and trams are the sustainable way forward because they don't rely on batteries, they're a mature technology that's well understood, and they exist in many cities already. The overhead wires are ugly, but you gotta make do.
The alternative to that is biodiesel scooters and motorcycles. The OPOC engine claims it can take advantage of this, but I've never seen a real one or read a single unbiased review. The company making them is taking their sweet time, time we just don't have. I refused to invest in a technology that's not durable and easy to fix or replace and that can only be proven by real world reviews. Common Rail Injection Diesel motors, using old diesel technology like the Hayes mounted in a KLR frame would be fine, but the Hayes is ridiculously overpriced ($19K!) and its not even proprietary technology. So why aren't any auto engineers competing with Hayes? A tiny diesel mounted in an Enduro bike frame? Pure win. The cheaper the final product cost, the better. This has to change. While I applaud Ford for finally bringing their 3-cylinder 1.0 L aluminum block diesel to America after years in Europe, they're also taking their sweet time with it. That would be an ideal engine for a micro-truck, like the kind for deliveries and farm use in Japan, and would offer a lot of domestic options here for towns still converting to overhead electric grid transport. The economy has to survive the transition, even if that economy is itself converting to Post-Oil occupations. We need shoe makers more than we need mortgage or insurance brokers. And telesales? No thank. Bye! We need hands on jobs for our populations, as many as we can get, because Idle Hands do the Devil's Work. And that kind of thing leads to stealing or murder. And that's just a waste of everything.
Finally, the urban areas must fully adapt to non-car transportation. This should be easy, since most people in the inner city are carless anyway. It should be pretty easy for them. The hard part will be the rich moving into the city, and kicking out the poor, then insisting on proper police protection, health and cleanliness standards, maintenance, all of which will come from their taxes. The more rich people, the better the neighborhoods become, which improves police salaries, giving them reason to enforce standards. Thus ends the poverty in the urban core. It takes the end of Cheap Oil to do this, and leaves the wealthy with More Time, since they're not commuting from Suburban Mansions, instead having urban ones. The ruins of flooded ghettoes in New Jersey won't be ghettoes anymore. They're being bulldozed and sold to developers building million dollar mansions to the rich. Better tax base than slums, the poor and their crime get booted out, and everybody who matters is happy. Same thing is happening in SF city. Wealth Concentrates. It sustains itself. It protects itself. It celebrates itself through celebrity and ego stroking. And the poor love watching movies about rich beautiful people. So being rich is clearly Might Makes Right. Isn't that awesome? The rich think so. And the Govt makes sure they're happy. So the poor in the inner city? Your time is over. Move out or suffer the consequences.
Between streetcars, overhead electric buses, bicycles and scooters, and small delivery trucks have pretty well adapted a city like SF to the future. Its really a matter of water supply and potential earthquake damage that limits them. They can get daily farm shipments through the docks, including meat and fresh veggies. This lets them focus on specialized activities, the cream of our sciences and entertainments. While LA is a hodgepodge of neighborhoods and housing developments, The City has always referred to San Francisco. I know this because my Dad is from LA. He moved up to The City, where culture actually happens, in the 1960's and met my mom. LA plays at culture and fails. They just don't have people concentrated enough to reach that critical mass of wealth and creativity like SF or New York do. SF is physically constrained so it concentrates properly. Someday it will be even more wealthy and even more interesting.
As a person, you get to choose where you live by what you want to do. You can farm in the Exurbs, Craft in the Suburbs, or you can Commute into the city as a specialist or servant to the Rich. All of these options have upsides and downsides. Nothing is perfect.
You may even opt to stay mobile and live in a trailer park as needed. I'm learning from a friend that IT jobs are now all "Contract-Temp" because there's no motivation (thanks to low quality) to keep IT workers around. Things are too unstable, and software patches eventually remove the requirements. Businesses change direction with the economy too. I gave up on IT as a career in 2004, having seen the writing on the wall ("certificate" scams, low quality patches, product support, cheapskate ignorant customers, unreasonable expectations, low return on investment, hardware depreciation, cludged systems, non-competitive contracting, OS scams, trojans, declining pay). I focused on direct support, desktop and training. It saved my bacon and having interpersonal skills is a non-exportable job security. No boiler room telesales can replace me. But I only do IT in a very limited sense. I'm too far out of the game. I get more pay as a handyman operating a drill or shovel than I did as a Tech guy.
If you choose to be in IT, it is in your best interest to live in a trailer and move from job to job. Wire the trailer for IT purposes and self sufficiency. Contract it so you can park the thing in the client's lot so you can avoid paying rent. When the job is getting finished, find the next spot, fuel the tow vehicle and go as soon as you're done and the client has accepted the work and their payment clears the bank. Boom! A suspect many craft jobs can be done like this. Heartland makes trailers that include garage space with a shop, living space in front. They call them Toy Haulers. You need a purpose built truck to pull them, setup for 5th Wheel hitch, but that would pay for itself in time.
Imagine that garage space is used for any sort of machining, locksmith, electronics repair, whatever. There's maintenance jobs that could be run in there too. Or a trailer devoted to that towed by an RV to live in. Adapting your lifestyle to your profession is necessary today. Having space to haul your scooter or golf cart in, and solar panels on the roof? It could work. It seems like such a change from apartments or big houses and fast fancy cars, but that was a delusion of the Cheap Oil world. That's over.
Ultimately, our society and economy must adapt to the Post Oil reality. We're all going to be installing a lot of Solar panels, and shifting from the fun and convenient forms of transportation to the ones that make you stand in the rain and smell other peoples BO, and get your pocket picked or your crotch groped. It won't be fun. We're all going to walk more, and eat less meat, and learn to appreciate quality in a way we never did before, and its going to cost us more of our pay so we'll either learn to ration our money or die of stupidity.
Using fewer non-renewable resources will make us a stronger nation and correct our trade deficit. As our Elders FAILED to do this when times we good, it falls on us to save our grandchildren from either wage slavery or revolution, neither one of which will do us any good. WE have to make the sacrifices because our parents certainly didn't. Cowards. Its up to us to fix this mess, to stand up and be the Adults in a way they never did. It is a daunting task, but who else can do it? At least we were raised to be flexible, thanks to all the changes we've lived through.
I still remember Muscle Cars when that's all there was to drive, and Libraries you had to visit and use a paper card catalog to find a book made out of paper. And it might not even BE there. That was our information storage. And mail that took days to deliver instead of seconds. And phone booths. And Newspapers. Transistor Radios as a selling point. And vacuum tube testers at the local pharmacy. And all sorts of things which have since vanished as technology has changed how we live. Its been a hell of a ride.
The changes we'll go through as oil goes away will be even bigger, but we really don't have a choice. Refusing reality is just choosing to die, and few people actually do that. They sigh, they have a temper tantrum, they get over it, then adapt. You will too.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Peak Oil, For Beginners
The following are facts. Important ones.
How can we deal with the end of Cheap Oil and the Energy Crunch?
What about Collapse? Where are things going?
Economics is brutal. It isn't nice. Energy is all about what you can do with it. We've wasted a lot making big noises and having fun with monster trucks and muscle cars. It was great fun. But it's over now. Or will be very soon.
In a few short years, whether the President enacts speed limits and rationing or leaves it alone, we'll be paying more than we can afford for fuel and all the goods shipped by it. People are short sighted and greedy. It defines our species. I learn about scooters and motorcycles and home cooking and gardening because I am trying not to get surprised by terrible events that I have no ability to stop or even deflect.
Optimists pretend that we can thrive in a future bound by expensive oil, high unemployment, worthless currency, travel limitations, and ongoing tendency towards Totalitarianism (no civil rights). The needs of the many, the greater good. That's the same excuses used in Bosnia, remember. That's another human failing.
I encourage my readers to learn about scooters, bicycles, cooking, and developing salable skills outside of information processing. Stuff you can do with your hands, locally. Someday you will probably find yourself eating or not because of them. There's little point panicking due to Peak Oil. Its reality. It is reflected in actual economic trends being tracked by people who get paid a lot of money to advise others on what to do.
Poor people like us will die if we don't do our part to weather this particular storm. Someday, if our species isn't massively stupid, we will stabilize again and recover much of what is going to be lost in this Civil Interruption. After all, food still grows whether there's oil or not. Not as much, not as easily, and with a lot more labor required, but we don't HAVE to starve. We just have to work harder doing dirty jobs we never thought we'd have to do. Nobody goes to college dreaming of dirt under their fingernails, or feeling grateful towards a field of carrot or wheat or soybeans. That's our future.
- Oil is a fossil fuel. It is the concentrated remnants of stored solar energy in the form of hydrocarbons. Once it is pumped out of the ground it is gone forever.
- The world uses 85 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd). The world economic crash (caused by Mortgage Derivatives) has reduced consumption to that from the projected 115 mbpd they thought we'd be using back when exponential growth was still a happy delusion. The USA was using 19.5 mbpd in 2006. It is using 14.5 mbpd now, due to the destroyed economy. This number must continue to fall, as domestic oil production is less than 5 mbpd. Ideally, we would match consumption to production. If our currency crashes we will have to.
- Since 1970, the USA stopped exporting oil and started importing it. This is the primary source of our trade imbalance and the major cost being shifted onto our grand children and the primary reason our economy is crap. We're spending large sums of money on oil imports, often from people who genuinely hate us.
- Oil production is declining worldwide. Some fields are bringing on new production at higher cost and lower quality, but most large fields are declining or going dry. Wars have been fought over oil for the last 100 years. We are fighting wars over oil right now.
- Govts and big businesses know about the end of oil and are planning for major disruptions as there's no effective work-arounds. There are expensive work arounds that benefit very few people, but nothing for everybody. This instability may lead to civil war.
- Without cheap energy, the economy must shrink.
- Typically, when an economy shrinks, people have less to eat and fewer means to support families. This leads to the population shrinking too. That means death, lots of it. Most will die of cold or flu or other famine related weakening of the human immune system. Most of the deaths will be very orderly, not riots in the street.
- Oil was discovered in 1859 in Pennsylvania, just prior to the start of the Civil War. After the war, it resolved the fuel crisis associated with coal (which heated homes and powered trains) and whale oil (lamp oil), allowing our civilization to expand, along with our population.
- The Olduvai theory (hypothesis), which ties cheap energy to large population, might be right. How far we fall due to energy scarcity is directly proportional to how much of our libraries survive, meaning we won't fall as far as previous Dark Ages.
How can we deal with the end of Cheap Oil and the Energy Crunch?
- Cheap solar can prevent the worst effects of the energy crunch, but may not be able to stop the deaths of a few billion people. Farmers don't work for free. Poor people don't eat. This is Scarcity economy so finger pointing and blame shifting is already happening.
- Synthetic fuel is possible, using algae or other feeder materials which extract sunlight and generate oil instead of sugar. They are not very fast or efficient methods. The best of them cost around $33/gal for biodiesel. Brazil's sugar cane ethanol is cheapest and will probably end up being imported, but it is still more money than oil... for now. Work is still being done, but there are no easy answers for sustainable fuel. Anyone who says it's easy is trying to sell you something.
- Cheap solar is possible and already discovered, just not implemented since the pieces are not together in a single patent, nor are the various patents actually being produced or widely installed. It needs to be on every roof and every field beside the railroad tracks so there is power for freight trains and homes after the oil runs out.
- Lithium is a rare earth element. It is very uncommon and there's only enough lithium for batteries for around 2 million vehicles. As this is the best power to weight ratio battery for electric vehicles, only the very rich, or the military, will have electric cars.
- Grid tied electric vehicles, such as Trams (aka Streetcars and overhead-electric buses) will need to be expanded into most cities and large towns to enable people to reach their jobs and retain specialized skills and products if the economy is to survive. We had these until 1925 when Standard Oil bought them out to force people to buy cars and gasoline. This was legal, at the time.
- Without electric vehicles, our only options are self powered vehicles (bicycles, sailboats) and high efficiency vehicles using expensive synthetic fuel. The highest efficiency vehicles are freight trains (which should all be electrified), barges, cargo ships (with kite sails), and motor scooters. Notice that the first few are huge, using bulk tonnage as a measure of efficiency.
- A scooter can carry you and a surprising amount of stuff at a very high fuel economy. They have been around for nearly a century.
- Cars can be efficient with fuel economy, provided the engine is small and the driver is willing to go slowly, under 45 mph. Under 45 mph wind drag is much lower so less fuel is wasted moving the vehicle and people inside it. A 1958 Bugeye Sprite gets 36 mpg. Good car for pulling girls. And this was before fuel injection.
- Modern ultralight materials and a motorcycle engine should be quite capable of duplicating or improving on the Sprite convertible. The Smart is trying to be this, but they're too expensive for what they are. If a competitor were willing to produce a similar type of vehicle at a lower price, geared for fuel economy at lower speed, then 60 mpg is entirely possible in a sub-compact car. Car companies have no motivation to do this, and slower cars don't sell well on modern 85 mph freeways. Most cars today reach Overdrive gear at 60 mph. This is engineered, and Overdrive is where you get your best fuel economy.
- The above facts mean we MUST reduce fuel consumption. If we improve fuel economy, that benefits us the most for long enough to build alternatives (trams), which take years to put into place. Historically, the public votes to fund things AFTER they have a disaster and suffer the consequences personally. Without disaster, there is no funding. This means it is probable we will experience a temporary fuel shortage sufficient to not be available at all. Maybe only a week or two, but still, such things have happened before: 1973 Oil Embargo and 1979 Energy Crisis. Each of these caused gasoline rationing.
- The sanest and most equally irritating means of national fuel economy is reducing maximum speed limits nationally. The President can do this, at his own discretion. The congress can ratify it within 60 days. Jimmy Carter forced 55 mph max speed limits on the nation back in 1976. It was unpopular and led to his not being re-elected. The current president is a lame duck. Forcing this speed limit has no impact on him so it would be sane and rational if he did so. Daily commutes at 45 will take twice as long as 85 but also use half as much fuel due to hugely reduced wind drag.
- The next method of fuel economy is deliberate rationing. The congress can institute this legally after a Presidential "Emergency Measure" under some pretext. That's what I would do. Violence in the Middle East is ongoing. You don't have to do anything but wait. Rationing can be sensible, but still irritating and painful. Once the public is used to rationing, those rations can be cut, forcing carpooling and higher efficiency vehicles. Businesses on the edge will fail if they don't adapt effectively. So will families.
- Local food production is important thanks to frequent disruptions of transportation as the economy shifts from prior high-energy systems to more efficient ones. Farmers markets, sales of local farm products to supermarkets and restaurants, and construction of warehouses to replace the high-energy JIT systems is necessary.
- Local rail spurs may be necessary to make towns worth resupplying with food and medicine. Failure to make delivery energy costs as low as possible will likely lead to non-competitive shut-out and collapse.
What about Collapse? Where are things going?
- Collapse has already happened to Detroit. Detroit refused to adapt to modern reality, hiding behind Cheap Oil inefficiency and High Profit vehicle sales (SUVs). While oil was cheap, their Compensation Vehicles sold well. When oil hit $4.50/gal in 2007, that Ego bankrupted those unable to adapt. The tax dollars went away, the lights and water are getting turned off neighborhood by neighborhood and the murder rate is one of the highest in the civilized world. Smart people have already left, nearly half the population at this point. Detroit was arrogant, and their city died. There are hundreds of Ghost Towns in the Western USA that are examples of what happens when a town doesn't matter anymore. This will continue.
- Collapse happened to New Orleans. Most of the people who fled Louisiana to escape Katrina did not return. They took their check and settled somewhere else. The US govt has not rebuilt the 9th Ward, merely paid men to clean it, badly, and didn't bother rebuilding the Mississippi coast either. It doesn't get as much press, because they're ugly poor people so who cares, right? Its not like Ugly People deserve to have civil rights or respect. This is how Americans feel about each other. The cult of celebrity is evil.
- I am noticing repairs in New Jersey seem to continue with that pattern of New Orleans and Detroit, of deliberate and methodical economic abandonment. I expect that legal requirements to construct to current building code is a cost effective way to force poor black people out of those towns, and replace them, after sales of the land, with mansions full of rich white people. But New Jersey isn't racist.
- When the Big One hits SF and LA, those will likely only face partial reconstruction, and only for the very rich areas. Underground utilities tend to be completely destroyed in the ground waves from earthquakes. The 1989 Santa Cruz quake caused most water and sewer pipes in the entire bay area to crack and required replacement. This took years and billions of dollars. A big quake today would result in instant loss of water and sewer, with potential cuts in natural gas lines, fires, and no water for fight fighting. Most of the damage in the 1906 quake was from fire. Even if there's no fire, or they don't spread, the cost of replacing all those pipes is in the trillions today. And that will cost tax dollars, probably from sales and property taxes. Think triple rent, with no showers and water that smells like sewage for several years. The rich will get fixed first, because they can PAY. The poor will get screwed, as always. Those apartment buildings and middle class homes that survive the quake will be torn down or left as ruins, perhaps claimed as "National Disaster Areas" permanently. Or turned into wildlife habitat parks. It has happened before.
- The part of Anchorage Alaska destroyed in the 1964 earthquake was turned into a park and a new city was constructed nearby on more solid ground. I have been there.
Economics is brutal. It isn't nice. Energy is all about what you can do with it. We've wasted a lot making big noises and having fun with monster trucks and muscle cars. It was great fun. But it's over now. Or will be very soon.
In a few short years, whether the President enacts speed limits and rationing or leaves it alone, we'll be paying more than we can afford for fuel and all the goods shipped by it. People are short sighted and greedy. It defines our species. I learn about scooters and motorcycles and home cooking and gardening because I am trying not to get surprised by terrible events that I have no ability to stop or even deflect.
Optimists pretend that we can thrive in a future bound by expensive oil, high unemployment, worthless currency, travel limitations, and ongoing tendency towards Totalitarianism (no civil rights). The needs of the many, the greater good. That's the same excuses used in Bosnia, remember. That's another human failing.
I encourage my readers to learn about scooters, bicycles, cooking, and developing salable skills outside of information processing. Stuff you can do with your hands, locally. Someday you will probably find yourself eating or not because of them. There's little point panicking due to Peak Oil. Its reality. It is reflected in actual economic trends being tracked by people who get paid a lot of money to advise others on what to do.
Poor people like us will die if we don't do our part to weather this particular storm. Someday, if our species isn't massively stupid, we will stabilize again and recover much of what is going to be lost in this Civil Interruption. After all, food still grows whether there's oil or not. Not as much, not as easily, and with a lot more labor required, but we don't HAVE to starve. We just have to work harder doing dirty jobs we never thought we'd have to do. Nobody goes to college dreaming of dirt under their fingernails, or feeling grateful towards a field of carrot or wheat or soybeans. That's our future.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Wine is Truth
The first job I held after Graduating College (much harder in those days. We had STANDARDS!) was working as a temp for a wine storage company. We had a warehouse full of boxes of wine bottles. Not barrels, as it wasn't a winery. I worked there first as a filing clerk, then an order entry clerk selecting wines from the inventory to ship to customers around the Bay Area and into Sacramento. I worked in an office filled with married women and they sometimes forgot I was there, and their discussions were traumatizing disparagement of marriage, biology, or the laughable concept of love. That stopped me from dating for the next 3 years. Sad panda.
While there, I did get to meet and work with dozens of small family wineries. And I do mean family. These places were often started in someone's garage or a barn on a family farm, where they'd replaced the low-value pasture with grape vines in the 1980's and 1990's (See "Bottle Shock") and within a few years had sufficient grapes to experiment with making and selling wine, or more often trading it. The movie Bottle Shock has Alan Rickman being a snob, Chris Pine being a man-slut, and Eliza Dushku (aka Faith) as a bartender. Most is filmed in Napa County, the other wine growing county which runs beside my own beloved Sonoma County.
Another movie about wine making is A Walk In The Clouds. It has Keanu Reeves, who wasn't great in this flick, but it does show off home well, from atop the Maacamas Mountains between Sonoma and Napa counties.
Boutique level garage wine that's any good gets traded, drunk on special occasions, and gains a huge reputation. That bit in "A Good Year" where the Napa blonde explains about garage wines is quite literal. I have made wine in a garage. I was only 9 and just helping with the steps, but it was a fun family event and a couple families, working on the weekend, can make passable or even excellent wine for hobby prices. Lots of people did. I doubt they still do. Grape prices are higher today, and the quality of mass produced wine is way up. Garage wines remain fantastic if done right, because small batches and sufficient care can result in outstanding quality. Very small wineries, run by a couple families and keeping those levels of quality is where you get your $25-50 bottles of wine. And yes, its really that good.
Not everyone is capable of tasting the difference between that and a $16 bottle of wine. Mostly that's an unsophisticated palate, but sometimes that's where a super-taster mutation is the advantage. Most food critics have that mutation, with roughly 3-5 times as many taste-buds, something which is visible if they stick out their tongue. They're sort of forced into that industry as critics because they really KNOW when food is bad, in the same way I can tell when a singer or instrument is even slightly off key. Pain, the most effective teacher. When a super taster says a wine is really good? Believe them.
You should do some experimenting of your own, starting with good wine and working your way down by review and price. When you can't tell the difference between the $18 and $12 bottle, buy the $12 and save your money so you can fill your cellar with the Nectar of the Old Testament God. After all, Noah made wine with Gods full permission. Then he got drunk and restarted slavery, starting with his own son. Its in the Bible. But the Bible isn't science. Its hearsay. Science rescues us from ignorance, and science gave us really good wines.
Winemaking is a type of advanced and very specialized biochemistry. Of sugars, acids, and fermentation. Its ongoing liquid chemistry, oxidation, filtration, settling, the use of woods and tannins to affect flavor, and an end product worth billions of US dollars a year (and that's just in Sonoma and Napa counties). I would live there if I could afford it. The weather is fantastic.
One of the important things I learned is that the proper temp for serving wine is cellar temp. Not chilled to 40'F in your fridge, but closer to 56-60'F. If you serve the wine too cold, the chemical reactions on tasting and oxidization are not quite right. Cold wine tastes acid. Closer to room temp the fruit flavor becomes more obvious, and displays the quality of the wine, of the grapes used. The warmer it gets, the faster it oxidizes and spoils, which is why an empty wine glass sitting out smells bad and the true flavor of that specific wine comes from a clean dry glass.
My own preference is for reds rather than whites. I am very fond of Zinfandel, closely followed by Cabernet Sauvignon. Pinot Noir (small black) is an excellent fruity grape and produces fruity wines good with steak compared to the more peppery Zinfandel and the sharper Cabernet. Each of them is excellent with french bread, olives, cheese. I can tolerate Chardonnay but the better ones, more expensive ones, are easier to stand. Cheap white wines tend to be pale and boring or acid or both. Red wines can be cheap but often taste better for the dollar. Also, while the belief the the red pigment in red wine is part of the health source in the Mediterranean diet, there's currently no evidence to support that. I think red wines just taste better. The difference between red and white wine? Its when you take the grape skins out: before or after primary fermentation. I say leave them in, get the full flavor. And not too many stems. They tend to make it really acid. A good Zinfandel has some stems in the fermentation, source of the pepperiness. Same with a cab.
I recently had a glass of Gnarly Head Old Vine Zinfandel and I can say its superb. I think its $12/bottle. Compared to my typical table wine, a Fox Brook Cabernet which is only $1.98/bottle, the differences are both startling and obvious. I used to enjoy Ravenswood Zinfandel, which is $8-12/bottle but sometimes $6.66, though their quality varies a lot due to Ravenswood being a blender rather than wine maker. They buy someone else's barrels and blend them for effect. So its kinda risky. If you like variety in a Zinfandel, that's a good choice. They also make a good Cabernet, but their Zins are why they're famous. Back in the days of better employment and two incomes in the household, good wine was an affordable luxury. I hope to achieve that again, someday. Under no circumstances should you drink Beaujolais. It means new wine, and its awful. Like rocket fuel. Its the wine equivalent of moonshine and tastes terrible. Years later after aging and blending that raw stock will be civilized into something good with dinner.
In the old days wine was always made in big oak casks, up to 15 feet high and banded with iron. In October and November, the weeks after harvest, they leave the doors of the winery open so the huge billowing clouds of Carbon Dioxide created by primary fermentation can flow out rather then build up and kill the person who opens the door or walks in by accident. And it did kill winery workers every year. (and wearing a gas mask won't help you since the CO2 has displaced all the other air.). Those accidents are much rarer now. They mostly hire experts and get them green cards if they're Mexican or help them obtain citizenship since the old days. It has increased their pay and largely ended the stabbings by drunk and grumpy field hands.
These days the casks are mostly for storage and wine is made in stainless steel tanks with flakes of the right oak wood to provide the flavor and chemistry of cask fermentation. Its much more closely controlled so wine is likely to turn out well rather than go wrong. Its very scientific. Once that's done, the wine typically goes into an oak barrel, which is 59 gallons and they get racked and stored in the cellar by forklift. The cellar has a constant temp and the enologist and wine maker test them for qualities and potential blending to get a consistent or special bottling, as per their needs.
Managing this ongoing stock and bottling when the time is right is really important, since the entire process is investment until the cases and bottles start selling. Many wines aren't sold until 2-3 years after the grapes are harvested, just to give you some idea. Picture putting that kind of time and effort and storing all those materials in a temperature safe manor. Its millions and billions invested. Big corporations often buy wineries to reduce their taxable incomes, particularly if their bought Senators don't stay bought. Wineries are also something Old Money buys for long term investment. They DO pay out eventually. They just involve a lot of time.
I kinda wish I knew more about the industry, too. The Wine Making specifically. The wines we made when I was a kid were good for cleaning car parts, far too acid. Some of them were said to be good, but I never got to taste them. The 1986 Pinot Noir, old vine, late harvest, vintage we saved for years from when I was 11 was spoiled by the time of my wedding.Very sad. I was really hoping that heavily fruited grape would eventually simmer down from the excess tannins from the unburnt french oak barrel (at the time there were no barrel makers in California), not realizing the inside of the barrel must be burned with a propane torch to activate charcoal, which effectively filters critical chemicals in the wine and has a huge impact on the quality. We didn't know. There was no internet yet. Those things were secret. If I were rich, I could go back to my Alma Mater for a full Viticulture/Enology BS degree, maybe even a Masters in wine making. Enough to run a boutique winery's production for years on end, make and blend excellent wines, and turn grapes into money.
In the old days, it was hard to make much money in wine. That is no longer true. Enough is known that wineries that take it seriously can to serious business, and make serious money. I respect that. I don't like the car-salesmen who get into it, talking up vintages like they know anything, all about the money. There can sometimes be excess greed. The family ones? Usually not. Trouble is they tend to get bought out after a few bad years by the business pricks, and it can ruin their quality when they get turned into serfs by greedheads.
This is the big downside to the Wine Business. The money can spoil everything. It can destroy reputations. Talented people can leave the region and turn struggling places, like Oregon or Chile, into famous champions. And America loves the Underdog. Business goons don't care. They're selling reputation and don't care if its any good. They want their money. I just wish they'd get out of my home and stop ruining the place. A little money for the good wines, and acceptable prices for the less perfect wines, and you end up with happy customers and ongoing production. I really hope that businessmen pushing around Vintners will come to appreciate the value of quality and restore some of that power so a Winery can succeed by long-term quality rather than short term profits. Consumers and critics pay attention after all. If the wine is bad, there's no hiding it.
While there, I did get to meet and work with dozens of small family wineries. And I do mean family. These places were often started in someone's garage or a barn on a family farm, where they'd replaced the low-value pasture with grape vines in the 1980's and 1990's (See "Bottle Shock") and within a few years had sufficient grapes to experiment with making and selling wine, or more often trading it. The movie Bottle Shock has Alan Rickman being a snob, Chris Pine being a man-slut, and Eliza Dushku (aka Faith) as a bartender. Most is filmed in Napa County, the other wine growing county which runs beside my own beloved Sonoma County.
Another movie about wine making is A Walk In The Clouds. It has Keanu Reeves, who wasn't great in this flick, but it does show off home well, from atop the Maacamas Mountains between Sonoma and Napa counties.
Boutique level garage wine that's any good gets traded, drunk on special occasions, and gains a huge reputation. That bit in "A Good Year" where the Napa blonde explains about garage wines is quite literal. I have made wine in a garage. I was only 9 and just helping with the steps, but it was a fun family event and a couple families, working on the weekend, can make passable or even excellent wine for hobby prices. Lots of people did. I doubt they still do. Grape prices are higher today, and the quality of mass produced wine is way up. Garage wines remain fantastic if done right, because small batches and sufficient care can result in outstanding quality. Very small wineries, run by a couple families and keeping those levels of quality is where you get your $25-50 bottles of wine. And yes, its really that good.
Not everyone is capable of tasting the difference between that and a $16 bottle of wine. Mostly that's an unsophisticated palate, but sometimes that's where a super-taster mutation is the advantage. Most food critics have that mutation, with roughly 3-5 times as many taste-buds, something which is visible if they stick out their tongue. They're sort of forced into that industry as critics because they really KNOW when food is bad, in the same way I can tell when a singer or instrument is even slightly off key. Pain, the most effective teacher. When a super taster says a wine is really good? Believe them.
You should do some experimenting of your own, starting with good wine and working your way down by review and price. When you can't tell the difference between the $18 and $12 bottle, buy the $12 and save your money so you can fill your cellar with the Nectar of the Old Testament God. After all, Noah made wine with Gods full permission. Then he got drunk and restarted slavery, starting with his own son. Its in the Bible. But the Bible isn't science. Its hearsay. Science rescues us from ignorance, and science gave us really good wines.
Winemaking is a type of advanced and very specialized biochemistry. Of sugars, acids, and fermentation. Its ongoing liquid chemistry, oxidation, filtration, settling, the use of woods and tannins to affect flavor, and an end product worth billions of US dollars a year (and that's just in Sonoma and Napa counties). I would live there if I could afford it. The weather is fantastic.
One of the important things I learned is that the proper temp for serving wine is cellar temp. Not chilled to 40'F in your fridge, but closer to 56-60'F. If you serve the wine too cold, the chemical reactions on tasting and oxidization are not quite right. Cold wine tastes acid. Closer to room temp the fruit flavor becomes more obvious, and displays the quality of the wine, of the grapes used. The warmer it gets, the faster it oxidizes and spoils, which is why an empty wine glass sitting out smells bad and the true flavor of that specific wine comes from a clean dry glass.
My own preference is for reds rather than whites. I am very fond of Zinfandel, closely followed by Cabernet Sauvignon. Pinot Noir (small black) is an excellent fruity grape and produces fruity wines good with steak compared to the more peppery Zinfandel and the sharper Cabernet. Each of them is excellent with french bread, olives, cheese. I can tolerate Chardonnay but the better ones, more expensive ones, are easier to stand. Cheap white wines tend to be pale and boring or acid or both. Red wines can be cheap but often taste better for the dollar. Also, while the belief the the red pigment in red wine is part of the health source in the Mediterranean diet, there's currently no evidence to support that. I think red wines just taste better. The difference between red and white wine? Its when you take the grape skins out: before or after primary fermentation. I say leave them in, get the full flavor. And not too many stems. They tend to make it really acid. A good Zinfandel has some stems in the fermentation, source of the pepperiness. Same with a cab.
I recently had a glass of Gnarly Head Old Vine Zinfandel and I can say its superb. I think its $12/bottle. Compared to my typical table wine, a Fox Brook Cabernet which is only $1.98/bottle, the differences are both startling and obvious. I used to enjoy Ravenswood Zinfandel, which is $8-12/bottle but sometimes $6.66, though their quality varies a lot due to Ravenswood being a blender rather than wine maker. They buy someone else's barrels and blend them for effect. So its kinda risky. If you like variety in a Zinfandel, that's a good choice. They also make a good Cabernet, but their Zins are why they're famous. Back in the days of better employment and two incomes in the household, good wine was an affordable luxury. I hope to achieve that again, someday. Under no circumstances should you drink Beaujolais. It means new wine, and its awful. Like rocket fuel. Its the wine equivalent of moonshine and tastes terrible. Years later after aging and blending that raw stock will be civilized into something good with dinner.
In the old days wine was always made in big oak casks, up to 15 feet high and banded with iron. In October and November, the weeks after harvest, they leave the doors of the winery open so the huge billowing clouds of Carbon Dioxide created by primary fermentation can flow out rather then build up and kill the person who opens the door or walks in by accident. And it did kill winery workers every year. (and wearing a gas mask won't help you since the CO2 has displaced all the other air.). Those accidents are much rarer now. They mostly hire experts and get them green cards if they're Mexican or help them obtain citizenship since the old days. It has increased their pay and largely ended the stabbings by drunk and grumpy field hands.
These days the casks are mostly for storage and wine is made in stainless steel tanks with flakes of the right oak wood to provide the flavor and chemistry of cask fermentation. Its much more closely controlled so wine is likely to turn out well rather than go wrong. Its very scientific. Once that's done, the wine typically goes into an oak barrel, which is 59 gallons and they get racked and stored in the cellar by forklift. The cellar has a constant temp and the enologist and wine maker test them for qualities and potential blending to get a consistent or special bottling, as per their needs.
Managing this ongoing stock and bottling when the time is right is really important, since the entire process is investment until the cases and bottles start selling. Many wines aren't sold until 2-3 years after the grapes are harvested, just to give you some idea. Picture putting that kind of time and effort and storing all those materials in a temperature safe manor. Its millions and billions invested. Big corporations often buy wineries to reduce their taxable incomes, particularly if their bought Senators don't stay bought. Wineries are also something Old Money buys for long term investment. They DO pay out eventually. They just involve a lot of time.
I kinda wish I knew more about the industry, too. The Wine Making specifically. The wines we made when I was a kid were good for cleaning car parts, far too acid. Some of them were said to be good, but I never got to taste them. The 1986 Pinot Noir, old vine, late harvest, vintage we saved for years from when I was 11 was spoiled by the time of my wedding.Very sad. I was really hoping that heavily fruited grape would eventually simmer down from the excess tannins from the unburnt french oak barrel (at the time there were no barrel makers in California), not realizing the inside of the barrel must be burned with a propane torch to activate charcoal, which effectively filters critical chemicals in the wine and has a huge impact on the quality. We didn't know. There was no internet yet. Those things were secret. If I were rich, I could go back to my Alma Mater for a full Viticulture/Enology BS degree, maybe even a Masters in wine making. Enough to run a boutique winery's production for years on end, make and blend excellent wines, and turn grapes into money.
In the old days, it was hard to make much money in wine. That is no longer true. Enough is known that wineries that take it seriously can to serious business, and make serious money. I respect that. I don't like the car-salesmen who get into it, talking up vintages like they know anything, all about the money. There can sometimes be excess greed. The family ones? Usually not. Trouble is they tend to get bought out after a few bad years by the business pricks, and it can ruin their quality when they get turned into serfs by greedheads.
This is the big downside to the Wine Business. The money can spoil everything. It can destroy reputations. Talented people can leave the region and turn struggling places, like Oregon or Chile, into famous champions. And America loves the Underdog. Business goons don't care. They're selling reputation and don't care if its any good. They want their money. I just wish they'd get out of my home and stop ruining the place. A little money for the good wines, and acceptable prices for the less perfect wines, and you end up with happy customers and ongoing production. I really hope that businessmen pushing around Vintners will come to appreciate the value of quality and restore some of that power so a Winery can succeed by long-term quality rather than short term profits. Consumers and critics pay attention after all. If the wine is bad, there's no hiding it.
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