Transport Equanimity

I'm reasonably sure that eventually we'll all be riding scooters. They might be electric, but they'll probably be running liquid fuel (alcohol, diesel or gasoline) or natural gas. They are very efficient, if uncomfortable, and the best power to weight ratio for carrying a single person a reasonable distance to work and back. Best being least power, least weight. This is so efficient it is inevitable for personal transportation with expensive oil slowing the economy even more. It is going to happen. So why hasn't it?

1. The roads aren't quite bad enough.
2. The price of gasoline, around $3.80/gal., isn't high enough.
3. The need to give up 4 wheels isn't there yet.
4. Wages aren't low enough.
5. Long commutes still exist, for now.
6. Crappy weather makes it really bad for your health too much of the year.
7. Trailing Delta (MP3) scooters are absurdly expensive.
8. Scooters and motorcycles are considered "toys" not "Transportation".
9. Cars are too cheap to buy used, cheap enough to ignore the poor fuel economy.
10. Speeds are too high on roads.
11. Scooters don't have stereos. We're still obsessed with the personal concert hall.

And keep in mind that when I say scooters, I really mean those are what people will get because they are really really easy to use. Scooters and twist and go, automatic transmission, squeeze the brake just like a bicycle, only no pedaling. It takes a normal person about 10 minutes to figure out how to use one. That's it. And you can park one under a staircase, between trees on the sidewalk, anywhere you can park a bicycle, though few people would park a scooter hanging from the living room wall and they're a bit too heavy to carry up the stairs away from thieves, but not heavy enough not to chain down since two men can lift one into the back up a pickup truck.

We will use scooters unless the roads get too nasty, at which stage the point and twist simplicity of a scooter gets replaced with more limber and effective Enduro motorcycle, probably a 250cc, which requires you to operate a clutch and gearshift and probably wear armor instead of merely bluejeans. Not terribly fashionable, but considerably safer going through brush.

Our roads aren't that bad yet, which is why few people ride scooters. But I think more will, in time. The time is what's holding things back. And if the roads get really nasty, people may skip the scooter and go straight to the Enduro. But we won't do anything until our situation gets worse. Unluckily for us, that appears to be happening.