Apparently, Putin arranged for 42 Pro-Russian Ukrainians to be herded into a church and the place lit on fire, killing them, in order to reference a Nazi attack from the war repeated hundreds of times which really sets off Russians. This gets them to overlook who lit the fire, which all evidence currently points to Putin's own secret police, the FSB. There's also evidence that the apartment buildings bombed a few years ago by "Chechnyans" was also the FSB because they got caught setting explosives on the next one. Hundreds of Russians were murdered in those blasts. So Putin killing 42 Russians to enable invasion of Ukraine? Yes, totally within standard Russian behavior.
I think it is a foregone conclusion that Ukraine is going to get massacred, though I'm not sure if the Russians will settle for taking most of their territory and driving the Ukrainians out of the country in terror, or if they want to kill them all and wipe out the entire country. Destroying Ukraine is an effective terror weapon if you've decided to use your Oil as a pacification threat to keep the EU out of your business while you are taking back the Soviet Union, only this time purely ethnic Russians allowed, none of this tolerance crap they tried last time.
What if this is just the first country they seize? Will Russia stop at Ukraine when this method of attack is so efficient, so effective? I think the Entire EU needs to look at this and think: what if its my country the Russians invade and seize? We already know that Putin was chiseling the EU on oil and natural gas prices by turning off the taps in the coldest parts of Winter, over the last 10 years. This has gotten a lot of not very effective wind turbines built, and not nearly enough nuclear power plants. To get oil from OPEC, the EU had to open their borders to Muslims from Africa and the Middle East, and large populations are now in Paris and Germany, which has made the locals angry since the Muslims took their jobs or added to the social services burden. They now deal with the typical muslim violence. Will Russians start entering Germany and Poland, then demand they hold a vote to join Russia in a few years? Will there be threats to cutoff oil supply if the EU doesn't allow the Vote to proceed, with surprisingly high 98% favor for Russian separatism? How long before all of Eastern Europe is once again behind the Iron Curtain? And keep in mind that Russian oil will run out eventually, too. Just like the oil in the Middle East is running out. Seizing territory to keep your power makes sense when the oil is starting to run out. Threatening to turn off the tap just increases the price and puts the squeeze on those nations dependent on your oil for their continued civilization. Without Oil, Top Gear becomes a very boring show.
Europe is not able to stay civilized without cars. It will drop into wars again because human nature is evil and modern weapons technology is remote operated and incredibly good at killing large crowds of market shoppers, derailing trains, sniping the opposition, or exploding. A small force can cause huge death tolls. What happened in Serbia was really just a trial run for the future of Europe, and Putin is banking on this fear, this threat, to keep everybody in the EU from stomping him over little, worthless, Ukraine. They aren't important, not compared to keeping the lights on and the cars moving and the economy alive in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. So pipe down, alright? That's why this is so horrible. How long before Bulgaria and Slovenia and Lithuania and Estonia and Latvia and Finland and Poland get invaded by Russian Separatists? How many times will this play out? Soon the French won't be the only Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys. All of Europe will. And right about then... Russia will run out of oil, and start killing everybody to keep the violence away from Moscow, the way Empires typically collapse. Without oil, the Russian empire is really doomed because they can't keep the thing going without fast transportation, and destroying rail lines is particularly easy. You can do it with sledgehammers, pickaxes, gasoline, and matches. Modern armies aren't about garrisons. They're about long reaching quick reaction forces. This is why the US military has evolved into this shape. Without oil to deliver their troops and weapons platforms, Russia can't be an Empire. This delusion, of taking it all, won't work, Putin. You are already doomed.
None of this situation sounds very nice for Europe. I suspect that Russia will take Ukraine, consolidate power, and improve on their methods before seizing more territory and manufacturing events to justify massacres nobody will look into very closely. Putin is an Imperialist and knows that you can expand your territory madly growing beyond the ability to manage and gain absolute power in your own lifespan. But Emperors rarely die in bed of old age. If Putin and his troops kill all the opposition locally, within old Russia's borders, they can probably make governing the ruins easier post-oil. I imagine that the prospect to patrols going back to Horses and bicycles once the oil runs out gives their generals pause, but at least horses are understood technology, and electric hover drones might be useful in reconnaissance for mounted cavalry. Europe had better get itself unaddicted to oil ASAP or they're going to have to keep bending over for the clearly insane Putin.
Yeah, because this doesn't just scream "psycho maniac". I wonder when we'll start hearing about Ukrainians shot dead, found in ditches all over the countryside?
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