Monday, January 26, 2015

Renault RS-1 Build

In 5 months Renault created a car to race from scratch.
And its a car now. For 282K pounds you can get into racing with this amazing beast made of carbon fiber and pretested and engineered using CAD.
Why is this important? Because a complete car was imagined, digitally test, built, and live-tested in the real world in only 5 months. None of this "well, we need at least 3 years lead time to make any changes" like the Big3. Five months. Why isn't American doing this? Why aren't the auto engineers who got unemployed after decades of budget meetings at GM and Ford and Chrysler doing this? From what we see here, the RS one has a team of around 30 guys involved. Once a car is built and the design formally ready, it can be sold to a card company for millions and then mass production follows. If mass produced, this car would be able to sell for a fraction of the listed price of the prototype. Down to corvette money.

Apply the same design techniques to more conventional designs and less expensive engines and you could seriously reinvent automobile production in America. Rather than be strangled by committees obsessed with budget and using the lowest bidder parts, a supplier wiped out by the Big 3 bankruptcy, CNC can make lighter parts through mass production and auto buyers might feel some enthusiasm rather than resent what crap they're forced to buy because that's all which is available. What if a Mazda Miata were made of carbon fiber? That would halve the weight, and suddenly the original inline 4 engine would be able to make it quicker accelerating, which is what MOST people mean when they describe a fast car, not merely top speed. What if that engine had a small turbo like so many have now? A 1.6L turbo, stick shift on a car that weighs around 1200 pounds? That would be pretty interesting on twisty roads by the seaside or in the mountains.

What if the Ford Fiesta replaced its steel body with carbon fiber like the above RS-01? That drops the weight by half, and the existing turbo engine is already quick. What happens when the power to weight ratio doubles because the weight halves? How much wild fun would that be? The obvious answer to car sales doldrums is wide use of carbon fiber. This improves CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) and drastically improves acceleration so even a small efficient engine can get you up to freeway speed in 4-8 seconds rather than being run down by the truck in the slow lane. Modern turbo diesel engines have a wider torque band and are nearly as quiet as gasoline. Ford has imported its turbo diesel ecoboost 3 cylinder 1.0 L engine block for production in the USA. At this point I think they're being blocked by corruption in the Senate (small surprise) but that's the sort of thing which changes every couple years. Perhaps the new senate will clear the way. When the really corrupt ones retire or implode into senility obstacles get removed and small turbo diesels can get into things like a Fiat 500 built in America, from Carbon fiber instead of Indian Steel at the TATA plant. Besides, the world is about to lose the Red Sea and Suez Canal as a shipping route, thanks to Yemen converting to Al Qaeda. This is a big deal to Europe, and makes delivery of Indian products and Chinese products twice as expensive. American products become relatively cheaper, provided we can produce what they want. We're about 5 days to Europe by sea. China is now around 20. Think of all those manufacturing contracts... And China is unlikely to smash Al Qaeda in Yemen because they have other concerns. The USA has everything to gain by pulling out of Yemen entirely and letting the Red Sea become pirates and anti-ship missiles and the Middle East race to build nuclear weapons in every worthless desert. It is ironic that I agree with the President on pulling out the region. We gain economically by doing so. And we also stop spending money trying to civilize arabs by force. That hasn't worked so far, not in 2500 years. If the oil in Saudi has to go through its southern loading port, that's fine. If Suez gets attacked by radicals in Egypt, that's fine too. The returned high price of oil helps fracking operators, since oil services company Schlumberger laid off 9,000 oil workers due to the price dropping too low to profit. The price comes back, so do the workers. And so does the oil production, putting the USA as the top oil exporter, and justifying the Keystone XL pipeline. Exporting oil paid for a lot of civil engineering products, which made large areas of America inhabitable and catapaulted our rough frontier nation into first world status. We need to get back on top of this again, and the Keystone XL is important. Yes, we'd be shipping oil overseas, but we'd be shipping it to Europe, who can pay well for it, and it fixes our trade imbalance.

I really think every auto engineer should look hard at these videos and think about what Renault did and ask themselves if they like cars enough to investigate carbon fiber as a regular construction material. Building out of steel had its place, last century. Today we need lightness. Cars are as cheap and crappy as they can get, and steel and plastic car are coming from China and India now. The crappy cast plastic dashboards in American cars get slammed by Top Gear because they are crappy plastic. We have forests. We can put wood there. We can finish cars properly so the Europeans don't have such an easy target for snobbery. Even Jeremy Clarkson has found American cars he likes. Richard Hammond is a long-time fan of American muscle cars. James May likes the little ones he can drive barely in control with thin tires and throttle floored. Surely we can make something more fun than a Panda. Clarkson was very positive about the Fiesta and the Focus. They are proper hot-hatchbacks. With carbon fiber and the gearbox and suspension tuned to the weight, and the half-shaft to mechanically correct the torque steer, with independent rear rather than torsion bar... the Fiesta could get better. Much better. And it was already car of the year in 2013 despite its flaws and plastic dashboard that rattles. Surely if Renault can build something amazing, so can we?

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Discount Stock Month

Something the big trading companies understand, and the billionaires too, is that there are stocks whose price is based on hype, and stocks whose price is based on reality. Hype stocks make money till the market drops them back in the toilet. Sometimes this takes a while, which explains certain unprofitable tech companies. There's even a number for this, called the P/E Ratio, which is Price to Earnings. Most billionaires don't invest in stocks with a P/E above 14. Not if they want to stay billionaires. Billionaires are notoriously practical and frugal, for good reason.

There are many companies with millions of shares of stock but earnings are barely in the black. They seem to make their money by selling stocks while operating something vaguely profitable, or should be, but they're not doing that well and the competition is catching up. Tesla is an example of this. Tesla's primary business seems to be selling dreams of electric cars. There are a few around, but there are a lot more Nissan Leafs and millions of Priuses. The Tesla is just too expensive. It has been stated by market analysts examining the company financial records that most of Tesla's income is from selling CAFE waivers to the Big 3, allowing them to meet the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) law requirements in a complex scheme of govt buybacks and exchanges. It is not simple. It should be simple. Due to the falling price of oil, a temporary situation, owners of Tesla stock are selling it off. Since the announcement of a $2 billion dollar factory to be constructed in Reno that will process raw lithium brines from a mine in Nevada and turn them into complete battery packs for cars, and then sell those packs to China who has strong market reasons to want them for their huge car buying public, rather than here. I wonder how many batteries you have to make to justify $2 billion investment, plus wages for all the workers? Tesla announced last week that they won't make a profit till 2020. The stock is the lowest its been in years.
 
Its CEO seems to be all about staying in the news, and some psychologists think he's got an abnormal personality, possibly Bipolar or something more exotic that craves attention. The Hyperloop is what I call seriously impractical, delicate, and a terrible idea. You want a huge vacuum vessel filled with very fast projectiles full of people during a time of Muslim terrorists? Really.
 
What I see in his company is that his cars cost as much as much nicer luxury cars which weigh considerably less and can fill their tanks easily at things called gas stations so they can go on trips, which people with luxury cars do. The current Tesla is no better equipped than an Accord or Camry, but costs 2-3x as much and goes half as far. How is this competing with a Leaf? I think these are the reasons the stock is down. The oil price drop just made people think about electric cars rationally. When the price of oil goes back up, the stock might not follow. Time will tell. You don't get rich investing by believing in your hopes and dreams. Legalizing biodiesel powered cars, waiting to come here from Subaru and Audi and BMW and Honda is the easy answer, and they avoid the battery trap of excessive weight, poor life, long recharge times, explosions, and durability problems. They already have models ready for the USA. Right now our only choice is VW and those monster Cummins diesels. Ford has some brilliant turbo diesels ready for small passenger cars, and they get Prius mileage.

When the stock market goes up, people make money. When the market goes down, stocks go on sale, and smart investors buy the ones which are artificially and temporarily depressed by the overall crash. So these days with big drops? Stocks are on sale. This is why the market keeps having big up days too. Overall, having the market go way up and way down and way up again is called Volatility. Volatility is best for those with steady nerve, and solid understanding of the stocks they own, or trust in the fund managers to know that. Usually, mutual funds (a bunch of stocks with a manager) do well because the people running them do the work to understand things. They understand the news and vote the stocks and don't accept slimeball CEOs and con men in companies demanding golden parachutes for a few months or a year's work while wrecking a company with their egos. And there's a lot of companies like that. Some of them are so dumb the employees don't quit and people don't sell the stock despite the company being obviously out of control and run by a cult of personality. There's a really famous Fruit Computing company known for this. Its not the only one with this problem, either. One that rhymes with "Damn Son" is famously brutal to its staff. I refer to this problem in investing as "Rock Star CEOs" and I don't invest in companies which have them. When CEOs are making big grins of assurance to trust them, that's when things are about to fail. Egos go off the rails and the company implodes, which is bad for stock values. Companies which are run well don't have time to shoot their mouths off on camera. Failure is when the bluster starts getting loud.

Another rule by billionaire investors is "don't invest in anything that's too complicated to explain where the money is coming from". This is why the billionaires stayed well away from Bernie Madoff and his Ponzi scheme that defrauded a lot of greedy idiots and put him into country club jail for his retirement years, playing tennis. Can't see where the profit comes from? Don't invest. There's a LOT of con artists in the world, and most of them wear suits and flash charming smiles and sound really confident. They're exactly the sort that get hired in sales jobs because they're highly effective liars. These sorts of people are not to be trusted with your retirement fund.

Finally, don't own shares in companies that do business with villains. Villains like Vladimir Putin, who killed thousands of people and tortured more as the former head of the KGB, is the tyrant in charge of Russia, and wants to expand Russia back into an Empire so is making an example of the Ukraine to scare the rest of the former USSR into doing Russia's bidding, giving them stuff free, and return to being a bunch of puppet states that will be sacrificed and enslaved like all good peasants. This is a bad business plan. At present, due to the oil crash destroying the primary source of Russian wealth, oil exports, Google stock is worth more than the entire Russian economy. Yes, Google is a big company composed mostly of data servers, but it doesn't have tanks, planes, ships (yet) or a nuclear weapons arsenal. It is highly likely that Putin will be assassinated (eventually), probably by the Russian Oligarchs (billionaires) who have lost the most due to his ego. This is what assassination is for, after all. You shoot mad dogs. Or call the animal control to do it for you anyway. So investing in Russia or Iran or Nigeria is a really risky thing to do and if you want to retire, you can't throw away your investments by putting them into businesses who are involved with these places, and these villains.
 
For a prior example consider the story of Standard Oil. Standard Oil was on the wrong side of Mexico's revolution and it was seized by the communist revolutionaries there. This had the negative affect of threatening ALL physical investment in Mexico and trapped it in a 19th Century economy and resulted in its able-bodied population going to the USA to work its fields rather than stay home and invest in basic stuff like hospitals, roads, and sewage treatment plants, all of which it desperately needs. Mexico has a terrible reputation for corruption internationally, and its presidents routinely flee the country at the end of their term, usually with a fair bit of the treasury. The citizens of Mexico shrug and say "that's the way things are". This makes it a bad investment. Even the official change to the constitution last year that will allow foreign investment in oil has NOT resulted in a rush to get into the place. After all, they stole billions from Standard Oil and now the reservoirs are dry after funding the wealth of their most corrupt? Who wants to play in that sandbox? And what's to stop them doing the same thing again? Nothing.

Retail numbers are terrible because people are poor. And its after Christmas so people bought stuff and can't buy more till they've got money again. Its debt payment time, not shopping time. This is obvious. The only retail that's doing well, beyond grocery stores, is suppliers of repair parts for homes and cars, and dollar stores, which sell things for a buck so women who can't resist "shopping" for their hobby can do it really inexpensively and still feel like they're exercising this particular muscle.
 
It would be useful for people who are looking at how their 401K is invested consider the above factors. They can probably protect themselves from their retirement fund evaporating like it did when they were heavily invested in Tech stocks during the Dot.Com boom, or that big overpriced house they bought that's worth half what it used to be. You need something to live on when you can't work anymore. If you live in a trailer, or rent a tiny apartment and spend your time away from its noise and stench, you aren't going to be as happy, but you lose a lot of choices when your retirement income is small. Do your best, think things through rationally, and remember that when you're younger, you can take bigger risks, but when you're older you can't. Time marches on. Someday you'll be old. Probably. Think hard about your investments and if those companies are full of p00p or stable with actual products that make money. If your fund is being mismanaged, you'll see the stocks stop growing in value, and your fund going nowhere. Sometimes that's because the economy is crap, and sometimes its because the manager has gotten conned and now the piper must be paid. So pay attention and even if you won't be a billionaire you might be able to avoid getting trapped in a slum someday.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Dodging Ugliness

There's a lot of Ugliness in the world today. Perhaps it was always like that, but then again, those who made our world this terrible WOULD say that to reduce the burden of their own guilt or getting looking another direction while they grab their money and run for it.

When I was a lad, there was a crime called Pandering. It apparently put politicians in jail. They got arrested and tried in court and went to prison for it. The newspapers, sometime in the 1990's, lost track of the word and now it seems to have been purged from the Lexicon, very deliberately forgotten. Along with the arrests and jail terms for committing this crime. This is a terrible thing, because Pandering was a crime worth prosecuting. Removing it as a crime means this is not SOP. This is NOT okay for those of us old enough to know why.

Today we have pandering politicians. Some of them behave as if entirely insane. Law affect areas, all at once. Laws that exist to attack, not to help. Attack. They are modern violence, enforced by cops, for political reasons or to enable the upsides of bribes by allowing special exceptions. Reversing bad laws is a matter of millions of dollars in lawyer fees, and years in court. Or you can avoid it entirely by leaving town, which is cheaper. Leaving stupid places behind is a cheaper answer.

This does mean that those who have sanity but find themselves surprised by insane laws do NOT invest in communities, or have particular reason to contribute taxes to areas which are going to attack them legally anytime soon. So long as communists are allowed to operate openly, that community is evil and WILL attack soon enough. Because the money always runs out. And those in power know its easier to hurt people than it is to give up the power. My whole life I've observed this behavior so I know it to be fact. It is unpleasant, but it is how people are. Those who insist otherwise are evil.

Getting away from villains is why I'm so in favor of geography, of mobility, or minimalism (the opposite of materialism). It is easier to get away from villains when you have less to carry when you leave stupid behind. There are many interesting places, with few people to ruin things with communism, and a mobile life gets you out of bad situations which are meant to impoverish and break you, to turn you into a debt-slave for the comfort of your "superiors". To turn you into a peasant-slave who will work yourself to death, loyal and silent, doing till you DIE for the comfort of your "moral superiors" which is what every Progressive claims to be.

In that environment, where laws attack you and you have to pack up and leave, it is best to ignore what can't be changed. The best revenge is living well, or more importantly, surviving the result of these mistaken beliefs that have inevitable consequences. Beyond the obvious mobility to leave terrible violent laws behind, what New York City residents should do rather than accept creeping socialism, disarmament, and racial hate crimes encouraged by the Dictator running that city. Leave. Leave it behind because you can't change how things are.

Until such time as new boom towns are started in smarter places where water is close and cheap, land is cheaper, and its a blank slate to build a town shaped however you like. Until you can move to a new town, from scratch or rebuilt from the old designs that don't require living with gasoline, until then you have mobility. The Communists, the Progressives, attack everybody who disagree with them. And everybody who agrees with them too. They are a cult. They are deluded. They deny reality and hurt people to keep the dream going, their drug trip, their insanity. Driving away from progressives means you escape their attacks, and maybe live better than you would putting up with them impoverishing and enslaving you. So how do you live well when you have to keep moving? Keep your RV or trailer clean and maintained. Park it in places which are clean and maintained. Always have the money to buy the fuel to leave town, so when things go bad you don't have to put up with it. Most RVers have a secondary vehicle, usually a bicycle or scooter or even a small motorcycle with panniers so they can go grocery shopping without wasting gallons of gasoline. I need to get that license for a motorcycle. With my car having issues, I need a backup option beyond a bicycle in this town of mountain roads and steep canyons.
 
If you're doing the mobility survival options, rather than the Die In Place(tm) suicide bunker, then you'd better be prepared to examine your life and determine what objects are actually crucial to your happiness, and realize that carrying those objects is going to cost you both fuel and require physical size of your RV or trailer. And that bigger that is, the more it will cost. I've known building contractors who lived in truckbed RVs and built their home, once they found the right place for it, while sleeping inside. Its not comfortable, but it is better than a tent. If you love broadband, wire your setup for it, or stay in places where you have wifi. And live somewhere with hot showers and clean laundrymat on the site. Some trailer parks are good at their maintenance. Be sure you only stay at those to avoid the serious mental health problems that arise from dirt, stink, nasty neighbors, and crime. The stuff you find in bad trailer parks.
 
It's not ideal, this moving around, but in an economy where all jobs are minimum wage or will be soon, your mobility is your happiness. If you sit still, you'll get abused. The money always runs out when you try for Totalitarianism. And then its the finger pointing, the attack-taxes, and death Happy camps. We already know the parties in power don't care about the Middle Class, and global poverty seems to be the real goal. That's wage equality. Remember how the Progressives always go on about that? Wage equality is all headed for you starving to death in the darkness and cold. Drive away from that. Leave those kind of people to die without you. Don't help people murder you. Don't stay to help them. Don't pay them tribute for their bad ideas. I've seen too many cults murder their membership. This Communism thing is just one of them.
It will eventually turn into another Jonestown massacre. Don't be there for the final act.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Jefferson State Gains 3 More Counties

Double crossed by Sacramento is right on their flag. The Jefferson state movement submitted the petitions from three more rural California counties to secede from the state. State workers are kinda baffled about this. There's nothing in the manual on how to deal with entire counties telling them "you are fired!".
 
With the ongoing insanity of the Ungovernable California continuing to selfishly ignore all but the cities where its majority of voters live, there is something to this. Yes, its not done yet, but its getting closer.
 
I live between Yuba County and Placer County, with Sierra to our North. If Placer goes, Nevada County will have to follow, though Jefferson state will have to offer something locals want to get the county to accept the deal. Such as lower taxes and restored civil rights stripped by the state's ever growing social programs which largely don't apply to the 92% white residents. Reverse discrimination is a real thing, after all.
 
Both parties should be in favor of keeping kids in school all five days of the week, instead of "teacher training". And getting rid of the teacher's union which protects child molestors in schools, there could be some advantages for the conservatives. Why is keeping child molestors out of school a conservative value? Are Democrats in favor of molesting children? It is their union. If the money raised by local taxes stayed local, that would help quite a lot. Probably. We might even get funding to repair all those campgrounds and pay a war veteran to look after them, like they used to back in the 1980's. Like California stopped doing in the 1990's.
 
And maybe Jefferson state would reopen the mental hospitals and put the "homeless" back into their padded rubber rooms again? That would be a good thing. Would really cut down on the weird crimes and creepy shouters on the street. Schizophrenia is very sad. That one was Regan's fault. But Clinton could have funded their reopening instead of staining some hooker coeds dress and lying about it. Same with the current president. The homeless around here sleep under the trees and die of cold or heat. They are mental patients abandoned by their govt. They deserve a roof, medication, and doctors.
 
I will continue to watch the progress of this movement. If they win I hope to find myself in the new state and have better job opportunities result. None of these California scams. We can have all new scams.

Civil Engineers Give America D+ For Public Works Maintenance

The Greatest Generation grew up during the Great Depression, fought World War 2, came home, got married, built and bought houses, got jobs, and had children. They swore their kids would not go through the same hardships they had. And those children are the most spoiled generation in history. The grownups survived the war and built wonderful public works: roads, bridges, airports, skyscrapers, huge businesses that employed lots of people and gave them the opportunity to become better people, to buy houses and raise families of their own. But the Baby Boomers didn't bother. They got HIGH, and screwed anybody they could, and then got religious cults and more drugs and divorces and abused their families and turned into worthless crap. And while they were staring at themselves in the mirror, preening, the roads and bridges were rusting and falling apart.
 
So here we are today, with the baby boomers retiring after exporting the jobs and burning all the oil and having a really great party out of life, leaving Gen X, Y, and Millenials to clean up after there trash and mistakes and mismanagement. And its a big job. We really could have used the money they spent on big screen TVs and useless foreign wars and imported cars to keep up the roads and bridges, but they left us a quadrillion in debt, held overseas by nations which don't necessarily like us very much and hold the power to dump it all at once and utterly destroy our currency in a week. And we still need to fix the bridges before they fall into the river, like the one in Minneapolis.
Pretty much every bridge in America will do this at the wrong time, when the most weight is on them, which generally means heavy traffic.
 
Basic infrastructure has common weaknesses, namely rust and stress. In engineering sheer stress after deformation is well known. Since the shearing parts are often covered in paint or concrete so  you can't see them the failure is often preceded by small clues or none at all. Then you get collapse. In the future of greedy retired Baby Boomers and no construction loans, the population mourns the deaths, cleans up what they can, and then learns they can't build a new bridge after all, and that means going around or using a river ferry, which is dirt slow and pretty useless for large numbers of cars. And businesses, the primary reason for the bridge, suffer. So they either get new staffs, move closer to their workers on the correct side of the river, or close down.
 
Here in California, we've got a hugely embarrassing boondoggle caused by the asinine mayors of San Francisco and Oakland shooting their mouths off. The New San-Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge cost 10x what is was supposed to, isn't done, and is rusting when new due to contractors not finishing their work, or the next contractor not getting assigned for three months when the steel was exposed to salt. Steel + salt water/air = serious rust. And the steel that's rusting is a critical structural part, promising to fail like the Minneapolis Bridge above. Only, the fall will be a couple hundred feet, killing the working population of San Francisco on the way to the Market District, where the Billions are traded and managed daily. San Francisco is called the Paris Of The West, which is not inaccurate. It has lots of corniced buildings, maintained Victorians, slums, and dogshit. Its very dirty, crowded, and full of hatred and money. More importantly, it is one of the better developed cities on the Pacific Rim, like Tokyo and Shanghai. The Pacific Rim, in general, has lots of Earthquakes, so there's strong need for carefully engineered structures and the understanding that rebuilding is necessary after a quake, which still knock down your best efforts because the energies are so fierce. Quakes in Oregon are capable of killing thousands in Japan, thanks to Tsunamis. Same with quakes in Alaska able to kill thousands in Hawaii and dozens on the northern California coast near Crescent City and Eureka.
 
We also have a lot of rivers in California, which hold little water most of the year, but too much water some of the year, during the spring thaw. The Sierra Nevada Mountains catch pacific storms and store that water as snowpack in the high country. In spring, it melts, roaring down river channels and into the flatland, where rivers wind in the farmland, protected only by earthen levees. Levees are a particular engineering challenge. Initially they sound like a good idea, a kind of long dam that keeps the river within its banks. In reality, the physics of hydrology, the study of water and sediment are such that rivers naturally curve and cut. They can't go straight for very long, and a mild turn will become a severe one, naturally, due to how water works. Civil Engineers know this. Rivers form their own levees, low ones, then rise in flood and cut through them, leaving abandoned stretches of former river. Rivers are anarchists on benders. They don't contain themselves when they get riled up. Eventually the rivers will burst. California does get serious types of rainstorms which are warm, coming from Hawaii, called Pineapple Express. These systems can stabilize for weeks, bringing inches of rain a day and melting the snow in the high country, or drastically adding to it, and then flooding downstream all at once, completely filling reservoirs and overtopping dams to then surge downriver and burst levees weakened by normal river action over years. The farmlands that flood, such as around Marysville, grow rice that feeds 1 billion people. That's one billion. Most of the population of Japan eats rice from Marysville. China is a big buyer as well. They ship us electronics in big shipping containers. We fill the containers with rice and ship them back. We get toys, they live another week. Everybody wins. Unless the levees fail.
 
And why would the levees fail? Because the state contracted ineffective repairs, for bribes no doubt, to not repair them but look like they're doing something, to be seen doing something. They aren't really being repaired in many places, though a recently passed funding bill has them started on repairs near Marysville. That location is getting slotted metal plates, which will help, but not actually save the levee from natural physics.
 
They need to fix the ones in Stockton too, unless they are planning to flood out that violent city and force the population to leave. Stockton is on very soft and unsteady ground. The highway there is worked on continuously for over a decade now, and never seems to be finished. It is also at sea level and is a port where containerships offload rather than pay the higher fees at Alameda's Port in the SF Bay. The San Joaquin Delta is a tricky place due to being slightly below sea level, again behind levees, and potentially turning into a salt marsh in the event of a flood and high tide. This would cut off Los Angeles, the East Bay and San Jose from drinking water, all at once. It would also block water to the West side of the South San Joaquin valley, which runs nearly to LA in desert conditions, getting 2-4 inches of rain a year. The east side has the rivers out of the Kern reservoir. The west is sand and tumbleweed and I-5 (highway). Lose the fresh water from the Delta pumping station near Tracy, just east of Livermore's Altamont Pass, and LA has to evacuate in 90 days, which is how much water they've got in their basin's reservoirs. Really. It is that serious. Only civil engineers seem to know or care about this, but its tremendously important to around 25 million people, most of whom are blissfully ignorant. If the Baby Boomers had been less selfish and more thoughtful, they wouldn't have built homes and businesses dependent on one pump.
 
Honestly, even America can't afford to lose LA and SF all at once. Nobody has to die, but the evacuation of millions is hugely disruptive to the economy and we're talking trillions in real estate and business losses. The businesses can possibly relocate, but without some options viable to the employees, they evaporate too. If you move and your employees don't come with you, you have to start over with new people and go through the training costs and mistakes all over again. Few companies can survive that. People find a way to be essential so they can't be fired, and this includes NOT documenting essential secrets of a position. If you doubt this, ask someone in a Union. The economic impact of 25 million people seeking new homes, all of them in bankruptcy, is trillions of dollars of disaster. Its bad enough to collapse the US stock market and bond market, a housing disaster as they try to find shelter, and the loss of farming, including the national supply of vitamin C oranges (different from orange juice sweet oranges) which is completely dependent on the aqueduct. So the nation gets scurvy, too. It would be a sort of reverse Okie, with all those fleeing California for the East and Midwest, presumably to relatives that can cram these unemployed and disenfranchised into their homes and towns and not dissolve into domestic violence or even riots. It would mean decades of poverty as all those disenfranchised and evicted attempt to build some kind of life, including starting businesses that are heavily loaded with regulations put into place by bribe-taking communists. Small business is a major enemy of communism, which is why the local pot growers are submitting a voter registration cards to change their political party. Democrats are Communists, obviously. Progressive just means Totalitarian, which is another name for Nazi. Their politics are too extreme, and they attack the middle class. The whole point of a small business is profit, and being told by the head communist Democrat "You didn't build that business" is a declaration of war against 80% of the population who either own a small business or work for one. Big corporations exported their labor overseas so are not just enemies of the public commerce. They should have thought of that while alienating all the voters with the ability to "get even" through trade tariffs.
 
And meanwhile, little work has been done to protect against infrastructure collapse. The roads are worse than ever. Houses stand empty, and sewer systems are leaking into broken water pipes to give residents cholera they think is from bad food. This is not just a public health problem. This is bigger than that. Civilization itself is defined by public works. Roads, bridges, clean water, public libraries, hospitals, fair law enforcement, fair taxation, garbage men and ambulance services. Variations on this make for huge differences of opinions and even civil wars. In the past, Islam was in favor of these things, but they've since fallen into Oligarch worship and suicide squads. Cordoba Spain had public lighting in the streets during the dark age, though it is worth noting they weren't the first city to try this, and while Timbuktu had a famous library, it was wiped out by continued drying in the Sahel, a grassland south of the Sahara desert but north of the equatorial jungles, where the Silk Road ran across Africa carrying spices, coffee, silks and slaves. The bible, and Koran, are full of justifications for slavery and treating people like animals. This is one of the reasons I'm an Atheist.
 
Civilization has standards of living, most of them around public behavior and cleanliness. We used to call them Decency. The Anti-Humanist "progressives" are utterly failing to maintain standards of decency, have failed to maintain public works for the public good, which is all that taxes should be used for, not social experiments to dehumanize people and take away their choices. If you want to be a Nazi, live in some Socialist country instead of here. Like Massachusetts or New York City; countries like that certainly aren't American anymore. Drive through Oakland and Hayward and you smell the stench of broken sewer lines, and see the bright green in the gutter. The locals feel abandoned by our civilization so behave like violent barbarians, killing, raping, and getting lost in drugs. If their streets were clean and there were a good reason for civic pride, would it be like this? I wonder. Racists think black people are inherently evil, prone to violence and self destruction. They dehumanize those who live in crappy conditions and suffer traumatic abuse. More racists spent lots of money on psychology and drug addiction and crime enforcement (the opposite of LAW enforcement) in those areas, rather than improving basic living standards. The streets are broken, they stink, and people get sick and sick of being treated like animals. Slumlords are allowed to ignore basic standards of living and housing enforcement doesn't correct this. It is ugliness that shouldn't happen.
 
The consequence of letting your infrastructure fall apart is eventually the cost of fixing it makes the place uninhabitable and people leave when there's an event sufficient to get people to notice there's hip deep in sewer runoff. It isn't quite there yet for Oakland, but it is close. When the rains come back and Stockton floods, that city will see people leave too. And South Sacramento floods, and power blackouts in the summer make the heat there beyond miserable. Sometimes its easier to build a new city with new infrastructure than it is to fix the old stuff when there's so much else wrong you are "this close" to throwing up your hands, packing a Uhaul, and leaving town for good. The rural areas are friendlier. Its mostly a matter of a job, and if you take your business with you its still better than dealing with the crime and ugliness of a hip deep sewer.
 
Besides, building a new town is a lot of jobs for a lot of people. All sorts of business opportunities. This is one of the reasons Japan used to move its capitol every few centuries. It made for a building boom and stimulated the economy. Maybe America should be thinking about this too? Drop DC, move the nation's capitol to Denver, like they'd been discussing for a century. The water is radioactive and full of heavy metals, but there's lots of space to build and a swamp like DC needs a rest.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Cat Lady Law Ends College Romance in California

There's a new law, put into place by communist State Senators, signed into law by the head communist of California. Its called Affirmative Consent. It affect all college students, making it a sex crime felony to have sex without affirmative consent for each and every action involved. Violating it makes you sex criminal, not only kicking you out of college/university but also putting you on the Megan's Law list, a list which is permanent and denies you legal rights you had before. After reading this law I can only say I am glad not to be a college student.

The entire concept is ridiculous. Young women are not generally very vocal or affirmative during intercourse. Some are, and go into pornography. Most aren't. Since most aren't the sort to make lots of Yes noises, and few men want to interrupt the flow of things to ask permission for every step like Milktoast missing the necessary bits for the act in the first place, I can only conclude the entire law was created by people with other intentions.

What would be the point of effectively banning sex for college students?
  1. Preventing distractions, though the frustration will probably create more spree crimes.
  2. Preventing college sweethearts from marrying by making sweethearts into felons.
  3. Reducing births by preventing sex.
  4. Denying young women legal access to sex.
  5. Driving young men to seek sex from professionals in states where such laws don't exist.
  6. Reduce tuition costs by removing students from the state colleges entirely.
  7. Reduce out of state attendance rates by discouraging students from coming to California at all.
  8. Increasing cat adoption for the lonely spinsters.

It wasn't clear from the description of this insane law whether the felony applies when non-college students have sex with college students, or the fiscal impact from losing all that tuition from Male out-of-state college students who will no longer be attending in California.

I think the Lesbian League has miscalculated. When a Lesbian breaks this law, the consequences are the same as a male "raping" a coed, under this new definition. She will be facing the same vicious consequences and become a sex predator for life, face Megans Law for life, go onto the map and have to visit official counselors, for life. Neighbors will shiver on sight at the clearly listed pervert and child molestor, because that's what the Law makes official. Same as skinny dippers in rural rivers.

The only folks gaining from this are the SPCA, who will be offloading lots of cats to insane spinsters who will never get to have sex because they lost their best years in college and ran out of places to meet the sort of men they'd kinda like to know better. Too late. Missed their chance. Get surrounded by stacks of newspapers and cat pee. This law makes cat ladies.

And its going to be great at driving college students out of California, of both sexes. Free college tuition just won't be enough to correct this attack. I can't see the state supreme court likely to strike it down. This state is insane, and the govt running it is eccentric. The kind of senile that needs to get into the rest home, and serious medication and a nurse to wipe up the dribble. This is the trouble with good weather. You get old people moving in, and not as sharp as they used to be.

Boom Towns

You may have heard of a hippie festival in August called Burning Man. It is held at Black Rock Lake in Northwest Nevada, Northeast of Pyramid Lake, North of Reno. It's the bed of former Lake Lahontan, a really huge dry lake 100 miles across but cut by mountain ranges as islands, and went to 600 feet deep that existed during the last ice age and will refill again someday from the runoff out of Lake Tahoe, once the ice comes back. The lake beds from the Big Dry are spread all over, and being salty, aren't worth much to the local ranchers. Renting them out is dirt cheap.

The festival forms by cars loaded with tents and tables, RVs, trailers towed behind various vehicles, and even old VW Camper (Westphalia) vans. Pop-top campers, they're called. They trickle in from all over the world for this festival of art on a lakebed. It's a boom town, and in a few days it cleans up, everybody leaves and goes home again. This is proof that the ability to throw together a town, for a reason, remains possible.

Snow Birds, a type of retired RVer and Trailer-dweller that still have the money for fuel, form an annual town in Yuma Arizona, near the Mexican and California border close to where the Colorado reaches the Sea of Cortez. It is warm there in the winter, and approximately 1 million RVers gather there annually to wait out the winter in a warm place. RVs have minimal insulation so "If its warm outside, its warm inside. If its cold outside, its cold inside." In Spring, the Snowbirds pack up again and leave for the warming mountain meadows which offer low priced parking, excellent trout fishing, fantastic views and wildflowers for the amateur photographer, bicycling, rafting, and hiking. All the stuff they swore they would do while toiling in crappy jobs where they earned the money for this.

Snow Birds create villages of each other in campgrounds around the west, gathering, making friends, going to the local sights together or politely waving to each other. Some tow a cheap bubble car or a jeep, others carry a Vespa on the reinforced bike rack and leave the RV parked in a central location, then use the Vespa to go out to dinner or park at a trailhead. Thankfully, people don't seem to steal them, and Snow Birds pay their bills, unlike the hippies from Burning Man, so they're welcome in towns and restaurants.

With RVs and trailers, you can tow or drive a surprising number of like minded people to a location and create an economy like a flash mob. A surprising number of craftsmen follow festival events for every conceivable hobby or trade show. They live in RVs too. Some build their hardware on the road, others build in the offseason in a workshop with a foundation, store it for sale during the year. These vendors and craftsmen can be a festival draw all their own.

At present, brick and mortar cities are coasting on inertia and reputation that they offer the best workers or the most high paying jobs at a particular location. The Bay Area around San Francisco Bay is a prime example of this con. The workers aren't any smarter. The jobs don't pay enough to make up for the higher costs for everything, including rent, so you largely end up just as poor and unhappy as you would anywhere else. The only real advantage of the place is space to anchor ships and natural summer air conditioning from the sea, though that's not as good as you'd expect it to be, and fog for A/C is available on the entire coast, and the Bay is either too shallow to anchor ships or moving too fast thanks to the river to anchor there. The big and important downside of the SF Bay is there's no drinking water supply for the 10 million people living there. Its pumped over mountains, and the pumps aren't free. They are subsidized by state taxes. This has become a substantial cost, and one that displaces benefits of operating there. A rational business leaves the Bay Area. The voters, slowly being dominated by communists, keep voting themselves raises. You can't be profitable in that situation.

So if you're a business looking for a place to be, you can be anywhere the critical elements are and the essential geography favors your operations. The workers will follow. If they don't, they'll starve. And you can train new people, if you are a competent business anyway. In the post-oil economy, which we're inevitably drifting towards, transportation costs are relevant to your calculations. Maybe not so much this year, with oil falling temporarily, but in the next decade and those after certainly. In the future, efficient movement of goods is understood to be done with electric powered freight trains. You can supply the electric grid with hydroelectric power or nuclear power or wind power if it works for long enough, or solar panel farms. This isn't free, but it is sustainable in the long term, with effort and maintenance. There will be jobs for people looking after it.

There are a lot of places in the Western states which have water, which allows life, but lack conventional geographic advantages other than NOT being in the expensive and overpriced Bay Area. I believe that the Bay Area is going to empty, eventually. It doesn't make sense if you aren't requiring the Bay itself. And most of the port activities are currently done in Stockton to avoid all the costs of the Longshoreman's Union in Alameda. Since we're all getting poorer, there's decreasing need for gigantic container ships from China and Japan anyway. Which is ironic because ships are fuel efficient ways to move cargo, like trains. We still need ships. We don't need them that big, however.

When I was in High School, I used to hear the Pacific Coastal Railroad horn blow when the lumber express zoomed through town. My town, Santa Rosa, was still industrial back then. The train wound down from the north coast, and the tracks were usually open more than the highway, which often washes out in storms. This being earthquake country, the roads built through brittle canyons prone to landslide and wildfire and fallen trees and even flash floods. They'd shut the thing, leaving a 300 mile detour through a different road which also would wash out, sometimes in the same storm, and the North Coast got rain year round, unlike the Bay Area and Central and South Coast, which only got rain in winter. There's a crucial ocean temperature difference which seems to gain the jet stream's passage and funnel storms up there just like Portland and Seattle.

Being a few hundred miles south of Portland, yet getting a Portland level of rain, you would think this would be an ideal place for people, provided they build their homes to resist/survive earthquakes. This is less difficult than you might think. Wood frame houses with anchor bolts on their foundations do pretty well in quakes. If the town in question is started by a population that arrives with critical craft skills in RVs and Trailers to construct the critical infrastructure (public utilities and streets), creating the temporary boomtown which turns into the real thing as people work to more permanent construction. Ordinary people and ordinary businesses just can't make the math work in overpriced areas like the Bay Area. Relocate to the North Coast, northern Sacramento Valley, Eastern Oregon, Nebraska, and it works again. And since we as a nation desperately need lots of jobs to employ our youth to avoid a civil war over the poverty caused by unemployment, we need places to do it in. Right now, many future companies are simmering in garages and hobby shops and kitchens, waiting for the time to be right. Namely, for the economics to work. Right now, with communists running the govt and preventing business, this is the wrong time. But in time, the hobbyists who want business profits and employees are shifting into a sense of mobility. Staying in stupid places, like the Bay Area, is becoming painfully obvious a way to lose. Moving to the next business boomtown, that has more of a future. Whichever opens up first is likely to gain the next big business. Right now, Reno is trying by removing obstacles and they're employing people, at minimum wage, at Amazon. That's not good enough, but it is the right direction. Tesla is building, or will be building, a battery pack factory. They won't make cars there. They're likely going to ship the batteries they make to China, via the railroad to a port that's cheap, probably Stockton or Sacramento, which also has a containership port. You need a big crane for that, and a deep water channel so a fully loaded ship won't get stuck getting to and from the Bay.

Between railroads and containerships you can get your raw materials and ship your finished products to market. Provided you've got access to one or the other, you're in business. Just so long as the idiots paying too much, in the wrong places, don't bribe the officials to shut you down because you make them look stupid to their stockholders, and they like their lives of privilege and golf course country club memberships. Moving them away from that makes them feel poorer. Another Baby Boomer problem fixed by retirement. Its going to feel really painful for homeowners to abandon their homes, or sell at market rate, in the Bay Area and Los Angeles and relocate, build a new home, construct a new building for their business, and train new employees at the new location far away, where water is both available and cheap, unlike the Bay Area and LA. This is a big step, but its one that will happen because desalinating sea water is very expensive, very energy intensive, and costs even more than pumping. Those who get there first gain the benefits. But they also take the risks. But when the first arrivals have wheels, they can also leave pretty easily too.

Realistically speaking, this is the future. San Francisco is a Bay that's shrinking from alluvial infill. There is no port of San Jose anymore. Alameda must be dredged just to stay open, and cheaping out on port dredging has gotten ships stuck, which results in big lawsuits by captains against the pilots steering the boat, and increased costs, making the point of the port moot. Eventually, San Francisco Bay will be a delta with a fast moving river in it and a smallish area for port business. It doesn't have enough local drinking water. It can be emptied by the pumps shutting down, or salt water reaching the pump entry point. That event, such as would occur with the flooding and collapse during an Ebb tide of the local levees, would doom both San Francisco, San Jose, and Los Angeles, all at once. Too much rides on that. No sane business would allow itself to experience panic over one reasonably high chance of failure thanks to Baby Boomers declining to do maintenance AGAIN. The existing neighborhoods will get a lot of foreclosure signs, and shortly after that, be red-tagged as condemned for health violations. Most have black toxic mold in the walls, and most of the owners don't do maintenance, being Baby Boomers. See the pattern there? The city doesn't make sense. It is time for it to suffer the consequences of its laziness and for the dirt already present to be its primary reputation, rather than claiming itself to be the "Paris of the West", which is famous for dog muck and dirt and crowds. And now, Muslim terrorists. I suppose San Francisco can stay a tourist destination if the surrounding areas empty due to lack of water and lack of jobs. Its going that way, anyhow. Already, it has moved California colleges to the "Avoid" list thanks to the new Cat Lady Law just enacted with the new year.

I'd like to see boom towns start up for new businesses. I think its got a better future than the communists have in mind. Ironic that the pot growers are forced into Capitalism because the Communists are doing their very best to prevent their success. Funny how that is. Leftists are always Splitters. This is a big part of why, along with basic human nature, Communism can't work.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Trying To Sympathize With Communists

It is difficult to resist pointing out how every demand they've made has been tried and failed to defeat human nature, that every demand has resulted in making things worse. Cuba caused starvation and poverty worse than the govt they replaced. They're rather famous for running child-brothels for Canadian pedophiles in Havana. And the US president wants to normalize relations with them. I met a Cuban escape survivor, a few years ago. Said that starvation is so bad in Cuba that people actually die from hunger. Only place in the Western world where that's true. But, the reality is a secondary (important) issue which distracts from understanding what the Communists want. What their optimistic true believers, who aren't willing to commit murder to get their way, want.

So what are they picturing?

  1. Electric cars for everyone.
  2. Electric trains.
  3. Gap year backpacking hostels everywhere pretty.
  4. Free education, all the way through PhD level
  5. Artisan support so artists won't starve
  6. Food kitchens, free meals
  7. Free coffee
  8. Free books and music
  9. Free healthcare
  10. Free childcare and support for unwed mothers
  11. Free housing
  12. Green renewable energy, and safe nuclear power
  13. Robots farming food supply
  14. Most jobs maintenance or healthcare, resulting in extra credits or comforts in life
  15. No pockets (star trek disease)
Wait, nix #15. Still, I think this is what the commies want. Trouble is, most of this is what we actually had during the 1990's. Or close enough to free that everybody could afford it, even on minimum wage. Now inflation has made minimum wage = starvation. Electric vehicles are technically difficult without overhead wires. Overhead wire electric vehicles, like trains and city trams, are common and reliable and use grid power rather than batteries. Reasonable expectations makes those possible, but California's train to nowhere isn't reasonable. It stops too much, it avoids the intelligent route, and it takes longer than it should, even if it gets built, which it hasn't been. I suppose they could fix that. Or use that track as a supporting route, with the main express running up I-5 like it was supposed to. From LA Grand Central right up 5 to a tunnel through the mountains to San Jose grand central station, and another one connecting that station to Emeryville, which has an express to Sacramento, which has expresses to both Reno and Oregon. Good trains would free people from cars. Nice trains, clean and elegant and comfortable, wouldn't stink like a Greyhound Bus does. Those things are like Submarines that don't get cleaned. I think Communists think things get cleaned via magic, much like maintenance. They keep citing civic pride, which doesn't exist, but they believe in it.

The other thing is they probably imagine bicycle tourism hostels, clean, polite, and well maintained, so people touring the country on their gap year via bicycle have a safe place to sleep and a couple meals. Communists have really strange ideas.

If you imagine all these things are possible, completely opposite of human nature which is more about materialism, rape, murder, arson, child abuse, mass murder, and mayhem, things which are contrary to the kind of serious optimism required to think Communism could work in the first place. Really, communists are completely delusional. In the old days we'd just put them into looney bins, where delusional people belong. And they mostly got what they wanted, there. That and drugs to keep them calm. Communists generally fall back onto creating equal poverty and disarmament so the peasants find it harder to revolt. Then they put in the secret police to disappear and torture anyone who complains things aren't good enough. When you've reached the level of propaganda where you terrorize by making people vanish to scare everyone else, your empire is doomed.

If the Commies read more philosophy by cynics they would probably keep to more reasonable goals. Or become civil engineers, since public utilities benefit everyone. Instead of trying to overcome human nature, they would be improving living conditions, which makes life a little easier, and the chance to be better people instead of worse. And in the real world, that's the best you can hope for.