A little Peak Oil commentary here. Haven't written one in ages.
Its about both Fracking and ISIS and Ukraine, and they all get attacked the same way. Lowering the oil price hurts all three. Fracking only works when the price of oil is more than the price of extraction. When it stops being efficient and profitable, the companies doing it have to stop and wait till the price rises again. If they don't have the funds to wait, they go under. Fracking companies that go under are at risk of being bought out by international conglomerates, such as those owned by the same Saudis dumping oil onto the market. It makes sense as a deep play because it helps them retain control of oil in the long run. And it will eventually make them rich.
ISIS gets most of its funding, after the initial executions and beheadings across Iraq and Syria, from selling oil. They were counting on the oil to keep their cult of murder and mayhem going, because ISIS always says that Islam is a peaceful religion. That's why they keep beheading people and executing Christians and other Muslims. Peaceful, they insist. Every muslim says that, but muslims hack people's heads off. The last time America dealt with this sort of recalcitrance there was carpet bombing. I suspect that might be necessary, however the Saudis have dropped the price of oil by nearly half and ISIS doesn't have easy money anymore. I think we should blow up the dams we built so they all die next summer, but that would be rational. And the power plants. And any kind of public utility. Don't rebuild after, either. If you are fed up with bad people, don't help them kill you. Just wipe them out. Be sensible for once.
Russia is still seizing most of Ukraine it can reach. Whether they leave a little behind for the last Ukrainians or kill them all is unknown at this time. What is known is that Russian billionaires get most of their money from oil sales and holdings, and they are leveraged to the hilt. Suddenly, half the value of their oil is gone, and Russians frack too, which isn't cheap. The collapsing price of oil means these billionaires have even more reason to assassinate Putin and put somebody sane on the throne of the Russian empire. Of course, Putin still lives, so they aren't trying very hard. Yet. After yesterday's crash of the stock markets and oil price, Putin has more reason to cower in a bunker, but his ego won't let him. So sooner or later, he'll be popped into hamburger or explode in a booby trapped car or see his motorcade destroyed by IEDs or Fire Ants. There are many ways to kill a Putin. And he did run Lubyanka prison for political torture. They have a big laugh about Americans slapping and splashing prisoners. Oh noes! LOL.
So this is why Saudi is dumping oil, and why there's been this big spastic reaction, and why over the weekend someone will remind brokers that the Saudis can't keep dumping oil forever and this is now bargain season. Lots of deep discounts on stocks. Those who buy them will see their prices come back very soon. And the price of oil will rise again. Probably back to $80 or $90/bbl.
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