Friday, October 25, 2013

Tis The Season

In most states, its already raining and snowing by now. Not in California. Its working its way to 80'F again. Maybe 85'F, realistically. Its been like that every afternoon for the last two weeks. No rain, few clouds, warm even predictable temperatures. Exactly what you don't expect from AGW. In the old days of my childhood, we'd have a steady flow of rains every week at this point, followed by a few weeks of Indian Summer (this warm weather) followed by more serious rain storms and some mild bits of flooding around Halloween and the rest of winter.

Because this is normally rainy season, motorcyclists put up their bikes for winter or polish them one last time, photograph, and sell them on CycleTrader.com or Craigslist or Ebay. This is the time to buy a motorcycle. What didn't sell since Spring is now on sale by the motorcycle shops for big discounts, because its dead inventory they have to store until next Spring, at which point newer bikes will be coming and they need to offload these to pay for those. Scooters are on sale too. This is a good time to be looking around, and make low-ball offers with expiration dates to dealers. They know they'll have to sell at a loss either way. Offer less of a loss, less of a hassle and they'll be more willing to part with a bike.

The same goes for RVs and luxury trailers. While there are some places where Fall is the big sales season, in most its the doldrums because most people use the RV in summer, and store it in winter, preferably somewhere cheap and with the water drained out so nothing breaks in those cold icy nights. I suspect this is when most recent Retirees buy their trailer or RV and pack up the house, take a trip to Yuma Arizona where its warm and there are close to 2 million other Snow Birds flocking to the warmth down there. Its really a pity that Mexico is so lawless and unfriendly, since these folks would go further South if Mexico were a safe country. Oh well. Maybe in the future. Anybody who likes living Western Gunfight lifestyles should totally arm up and move South, pay their bribes, and be the usual level of anarchist. Which works until an angry Mexican father snipes you, gringo. After that business with voter fraud in the last election for El Presidente, there were videos shot of armed compounds on the Yucatan for rich people to cluster together and hide from the rampaging mobs. The mobs got bored and the compounds are sort of backups I guess. Mexican oil is going to run out too, though I imagine they'd do fracking if they wanted, and there were source rocks, not a certainty away from the Texas border. And a million gallons of water per well, too.

Its ironic, but I suppose in the future you may be able to put a fancy RV onto a flatbed train car, like a low-boy, and haul it closer to your site, then tow it the rest of the way with a local rental/service. Not perfect, but Peak Oil is expensive, not completely absent. So expensive poor people can't count on buying it and it stops being the normal way to commute to work. That's Peak Oil. You could probably haul quite a few trailers or RVs from Yuma up to the Rockies or high alpine meadows for the summer, places like Grayeagle would be ideal. Lovely weather all summer long, good fishing, golf, very peaceful. Used to have a ton of restaurants and hotels but those could come back if the money did. The views and the recreation would sell the destination, though. I know that rich Baby Boomers lost quite a lot during the Dot.com and Housing crashes. Many have kept working in hopes to recover some of their retirement savings. Many are getting sick and need to retire. Most will end up renting or selling their homes in the big cities and getting away from it all. They're ideal candidates for trailers and RVs and a scooter on the back. Why not? Its fun.
Put an HDTV on the wall and a PC plugged into that, WiFi at your hookup site, stream Netflix, take "naps" with your honey, go out to dinner several times a week, enjoy the scenery. This is what people want from retirement. And if you get bored with the town, rent a Uhaul to drag it somewhere else. There's lots of mountain towns happy to get tourists, and lots of alpine meadows and good trout rivers and lakes. The airstream trailer above is top of the line, of course, for millionaires, but there are other varieties. Just clean them carefully and don't get frustrated if something breaks. Fix it, don't glare at it and hate yourself for months. Problems have solutions. So be sure you have the money to pay for them. And the tow-driver fees.

I doubt I'll ever have the funds to own one of these. The economy is too broken and looks to stay that way. For normal people, the scooter to get to work at a minimum wage, part time job, or series of them, will be the best we can manage. That's today's new college grads, guaranteed poverty through student loans. I pity them. Most are going to need to put many to a house just to cover rents and many will probably be working under the table to avoid debt collectors after their student loans. I suspect the Underground is going to get busy, and the finger pointing will be vicious. I've read about anti-Vagrancy laws during the Great Depression, and roadblocks used to keep them out of towns to cut down on crime. I could see those coming back, both the roadblocks and the vagrant laws. Not nice at all, but life rarely is.

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