Friday, September 27, 2013

So Big Its Empty

The universe is big. Really big. I was a physics major before I switched to geology. Just because my IQ for geometry is 165 doesn't mean I'm good at regular Calculus. Math is mean like that. Anyway, in physics, there's a branch called Cosmology, which has nothing to do with Cosmetics and everything to do with the origin and structure of the universe, starting with the Big Bang and a little bit before that. Understanding that is the Final Technology, more important than biological immortality or mere artificial intelligence of the Singularity type. Though the Singularity MAY lead to the others. I suspect we'll want to progress quite a bit in how we organize ourselves and treat each other before we start exporting our problems to space or giving our unstable idealists access to genocide weapons. There are many things worse than Nuclear weapons, after all. Mass driver engines and rocks at 0.3 c would be very bad. Lets just say there are some secrets worth keeping.

So the universe is big, amazingly big, 12.5 billion light years to the edge from wherever we are in it. Probably somewhere near the middle. Mere galaxies are enormous. And they're finding lots of planets around stars now that astronomers know how to look and do the calculations from existing data. And that's pretty amazing. However, the universe is BIG. And the necessary qualifications for a planet that is stable enough and possesses enough feedback loops and the right temperature range, gas mix, and under the precise type of yellow star, with sufficient magnetic field, and a moon for a tidal zone since air breathing life only exists because of that. If a sun is even slightly blue its fatal levels of UV despite what "looks cool" in Hollywood movies and video games. Taking all that into account means Earth-like planets that COULD support life are going to be really really rare. And keep in mind that there's been life on earth for 450 million years before it came to us in the last 133,000. Sapient, self aware, tool using, and intelligent. Capable of civilization and real technology beyond stone tools and fire. There's been many other species which got nowhere. Even if we find another planet like ours, its likely in the amoeba or sea bugs or bacterial colonies stage if there's anything. And its unlikely to have the same DNA base-pairs we have either. The odds are strongly against it. There's 50 base pairs. We use 4 of those. Everything on Earth uses the same 4. Always has, too. See how the math is not favorable?

And its not an infinite number of potential earths. Its a finite number, despite the size of the universe. We'd have a much easier time trying to communicate to a lower or higher level universe, assuming that Onionspace aka Inflation turns out to be true. If that hypothesis could be proved then we'd have a potentially infinite number of earths to visit and space craft wouldn't be needed at all. Just portal to the next one. However that ends up getting done. A lot easier on resources.

The universe is so big, even if there's intelligent life out there capable of sending and receiving a signal, the odds are it will be millions of years before a signal can be received and the same to send back. Maybe hundreds of millions of years. Not the best for conversation. This is because space is really big. Like Douglas Addams big.

For all practical purposes, as far as intelligent life is concerned, we may as well be it. Space is too big to think we're getting rescued from our own mistakes by benevolent aliens. I want you to think about that. We are alone in the universe, or as good as alone. It doesn't matter if others are out there. They're too far away. Relativity says they can't get here faster than light speed. Which just isn't that fast in a universe that's 12.5 billion light years to the edge. FTL is a fun magical thing which is sadly for kids. It cheats the facts and its not real. I'm sorry. No warp drive. No getting out of here. No leaving our mess behind for those too afraid to jump into The Black.

We're stuck here. We'd best grow up, mature, and accept the facts. This is our mess, we must clean it up so our kids don't hate us when we're gone. We've had generations of lame egomaniacs who think the world is a pig sty they can trash, and space opera told them they can trash it more because Aliens will just clean it up for us. Aliens replaced angels from religion for the compulsively irresponsible sector of society.

This bothers me because I can see where critical technologies for improving living standards can reduce some of those murder-inducing stresses like famine and drought. They have unintended consequences too, don't get me wrong. Nothing beats responsible land management practices and birth control and proper education. And responsible voting rather than greedy.

That said the fact we're as good as alone in the universe means we have responsibility to grow up, settle down, and do our own careful terraforming using tried and true methods and some newer stuff like cheap solar and cheap desalination. I'm a fan of deep resources too, so managing forests and wild game for emergency food supply, refilling fossil water aquifers with canals, irrigating deserts and planting crops and helping the third world do the same so there is plenty for everyone to eat, everywhere people live, that's important. Save the world heritage sites, but feed as many as you can, and educate them so they aren't going to turn into armies of crusaders bent on 0.3 c projectile pilots.

I've explained previously the values of grand canals in the USA, and the use of cheap desalination for Baja, Namibia, Western Sahara, and Australia. Irrigating those manually and planting crops and restoring jungles would be huge. Deliberate biodiversity is something already happening with Wheat to protect crops from Rust, a fungus that kills wheat plants. Water to grow food and prevent famine. Science to improve the soil crops are grown in and the crops themselves. Turn the whole planet into a proper garden. Maybe we can get past the violence and barbarism that plagues our species and actually make some progress for everybody who wants it, instead of merely the top 1%: the USA and the Western world alone. We can do better without dragging the top down. Raising basic living standards is the right answer.

And we have to because the alternative to responsibility is passing on the mess to our kids and grandkids and who knows how bad that would be? I shudder to think.

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