Bicycle Through The Apocalypse?

Well, not exactly, but while bicycles are the coming transportation choice, post affordable oil (because the current dip in oil price is nearly over), the roads that they rely on are going away. So the fancy bicycles like these?

These are going to end up as historical markers, in museums or possibly used in townie races. Real roads are going to become like this:

Narrow, gravel, overgrown with grass, bushes, heavy brush, and possibly with waiting cougars that see people as a meal to consume that just pedals by, gasping and slow. Gravel roads like this as the future. And in this future, which is the present in about half the roads where I live, mountain bikes are the right answer. At this point, I ride on slick tires because they are really fast on smooth pavement, but I hung onto my knobby tires for the future when having those will be crucial again. The trouble with olduvai gorge model of human civilization is you have severe drops in technology, very abruptly, then things mellow out again. A road like this can wash out in one nasty rainstorm, and landslides can erase parts of the road, and culverts can fill, overflow, and the road gets erased, leaving an empty culvert there eventually but the road just fragments above it. That's erosion in the real world. Stuff grows in, stuff collapses, unnatural shapes get overgrown and disappear. While I totally see the real value of Enduro motorcycles to climb that stuff and cross huge distances of these kind of crappy roads, if there's no fuel, they are dead. This is why I still insist that having a mountain bike is the sane preparation for our future. Not guns, but a mountain bike. If you need guns, you are living in the wrong place and kidding yourself about it.

My mountain bike is a steel frame. It lasts and lasts because it is not carbon fiber (so it is not worth stealing and doesn't crack), and has no suspension. It takes a lot more skill to ride it, but the frame is not taking away from my pedaling either. That's a major flaw in mountain bikes. Since the suspension frames flex mechanically when you pedal, something like 15% of your energy is wasted by the frame, thinking its going over bumps. So you're 15% slower than you would be, and 15% more tired. Also, those bikes are heavier due to the suspension components. People correct this by going to carbon fiber frames and aerospace hardened aluminum, which does not do well exposed to common silt like you find on dirt roads. The bearing surfaces of a suspension need to be covered or they get wrecked, and even then they have "operating hours" which is not the same as "days" or "weeks" or "months". Hours. This is problematic unless you happen to own a machine shop that can make the parts or can stock a lot of them up for use. Tricky in a post-apocalyptic scenario. While it is possible that the period of time, of the fuel emergency, may be short, a few months or a year before fuel comes back, it is not wise to bet on this. Much like the essential failure of gun fanatic survivalists who buy more bullets than food and own complete libraries of survivalist movies from the 1980's, you might still face a time where unpaved roads and washouts make them impassible by car and a bicycle is the smart way to cover the distance. In the local canyons that is largely the case. There are gravel roads within the city limits of both Grass Valley and Nevada City. No kidding.

So with these issues and limitations, mountain bikes remain the best choice when roads fall apart. You might even be able to outrun a bear, if you know its coming and you aren't going up a hill at the time. I have considered the front suspension which helps with the nasty bumps, and a disc brake because those work in wet terrain since standard rim-brakes fail when mud gets on them. This means you can ride a mountain bike when its wet out, or on seriously muddy roads. And that's a good idea. It is a lot easier to buy a mountain bike now and get all the fitting and adjustments worked out while parts are available than to wait until there's suddenly no fuel and the commies are saving it for Herr Fuhrer's motorcade. Easier to get a bicycle now, work out what accessories are actually useful, and develop the riding skill. I don't mean go nuts and commute to work daily. Around here that's a nasty climb at least one of the directions, but you Flatlanders have it so easy, so go nuts.

I like that there's many options for bicycles, and that riding rewards strength and endurance. The Amgen Tour of California, pictured above, went past my house at 45 MPH, at the start of a 120 mile day with strong crosswinds of damp delta breeze coming through the Golden Gate, off the Pacific. From here to Lodi is a really seriously long ride. I would find that exhausting and its hard to imagine. Today they're doing a leg through San Jose, and good for them. If this race were with mountain bikes they would be hard pressed to do 30 miles in the same time. You have a go a lot slower, and be more cautious in the corners since gravel isn't known for its grip.

Having the bike and not needing it is better than needing it and not having it. If you don't have it and need it, you either walk or you pay someone to carry your groceries, whatever they charge. Weight being an issue, that can get very pricey, and you gotta eat. It is possible for there to be no fuel, yet still have an economy, still be bill collectors and utilities working. You don't get a free pass because gas stations are empty, suddenly. You still have to get to work and pay your mortgage, even if the mailman comes by with a bicycle or goes back to walking. Real life is hard, and getting to work is your problem, your responsibility. If you don't show up, you don't eat. You get your house repossessed, you get evicted into the street. So think about that the next time we see a huge increase in fuel price, or you change the TV station rather than listen intently to why Iran having nuclear weapons is a bad thing. Are you fit enough to bike to work? If you had to bike to work, would you keep your job? I wonder about these things because I'm often thinking about the future, as a scifi writer should, and its hard to turn these harsh consequences into humor. It needs to be, however. Terry Pratchett has died, and there's a need for humorous scifi and fantasy that doesn't suck. Dealing with poverty is our future because Iran's nukes WILL lead to nuclear war in the Middle East, and radioactive glass doesn't keep our cars on the road, maintaining our comfortable lifestyles of the last 70 years. Our civilization may have peaked, but we still have to live on after the fuel and the roads go away. Our kids and grandkids need us to keep it together.