Peak Oil: Advanced

Steep learning curve from beginning to advanced. The truth behind peak oil is this:

1. Energy is economic. Its value is what it replaces, in human labor in particular. A gallon of gasoline does the work of 50 people. And it costs $3.33/gal. That's huge and very cheap. If gasoline cost the same as beer served at the bar/pub, it would be around $30/gal. Ponder that the next time you fill your tank. 
2. Energy is food, but it doesn't have to be. Organic farming gets around the standard oil-based inputs and focuses on improving soil fertility the hard way, via careful monitoring, crop rotation, and human labor. This means we don't have to starve just because oil is getting expensive. This also means that a Die Off is NOT NECESSARY. We may have to bicycle to work, but we don't have to die. This is VERY important to understand. 
3. Energy is convenient thanks to a lot of labor saving devices we've grown up with. Most of these run on electricity, which run on power plants, which involve oil at some point, even their parts or delivery or the insulation on  your wiring. However, it is possible to synthesize oil from coal, from various plants including pond scum algae. We don't have that scaled up to provide all our needs and we probably won't for some years after we're all used to bicycling either. Growing fuel is less convenient than drilling it out of the ground, but growing it involves fewer wars. 
4. Cheap solar exists as patents, yet is not currently out as products. When the money is right, the products will show up. Cheap solar replaces grid-based electric uses pretty evenly, but you should expect a more decentralized power generation system when you've got cheap solar panels on your roof and in various fields of bad land or exposed rock or sand or over every parking lot and commercial building roof. Its going to be everywhere. Cheap solar takes very little maintenance and the power is predictable based on sunny days so it can be engineered for.
5. Wind power works best when its big (Pi-R-squared), not small, and requires lots of maintenance because it destroys itself and isn't very efficient. The best place for wind turbines is on tops of ridge lines where the air is less turbulent and the wind speed is constant. Variation is speed and direction and changes in either physically break turbines, which then require expert attention and parts to repair, neither of which is quick or free. Solar is better.
6. World trade does not END just because there's no oil, or oil is very expensive. Goods carried can be brought around the world using SAILS and modern materials and automation, such as wire cables and electric winches. Computer controls can do this very well, provided maintenance is done and GPS remains in use along with weather forecasting. A modern ship is a lot like an expert system supercomputer. It does a lot of the hard things for the captain and crew, including navigation and ballast control and communications. Apply this to sailing vessels connecting to weather satellites and buoys and you can avoid most of the hazards of navigation pretty easily, most of the time. No more blundering into typhoons or becalmned regions of ocean, and supplies can be air-dropped in an emergency. Modern desalination means no running out of fresh water, and sufficient food stocks and solar panels keeps everything running fine, just fine. And mean it. Being a sailor on a future sailing vessel, complete with electric winches and masts welded to the top of the shipping containers? Oh yeah, that's gonna be awesome. 
7. Indifferent Socialism is probably going to be our dominant form of govt. If you die, nobody really cares. You better look out for yourself and your family because the govt won't. There is no legal requirement for the govt to insure you survive. Doesn't matter how you voted. We're back in Tammany Hall territory. Accept that.  
8. Rail and barge traffic are going to increase because they are fuel efficient, by the ton. While not as fast or convenient as a car, rail does move passengers pretty well, and lots of freight. I expect this to become the dominant form of long distance transport in the USA in coming decades. It will largely be electrified and probably not that fast thanks to traffic issues and all the fun railroad managers will have routing passengers, express lines, and freight. Its the future. Making the best of rail travel will be a lot like having a Eurail Pass, only across the American states and Canada. Aircraft are going to be for military and the very rich. If you have to ask what Very Rich means, you aren't. Many of the rich will just get their own rail cars again, like they did 100 years ago. Its a special form of elitism. They'll likely have barges and sailboats too, since that is also elite, and a way to show off and make others chase you. 

These are the most important factors to keep in mind for the post-oil world. Things change, but other things stay the same. We'll still have laptops and cellphones, even if we're riding bicycles. We'll still have dinner, and we'll still have music and TV and internet, post oil. We'll even have car races, though we'll take the train to get there. I'm sure some hard cases will go back to riding horse and buggy to get around, but others will just ride bicycles and scooters, depending on fuel cost. I suspect when a scooter passes a horse its likely to go berserk and kick in every direction. Some horses just aren't good in reality. Legal cases for whose to blame when the horse has to be put down and the scooterist has a hospital bill thanks to that horse. Who is liable? Stuff like that will be in the newspaper, or I should say local news website. Many things will change, many will just look a bit different. We'll adapt. And adaptation is the really important point of Advanced Peak Oil studies.