Economy worse. This is unavoidable. Economies work on inertia, and the housing bubble isn't fully burst, nor is the Derivatives bubble. Until those completely pop, we will remain screwed.
EU dissolves in fighting over payment of German debts caused by sleazy German bankers who gave Ninja loans in Greece and Italy and Spain, now bankrupt due to costs of plane tickets making vacations there expensive, thus vacation properties worthless.
"It's not my fault!"
Note the empty vacation condos and apartments all over Spain.
Most war machines powered by oil (esp. JP8 jet fuel), so wars drastically curtailed. Discussion of foreign wars just that: discussion followed by a sternly worded letter. No more implied invasions "necessary".
Oil supply far lower, gasoline prices far higher. Most California fracked oil exported, leaving locals without oil but plentiful natural gas. Cars convert to CNG, pavement switches from asphalt to cast concrete slabs, electric cars remain a rich kids fantasy.
"Why I am exporting America's future!"
CNG
See all the green steel rebar? Concrete still cracks and shreds in winter snow conditions so that doesn't really last either. Better than just concrete but still not that durable under truck wheels.
International trade transportation shifted from containerships to sailboats due to cost of oil.
US dollar worthless internationally. Most states have own currency backed by something real, like food, gold, rare earth element mining for industrial use.
Rise of toll roads is already being flouted to replace currently free-travel interstates so Feds can shift money to pet projects, trapping the poor in place to starve and die.
High Enduring Unemployment means the jobs aren't coming back. Many of those people shift to vegetable gardening and cheaper food. Lots of eggs eaten, lots of potatoes.
US welfare state collapses. Entire Social Security scheme was a Ponzi confidence game anyway. Free medicine and welfare are done without someone working to pay for it. Since America has no jobs anymore, there is nobody to pay.
"Immigrants are the future of America." - Obama, June 13th, 2014, speaking in California on immigration reform and the current invasion crisis. But what about American kids? Aren't THEY the future of America? Or are you saying American kids have no future? And since their educations are a result of your policies for the last 6 years, doesn't that mean you are admitting you destroyed our kids and turned them into trash with no future? Isn't that another one of YOUR failures? This is Obama's legacy.
Insurance has already collapsed. Rise of cheap neighborhood clinics that only take cash or food for payment. Decline of life expectancy. Many die from infections, malnutrition, and preventable illnesses. More die of malpractice at "alternative health". Dead is very alternative to health.
Franchise-based food corporations collapse due to shipping costs. Non specialized diners replace McDs, BK, etc, using local food sources and actual durable food prep rather than freezers etc.
Grocery stores become smaller while warehouses rebuilt. No more JIT (Just In Time) shipping model. No more cheap stuff from China.
Every town makes its own fuel or uses CNG (compressed natural gas) piped in from national fracking operations. CNG vehicles dominant. Many homes have CNG pumps in their garages. Fuel stations sell CNG.
US power grid unreliable. Most cities have own power plants or PV solar going to sodium batteries. Most homes have roof PV for own use, stored in battery banks and used to preheat hot water heater, run fridge and TV, and backup for CNG gas supply issues. National grid is often down, many states authorize regional/local cutoff as discretion of locals based on need. Rural power grid historical footnote. Air conditioning historical footnote. Daily showers with hot water historical footnote.
United part of States over. Divided States loosely associated for trade, with interstate tariffs based on various local and regional factors. Smuggling across state lines common.
Shipping anything is expensive.
Labor costs lower than shipping costs, so most things that can be done locally, are.
Panama Canal controlled by Chinese military occupation force. Alternative canal under construction in Nicaragua by Chinese contractors from Bay Bridge, many delays and overruns, various failures, project infinitely delayed to deny access to only alternative route crossing in Central America.
Venezuelan/Colombian and Canadian Oil both sold to China exclusively. Likely war to develop between those two countries over control of oil.
Mexican oil sold to USA and EU or China.
Nigeria resembles the set of Blood Diamond.
Muslims generally denied entry to most countries. International terrorism drastically reduced.
States with no self defense rights see drastic drop in women's education levels and far higher death rates, particularly from both suicide after rape and rape-murder.
Most high school graduates enter apprenticeship programs rather that attend college, as tuition costs are massive debt burden and educations useless compared to craft skills in real world jobs. Cost of repaying student loans becomes vote issue and states authorize student loan debt default protections, since most student loan scams out of state federal programs no longer recognized by Divided States Of North America (DiSoNA).
Main means of transportation is bicycle. Middle class with better paying jobs have CNG or alcohol powered scooters. Mom's use CNG powered bubble cars.
Wealthy towns have electric overhead-wire powered streetcars, usually vintage style (think SF muni buses, not Portland TriMet).
SF city for rich and their servants alone. Bay Bridge unsafe, unused. Bay Area largely ghost town due to drinking water rights going to fracking rather than people.
LA empty of its millions since only enough local water supply from rain for 150K people, not the other 12 million living there today. LA is a ghost town.
Most California San Joaquin agriculture over due to fracking demands for water, end of subsidized pumping to LA.
California levees fail. Much farmland lost.
Wildfires increase siltation of existing foothills reservoirs, ending most hydroelectric as well as value of reservoirs. Plan to dredge fails to get funding due to expense of diesel fuel required, govt contracting, and scandal of insider bribery over contract (utterly common Calif. problem).
Malaria and bird flu and meningitis actual health problems again.
Heroin grown domestically major crime problem.
Wild animal attacks significant cause of death. Feral dog packs kill many women and children in ghost towns and ghost cities like Oakland, San Jose, and Detroit.
Food poisoning from non-refrigeration or handling spoilage returns to being a major cause of death.
Ricketts and Scurvy common ailments.
#1 source of food protein is chicken eggs.
Local breweries and distilleries common and legal. Reuse of containers for bottling is typical practice.
Biodiesel more valuable than dope. Biodiesel is a better fuel for a motorcycle than CNG.
Electric heavy rail trains replace diesel engine trains. Most freight carried this way. Most towns get spurs.
Night Watchman becomes a real job again. Armed security common in response to stabby junkies, snipers, arsonists hired by competition, and burglars. With actual warehouses, there is now something to protect.
Home delivery is growth industry. Note that in Japan in the 19th century, rickshaw operators were known to die of heart failure and had noticed drastically shorter life expectancy.
Repairs of existing goods, despite costs of labor, cheaper than attempting to get new part shipped from China. Use of 3D printers to make local replacement combined with labor can fill gap between.
CNC programmer for 3D printing and machining growth industry.
General end to Materialism due to widespread poverty.
Rise of local crafts, including professional knitting, home canning, home shop furniture making, quilting, and local cobblers (shoe maker). Crafts taught via apprenticeship programs, church groups (not bounded by limiting laws which prevent solutions to problems like govt).
Gen X ends up inheriting Baby Boomers debts, votes for US default on pensions. US dollar collapses, destroying Baby Boomer retirement savings, resulting in Uncomfortable Retirement. Those Boomers who apologize to their kids live better retirements than those too estranged to ask for (and actually receive) help.
General famine worldwide resulting from collapse of dollar ironically halting US food (grain) exports. Farmers won't ship if can't get paid. Food shipment receivers unable to cope with sudden demand from fallow fields and lack of local experienced farmers. World population drops 1 billion (note that 2 billion people are currently surviving on American food exports. I figure half of those will survive by turning skinny, desperate, and evil. Historically, famine leads to warlords and civil wars.)
Most African nations collapse without US and China subsidies. Foreign invasion seizes Niger Delta and controls their oil, possibly by NOT pumping it.
Europe goes green and builds nuclear power plants because they have no other choice.
Spain, Italy, and Greece kicked out of EU. Germany attempts to shift own mistakes onto remaining members. France and UK leave EU over debts.
General US withdrawal from global issues and intervention, due to US poverty and deliberate sabotage of US policies.
What difference does it make?
So yeah, those are the highlights for the next 10 years. Plan accordingly. Some of this will happen much sooner, depending on the death toll in Iraq and Ukraine. Any oil embargo would accelerate this. Any dumping of US currency, like Russia started doing a month ago ($12 billion and counting) makes this happen faster too. Also, say goodbye to the International Space Station. The Russians have the right of refusal to carry US supplies and crew to the station, and are already banning export of rocket boosters. Without Soyuz, there is no space station. It will fall out of the sky since there is some atmospheric drag thanks to its low earth orbit. That adds up. Eventually it becomes debris and Kessler Syndrome happens like in Gravity and Planetes.
In the real world, Kessler syndrome ALSO puts stuff into higher orbit, which breaks more stuff. The more stuff up there, the more chances for an orbital strike and unlike the movie, objects tend to be going at velocities in the 12 km/sec range, or faster. You can't see that coming. Your eyes literally can't relay the info to your brain fast enough. Orbital Debris is so scary that its a terrific argument to stay on the ground. And the Chinese have developed anti satellite weapons that can be launched by jet fighter at high altitude, and they WORK.
This is NOT speculation. They confirmed this, as did the USA and EU space agencies. This is a real thing. GPS is way out, so probably beyond reach for now, but maybe not forever. And if they miss they can keep trying. Now imagine your convenient satellite TV stations suddenly go offline and you find out the Chinese shot them down out of spite. The debris is now all over that orbit so can't be used for centuries. Cable TV jacks up their price since they are now a monopoly. Hahaha. Sucker.
Lest you think I am speaking ONLY from Pessimism, recall I live in the Golden State, where miners were supplied with opium so they would stand in freezing melt water straining gravel for gold nuggets and dying of pneumonia. America was rid of suckers, and a lot of merchants supplying miners took gold for payment. The guys selling the Blue Jeans with rivets to hold pockets full of gold nuggets (the actual stated reason for those copper rivets on your Levis) remain the top seller denim jean maker today. Wells Fargo stage coaches carried gold bullion to the mint in San Francisco. California has always been about exploiting suckers for money. Even when it kills them. Sometimes killing suckers if the preferred way to do business. The Golden State is soaked in human blood. And yes, that's terrible. We'd like to think things are better now, but look beneath the surface.
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