Kepler Syndrome

I am a novelist, sometimes. The writers group I belong to used to spend time debating the merits of various scifi settings and how they impact social organizations.

One of the better ones involving space is Kepler Syndrome, named for planetary motion physicist, Johannes Kepler. The essential idea is sufficient low Earth orbit (LEO) debris will hit more satellites, making enough debris that attempting to launch more satellites to replace the wrecked ones get hit and make more debris. Eventually it is so bad, and there's so much up there, that no launch gets through without making more debris, more projectiles to rip holes through future launches. You have to wait for all the debris to fall before you can attempt to launch more, and any party with a rocket that tries too soon ends up making it worse. And orbital decay rates range from years to centuries.

So Kepler Syndrome has some big consequences. Low Earth Orbit satellites all get destroyed, so satellite radio is doomed, and so are many kinds of spy satellites and some communications satellites. It is worth noting that while GPS are in polar orbits, they're also 26,400 miles out so likely well beyond Kepler Syndrome range, provided nobody starts smacking junk at that orbit or higher, trying to take out geosynchronous satellites at 52,0000 miles to spite unwanted communications while they suppress their population (Iran, North Korea, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) with propaganda. China has the ability to do this, btw. Shoot down a satellite.

So China has already created some Kepler Syndrome debris. It is probable that in future this will go become being a nuisance or vague threat into a real astronaut killer. The International Space Station is running in these low earth orbits and is a prime target for Kepler Syndrome strikes. Considering the debris is moving at astronomical velocities, the old saying about F = MA is frighteningly true: "One, at sufficient velocity."
One what?
Anything, at sufficient velocity. When it is going fast enough it really doesn't matter what it is. That's the nature of Kepler Syndrome, and one of the reasons the US and Russians agreed not to weaponize space. You can't explore if the debris will kill you before you get there. We both had our moments of cold sanity and signed the treaty. China? China has other plans.

Someday we will probably be dealing with the consequences of Kepler Syndrome and our good communications satellites can't be replaced because the 200 years of debris blows up any attempts to get through the mess. It is the sort of crippling outcome that forces people to get more industrious on the ground, and creative with solutions for communications. Maybe all that dark fiber optic cable will get used after all. And maybe Kepler Syndrome is the real reason we never hear from alien civilizations. They blew up their own satellites with debris. It's the sort of irony that makes sense.