Drought

So we're having drought. Some wanker at Berkeley is claiming this is the worst in 500 years, but he's full of poop. Its about like what we had in 1976. I was there, so I remember. The cause seems to be a persistent high pressure ridge offshore that's pushing storms north of us so normal rains aren't falling. Considering we got rain last summer when its normally completely dry, I would not be surprised to learn we'll get more of that pattern as the year progresses. And not to say we won't get a blizzard or two between now and June. And various rain storms. And there's the potential for an Atmospheric River event, since I've been through several of those. California makes a nice landing pad for those, and they can carry tremendous amounts of water for days and days of rain and usually flooding. One of those would refill all the reservoirs.

Of course, if we don't get much rain, and no snow, then it starts to get less pleasant. North America and the world in general have a long history of El Nino events which cause drought. These events are easily traced in Africa and can last for decades, destroying complex civilizations since water = food. No food and 3 meals to rebellion, voila, collapse. If we did get unlucky enough to land in a 60 year drought, as that is their typical duration and its FAR TOO EARLY TO SAY, if we did, leaving California to be a desert like Baja Mexico would be for the best. Coastal California (LA, San Diego, Big Sur, North Coast) could install vacuum desalination for human water supply, and minimal farming close to that, but it would be a miserable existence and leaving this behind for better rainfall totals would be the smart move. Where there's water, there's food and people. Generally speaking. The Bay Area gets its water from the Sierras and if there's no rain fall or snow pack, there isn't enough water for those 12 million people. The inevitable consequence of either jacking up prices or shutoffs by contract to protect the rich in San Francisco, who can afford to pay, and the resulting civil uprising to destroy what they can reach (the historic answer to resource wars), is likely to depopulate the Bay Area. Costs for desalination are in the billions, and that's going to be a local tax, paid by everyone who doesn't benefit to help only the rich, who bribed the legislature to give them water. That's how govt works in California. It's quite the opposite of fair. With lots of bribery and unwelcome realities.

I am uncertain as to whether rainfall is normal in Idaho and Eastern Washington and Eastern Oregon or not. I know they got double normal in Nevada during the summer, thanks to all the monsoon rains, but right now? Dunno. If you stay in the West, you may end up with more of the same consequences.

Of course, that's assuming the drought is persistent. And we've had these before. A period of oddly warm winter weather followed by more normal rain storms and brief high pressures like this one. That it hasn't broken up is the weird part, but it shouldn't last. The mechanism for it sticking around is the curiosity.

The big upside to this winter drought is its great to be outdoors to enjoy it. If you own a Motorcycle in California, you can keep riding it. Same with bicycles, which I see around town frequently, mostly the rich race bikes with skinny velodrome tires. Wrong for the roads here, but whatever. A Lamborghini Diablo or Diavel are often the wrong car for the grocery run. Those long doors in the narrow parking spaces. Lack of storage in the trunk. They're just not ideal. Yet people buy them. And people drive various sportscars in this warm dry weather, including convertibles, though its a little chilly in the morning, but on the way home top down is fine. Open the windows during the lunch run. The warm weather is also good for BBQ, gardening, hiking, and photography. Sure, the trees are starting to bud out Spring leaves, since its nearly 80'F every day, and if we get snow later, it will kill them, but what can you do? Its drought.

The thing that worries me about persistent drought is wildfire. If the trees die, there's always a mad arsonist around to flip cigarettes out the window, on purpose, to light it all on fire, and the result is a big fire, burned homes and trees, eventual erosion and more plugged up reservoirs that hold less water for drought periods like this. The other problem with drought is California becomes less desirable when lack of water means dead gardens, no showers, bad tasting drinking water at much higher prices to convince us not to waste it, and the lowering of home values. Good if you want to buy a bargain house, but bad if the drought persists. You're betting against the weather, after all. Do you keep your underwater mortgage house when water costs as much as the mortgage you can't pay because Obamacare costs convinced your employer to cut your hours to avoid all the fees? Nope. You stop paying, and wait for eviction and pay off your credit card debt so you can bail out of California instead. Kinda obvious. Starting over in Tornado Alley is better than staying in a desert with 10x too many people. And I'd know: I'm from here.

If we have to get our drinking water on Baja California (peninsula in Mexico south of San Diego) level rainfall, which is less than 5 inches a year? We're screwed. The state will dry up and burn, the central valley will lose most of its crops and the $5B annual revenue will vanish, meaning no social programs, no paved roads, no water pumping because there's none to pump. No water for high tech industry either. Those can be anywhere, and mostly are. Its inertia and home price investment in mansions by those tech executives that keeps high tech companies in the Bay Area. Not sensible reasons like local education levels which are abysmal. Good people move to jobs. If the high techs moved to Austin Texas the people would follow. Thus California would lose another $1B in revenues. With enough drought, that will happen. There's no good reason to be here in the land of drought.

If the rain doesn't fall and the reservoirs go dry, this complex civilization and all its smug assertions about Social Justice are over. The state govt will pay welfare with their dying breaths, even as they're closing schools and releasing feral children to the tender streets of Oakland, Stockton, and Fresno. We have more in common with Somali pirates than we'd like to think.

"Look at me. Look at me. I am the captain now."

On the upside, if drought persists and the state empties because there's no drinking water and life is crap from all the fires and no open hospitals and Somalian lifestyles, those who live on the coast and manage to get water will have a quieter state to live in, and with no roads because there's no money to fix them, ports will get busier. It will be very scenic, with ruins and burned foundations, like Detroit. I wonder if I could be happy in a trailer park out on the North Coast? Follow the rainfall, solar panels on the roof, bathing from a basin with a washcloth and a gallon of lukewarm water? It would be like Morocco without the kasbah. Good times, right? Doesn't that sound wonderful? Somehow I suspect I'd leave the state instead. Somewhere it rains a bit more. With a future. Come back after the rains do and they've paid for repaving and the state has a small and balanced budget with no welfare moms, and no welfare department.

Good times.