Sunday, June 30, 2013

Economics of Survival

The thing which tends to drive survivalists nuts is not the tinfoil hat theories or divisive politics. Its the economic costs. Stocking up a bunker, after buying the land, buying the building materials, building the bunker, becomes a huge problem because you want the ideal world where your bunker is built, just barely tested, all human comforts installed sustainably (survivalists are supposed to be sustainable) and then the apocalypse should happen, very quickly, then the survivalist should have just enough ammo and food to take over the surrounding area, impose law imperiously using guns and probably a bible and some kind of rhetorical manifest, and proceed to run things because everyone knows that surviving a disaster is the same thing as being a leader. Ahem. All this stuff is expensive, and quitting your job and moving to the boonies to escape the really irritating and dangerous humans also removes you from income, plants you in minimum wage, part time, employment country with the high costs of a long commute when the gasoline is running out, and the high costs of delivery of critical survival supplies (mechanical parts for labor saving devices, food, medicine) and no matter how smart you think you are, you WILL make mistakes on your forecasting.

Yeah, see all the logical fallacies? In reality, survivalists are frequently people who've been hurt by other people, usually socially but sometimes physically through violence, go into retreat and revenge mode and wait for everyone else to die. Its wishful thinking, the petulant pouty kind that adults shouldn't drag their families into, but sadly do, ending their marriages much of the time. And so far, survivalists just keep waiting. That's not to say a big die-off won't happen. Historically die-offs and invasions are common and frequent. If you wait by the river long enough, your enemy will push you in. (me)

Passivism is rarely the right answer to disaster. Waiting it out may be a satisfying form of schaedenfreude, and god knows Farmers love that, but survivalists just want to shoot people and get away with it, or lord over the blacked out countryside, pretending their property rights matter to the mob of officially authorized and deputized locals coming to take it for the Public Good. That's what happens in the real world, such as Albania did recently. When govt collapsed, they raided the local National Guard armories, and every male had a military weapon and magazines of ammo strapped to him within hours. Not legal hunting rifles, but full auto military weapons. Force multipliers. Any legally bound survivalist prepper would be fully outgunned, and the instant militias formed to seized horded food, generators, etc under direct police and mayoral authorization so it was legal theft. Shooting at them as they busted the door down just got you killed, not thanked. This is Not the fantasy that survivalists build up. Rights go out the window in a disaster. So does the very concept of Justice.

I try to teach them these realities and explain that poor social skills cost a lifetime, and that real survivalism requires community interaction, making your neighbors stronger without them necessarily noticing, paying extra for localized everything, and making contacts so folks in power during the collapse don't consider you a tasty meal, hopefully metaphorically. It means doing social things and endlessly paying for and supporting local charities. That is a lot of time and money, trying to buy your way into a community that you will STILL be sacrificed from first because you weren't born there. This happens over and over in the real world, in historical disasters the new folks, even generations back, get sacrificed first. Ergo, moving to a new town and trying to fit in probably won't work. I'm sorry, it just won't. And the social mistakes that drove you out of your own home town? Those linger behind you, and stay with you, coloring your perceptions of interactions, likely poisoning your future in the new place. In the end, there's no protection from your own failings but shallow relationships and permanent mobility. Telling yourself that you won't be sacrificed is nuts.

This is why I favor Mobility as the strategy, not dying in place. Don't be a DIP. This is a point of respected difference between my Bunker friend and I. He's building tougher and tougher bunkers, I'm going lighter and staying agile, mobile. There's a reason there were so many mobile tribes in the Plains and West when the settlers arrived. Yes, you can dig wells, and build houses. Those wells go dry. The houses blow away in tornadoes. How much futility do you want? Big piles of stuff is just a big honkin target for local looters with badges and a warrant. Be mobile, pay the travel bribes when you must, leave the bad places behind. We're dying out either way, willfully self destructive with our arrogant compassion, our false humility. This is no substitute for realism and courage.

The other point of reality to make to Survivalists is Bad Luck is always a factor, and it can't be controlled. You can reduce it, but sometimes you're just screwed. Insisting you have eliminated bad luck from the equation is madness, pure self delusion. I can often spot your security flaws as I'm walking up, and I'm not a professional burglar, just observant. Your bunker is not SAFE, any more than a trailer is bulletproof or unable to get a flat tire or jackknife in an accident. Stuff happens. You gotta roll with the punches.

The point is that you can't plan for disasters so much as survive them when they happen and reduce your dependence on fixed positions or bad mindsets. No amount of money spent will cure a bad plan. Since 1970, we're all unintentional survivalists or pending suicides. I've interacted with both kinds of people. Time will tell which is which.

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