Road Tax

Everybody knows that motorcycles are dangerous. In a car the frame protects you from a crash. On a bike you are outside that frame. You can fall off, which is generally safer if the bike goes down, but don't get between the bike and what it's hitting. That's fine to say, but accidents can be so fast you don't get time to prepare. Sometimes you die. Sometimes you get crippled for life, or maybe face huge medical bills and permanent pain. Accidents on bikes are life changing. I will point out that bicyclists are under most of the same risks and blithely wear almost no protective gear. We see it as exercise and largely ignore the threat of cars running us over. We should think about the risks more.

In Southeast Asia, they call all the blood shed by scooterists and bicyclists killed in accidents on the roads "Road Tax". It's typically grim Asian humor. I suspect only Americans in the USA are optimists. I would call Optimism a conceit of the rich. Americans are rich. We have refrigerators and credit cards and paved roads and reliable electricity. The rest of the world? Not so much. Peak Oil showed me that someday we'll have the same poor standard of living as the rest of the world. I grew up with what modern people would call Third World conditions, since my electric power was NOT reliable, my water supply was contaminated with both e.coli and mercury (with health and sanity problems resulting), and my road so narrow and bumpy having a good suspension and brakes was a literal life-saving requirement... well, I'm used to it. I have different standards. I am prepared for the future. For the dangers and realities of the Post Oil world. I've already lived in it. Its going to be tough to accept the new risks the rest of the world never got to escape.

In a car you can wear comfortable summer clothes, enjoy air conditioning, and your stereo. Its very comfortable. There are many distractions in a car. Its a dreamy place. And you don't always see the oncoming bike. That car roof also protects you from weather and wind. The car is mostly adjustable around you but you pay for that comfort in reduced fuel economy. Most people are travelling ALONE most of the time. So all that weight is where our fuel economy is wasted. Safety and comfort are for rich nations. Those comforts of the big metal cage? That's the past we can't afford anymore. We pissed that away living outside our means for 60 years.

The future is bikes, both pedal and motorcycle. On a bike you have to wear armor and mean it, or you'll die or be shredded or abraded to death in a fall. You need special clothing to deal with heat, with cold, with wind. It costs money. If you gain or lose weight you may have to buy it again so it fits. Bad fitting safety gear can cause more injuries in a crash. A common 250cc bike will average around 70 mpg. A 125cc bike gets you to 110 mpg. That fuel economy is the future, like it or not.

A car has four wheels. If one tire loses grip on a loose surface, the car has 3 more wheels to hold grip, to make the turn, to stay upright. A bike only has two wheels so if one of those loses grip, you'll probably fall. Around here, gravel driveways leave sprays of fine pea gravel on the road where cars pull out. These sprays offer no grip, meaning if you hit the brakes your bike loses grip and falls. You have to coast across them: no brakes, no power, perfectly upright. Do it wrong, you fall. They're even a problem for bicyclists. Going into a corner too fast and not having sufficient grip to brake before the road ends is known as "running out of road". It is the # 1 cause of accidents and death in motorcycling, and much of the time, going too fast in those corners was influenced by road rage or alcohol. So if you ride a motorcycle, don't drink, and don't ride angry. It can kill you. Drunken riding kills and cripples all those Harley riders. Riding to a bar on your Hog is a sign of suicide. They give other motorcyclists a bad name and raise everyone's insurance rates. There is good reason that modern bikes offer ABS as a expensive option. ABS can protect you from losing grip and if you can afford it as a new rider, get it. It could save your life. You still have to do your part.

If you can't do that, get a jeep or a convertible, or check your state laws for riding an ATV on the roads. That's legal in PRK, provided you register after installing fenders, turn signals, mirrors, and other lights. That gets you Prius mileage for about 1/4th the cost.

Another major safety/grip problem is tar snakes. No grip for your tires on the shiny tar. If you hit that in a corner, you may fall when your tire loses grip so they must be dodged or slid across upright with no side stress. Memorizing where those snakes are on your commute road, so you're going slower across that or missing their placement is a key survival strategy. That or stick to 4 wheels. They're even worse when it rains. This is the #2 cause of accident or death for motorcyclists. ABS is even more important with this one, but you still have the dodge the tar snakes.

In a car, you're a big obvious metal crab on the road, and people see you. On a bike you're a slender vertical line and not always perceived by the human eye until after a driver turns across your path, or pulls out into you. Many motorcyclists are blocked by cars pulling out of driveways and end up splattered over the car suddenly, which can be a fatal crash above 10 mph. This is one of those things motorcyclists warn new riders about. Cars are the problem. Empty roads are safe unless you've got a death wish and run out of road on a corner. Cars hitting you or turning in front of you when they just acted like they saw you is the #3 cause of death/accidents for motorcyclists. Defensive driving courses are offered in nearly all states. The basic rule is assume the car doesn't see you, even if they stare, nod, or wave at you. Human beings are crap at perception, and get distracted easily.

Fourth danger is mechanical failure. A low tire, a weak or warped brake, these can kill you. You are supposed to check for these and other issues prior to starting your engine every time you're going to ride it. This is a few minutes work, but necessary, even for a very short trip. Starting the motor and then putting on your gear (helmet, THEN gloves) gives it time to warm up enough to run.

I still need my motorcycle license, then I need my bike chosen and fixed up with the progressive suspension for the shitty roads and the good disc brakes that can survive long steep grades without warping or fading, and maybe that means I should just buy the used Ninja 250 since that's the most cost effective bike capable of tackling the mountains here. I feel like it's too much bike for a 5 minute commute to work. Its a good weekend ride, but if I wanted a weekend ride I'd get a 500cc semi-naked Honda or even buy and restore a 450 Suzuki from the 1980s. There are many choices. Hell, if I could find an older 600cc Ninja inline 4, those are strong and durable engines and a lovely sound. I still prefer vintage, I just don't like Harley.

Honda 1100 cc

The TU250x, which is allegedly "not sold in California" but is apparently physically for sale in every Suzuki dealer's show room, is a more comfortable choice for around town riding like a scooter, but it still a capable road bike but not a freeway bike as it can't go over 45 mph on that gearing setup. The gears can be changed, but it really doesn't have the power for freeway, much less the aerodynamics. Its a naked bike. Its very classic and pretty. Around town, under 45 mph, its fun. And it will do 45 mph all day. You just have to accept the limitations of a 250cc engine, even with fuel injection.

I still see a place for ultralight vehicles here. The original Fiat 500 had a 500 cc 2-stroke motorcycle engine. It was famously slow, but very thrifty with the fuel. The car weighed little and in wrecks kinda doubled as the closed casket at the funeral. Most European safety standards are essentially metal rain covers rather than passenger protection from a wreck. Only America seems to have worked out crumple zones as a safety feature rather than something to insure your death. Ze Germans build unsafe cars too, though the models they sell here comply with our standards. This is why those cool looking cars on Top Gear aren't sold here. They are a joke in crashes. A sad joke where the driver and passengers are all dead as the punchline. That's road tax too.

When you consider that safe cars are also a luxury we can no longer afford, and that safety costs us 10 mpg or more, and our nation is largely bankrupt and only supported financially because the Chinese are buying our worthless savings bonds and T-Bills, something which will eventually stop when the figure out we are going to default and the nation split up into states with no portion of the Federal Debt, well, things will change. We'll look at that and balance the scales and take the risks. The more bikes on the road, the fewer cars to cause the actual deaths. It won't be perfect. Lots more people will die. This is better than everyone starving to death because few people are within bicycling range of their jobs. If you don't work, you don't eat.

Socialism only works till you run out of other people's money. That is what is happening today. The Fed is printing trillions of dollars a year, and the Chinese are buying the bonds. That will eventually pass a tipping point and the dollar will go worthless. Most experts think this will happen when the Prime Interest Rate goes up, something threatened every 3 months. That's the point where we stop being able to buy foreign oil to feed our car economy, and you may find yourself stuck. Stuck. Unable to move, along with everyone else. That's the Day of Shock. The Day our Economy Stood Still.

Most experts expect panic at that point. Food hoarding, gasoline hoarding, riots. I don't know we'll be so disorderly or not, but many things will happen. Eventually they'll give us fuel rationing, and work out how to ship food to the supermarkets, probably with more food rationing cards like during WW2, and we'll buy what is authorized and the lights will sometimes go out and that will suck. But we'll deal. And we'll get thinner.

If you have the motorcycle license and the bike, you can ride to work further than other people carpooling together. You can get there fresh, on your own schedule and leave on your own schedule. The leathers are less of hassle than a carpool twit who's always late and gets everyone in the carpool fired from their jobs. We all know people like that, who consider their petty concerns worthy delays, how they exercise power over others. I knew a guy like that who cost people their jobs. He was really satisfied by it too. He was evil. This is ANOTHER good argument for motorcycles. You don't get fired because of someone else making you late. Retain control of your own destiny. Even if its uncomfortable.

Some of the economy will retain its specialists, and thus retain some of the better skills and products. We'll recover faster the more people have motorcycles suitable for commuting to work. That's why I write this blog. To show people the future that's unavoidable, and offer a rational solution they can prepare for now, including costs of investment, time requirements, and strategies. I think this is healthier than guns and ammo. If you think you need a gun for civil unrest, move somewhere that unrest is unlikely. Defense attorney fees will always be more than rent increases of living in a better area. Running away is free. Fighting might cost your life. Being in jail pays no wage. Do I need to go on? So get a bike and a safe place to sleep. Pick a job that's safe and close. You massively reduce the borrowed trouble of the old world we can't afford anymore. We are post-Disney(tm) survivors. We have to adapt to reality now. It's A Big World After All.