Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Someday, Electric Bicycles


This is an electric bicycle. It has a battery and an electric motor. It costs around $3000. It has around 12 miles of range, then needs to be recharged. The batteries will work for about a year, after which you have to replace them, for around $1000. For a few people this is okay, but for most people, only 12 miles can be ridden by someone slightly fitter, on a standard bike that weighs 40 pounds less, and only costs $200 instead of $3000. In the real world, a lighter bike is a better deal. Unfortunately, I live in a place with really steep hills, unlike flatland, so the torque boost of an electric bike actually makes sense here. However, the price and range limits ruin it again.

Right now, the very best battery technology uses lithium ions with special conductors that help it charge and discharge without damage, using some semi-exotic materials. They are mostly in test phase, not in production. The best you can buy are Phospho Iron Lithium Polymer (aka LIFEPO4). The charge density of these batteries and the ability to discharge more than half the battery without damage means they're carrying more useful charge. That said, its still only enough juice in 10 pounds of battery to be equivalent of around 10 miles of pedaling. In the real world, a light weight bike and a fit rider do not need this, because the 10 pound lighter bike will go just as far as the weight of the battery, motor, etc.

In my research I learned that even a 49cc 2-stroke was a more efficient bang for my buck, since a 49cc motor is around $35-40 on ebay, plus oil and gasoline and a set of tires for a basic scooter and the parts to keep it working. For the same year that an electric bike would work before needing to replace its battery you can run a scooter for about 4 years on that money. Right now, an electric bike is stupidly expensive, and its annual costs are assinine.

Research into bicycle theft shows that people steal bikes with any perceived advantage over any other bicycle. A clean bike will be stolen before a dirty one. A bike with newer tires or brighter paint will be stolen before one with worn tires or drab paint and dull reflectors. In the real world, parking an object with wheels that can be picked up and put in the back of a truck or rolled off is asking for it. Even if you use a lock. It is still asking for it.


Scooters and motorcycles are also stolen by people with a pickup truck, which is the preferred method. But most of the ones stolen are "Japanese bikes", meaning new, fast, and generally referred to as "rice rockets". Realistically, older, slower bikes with narrower tires like an old Honda Rebel 230cc is superior to most motor scooters, but you have to repair various parts since you'll be buying this used. The Rebel was made as a starter bike, and is meant to be sold on for around what you paid for it, with no markup for parts replaced, like tires, chain, battery, etc. You ride one to learn how to ride a bike with a clutch, and then sell it, and put the money towards an upgraded bike with a bigger engine.

The Rebel was a cruiser, so its like a baby-Harley. The thing is, if you take this bike and fix the various parts and potentially give it a seat a few inches taller and an oil cooler, you might be able to improve the performance and handling. And its still more useful than a scooter because it has better brakes, a bigger engine, and is legal on the highway. It won't be fast, but its way faster than a scooter.

However, what if someday a better battery comes into existence? Enough that a bicycle gets 50 miles of range, and cheap carbon fiber equivalent frame and torque sensors means you get boosted range and speed on an electric bike, and they become so common that everybody has one so there's no point stealing one.

A battery that good would also make for fast golf carts, capable of the grocery run or taking the kids to school. Most school runs are only a couple miles each way. An electric cart allowed on the street for the school run would make sense. This battery would make better hybrid cars, and allow for hybrid electric trailers with electric suspension (like the McLaren MP4-12C) and computer controlled leaning so a trailer could go FAST on roads, including variable right height. No more blocking traffic and making Jezza furious. Efficient dense batteries that hold lots of power for their weight and bulk are exactly the sort of thing you want for a battery powered future to be anything but a Jetsons Dope Fantasy.

So imagine a really dense battery that fits inside the frame of a Canondale or equivalent bicycle frame. Enough to get you 20 miles of range, and covered in semi-transparent solar panels which just looks like paint but actually boosts the power to the batteries, so when you park it in the sun, you get a partial recharge. Imagine if recharging from stand alone chargers is a coin-op or card with a PIN pay as you go option. Never give away electric power. It is never free. Still, having it for sale would be useful. When I drive over Donner Pass, it being about 45 miles away up some pretty roads, I keep thinking about a slower alternate route so a bicycle or motor scooter could do it without worrying about swerving Walmart trucks (well, any trucks), so the core issue here is not just the technology of the vehicle, but a safe place to use it. As things are now, there are several sections of I-80 which do not have a reasonable alternate route, so attempting to bicycle it is a Darwin Award. If I ran California's govt I would have had that alternate route built, including the quiet side road along Bear River, and the additional trail through Yuba Gap, currently a campground, and connect Eagle Lake Road down to Spaulding Lake trail, which would then connect to Bear River byway, the proposed bike and scooter road.

There are unpaved dirt roads north side of 80 (orange) which could be paved for cyclists and slow scooters. I include scooter because even though they produce lots of exhaust fumes, there won't be that many and they deserve to use slow roads, same as bicycles. I would also, as leader of California, change the max speed for electric bicycles from 20 MPH max speed to 35 mph uphill, and no limit downhill. I've personally hit 55 mph downhill on a 10 speed, back when I was made of rubber like all teenagers, and I've hit 45 mph on local hills coasting down them. Very exciting, btw. And surprisingly easy to do with a properly maintained wheel bearing set. Keep in mind this area is mostly ruined by mining a century ago, then burned out a couple years ago due to pot growers igniting a fire while trying to refine Honey Oil (Hashhish oil) using a butane setup. Those explode. Dozens of homes burned, and the guilty party escaped without penalty. Its utterly destroyed now. In any case, there's no homes there now so its pretty easy to get a road built through it without much legal challenge. The best part is since this is the north side of the hill, the summer heat will be less, and water stops along the way can be supplied relatively easily.

A good electric bike is probably NOT going to have regenerative braking unless these fancy batteries can actually recharge more than 10% of the power, which is around what they do in the real world. There's a lot of loss of power to heat in the electric motors, and recharge rates for batteries are chemically limited. Limiting their speed at all surfaces is asinine, and further proof of the incompetence of Democrats. I've seen a few examples of electric scooters and electric bicycles. All of them cheat the law, and face seizure if the local cops decide to enforce them. Those motorized bicycles are only legally allowed at 33 cc 2-strokes, which are too weak to pull the local hills. The 80 cc upgraded motors are illegal, and require the bicycle to be registered, taxed, licensed and plated at DMV, with road taxes etc, yet still quite unsafe. You may as well buy a used motorcycle, which has a suspension and brake. I think that Scooters, having a simpler operation, are ideal for tiny towns like this with their very narrow roads, and a smart town council might offer a resident discount every three years, so locals could buy one cheap and use it for local shopping etc. It makes real sense most of the year. Not when there's snow on the ground, obviously, but good sense the rest of the time.